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송근석(Keun Seok Song),이충기(Choong Ki Lee) 한국관광연구학회 2006 관광연구저널 Vol.20 No.2
Accuracy is an underlying criterion among other factors since it is important to tourism planners and industry managers. In this respect, this study aims to compare forecasting accuracy in terms of MAD, MSE, RMSE, RMSPE, MAPE, and Theil`s U. For this end three forecasting models including Naive, Holt exponential smoothing, and ARIMA models were developed using Japanese inbound tourist data from 1966 to 2003. The results of this study indicate that in the backcasting(within sample) accuracy test, ARIMA model performed best followed by Naive and Holt models in terms of MAPE, whereas in the ex post forecasting (post sample) accuracy test, Naive model performed best followed by Holt and ARIMA models. It is interesting to note that ARIMA model performed least when forecasting accuracy was tested in terms of ex post forecasting. The results suggest that tourism forecasting models should not necessary perform best in both within sample and post sample periods. This implies that ex post forecasting may be appropriate to be carried out in order to improve accuracy of ex ante forecasts. Policy implications for tourism planners and practitioners were provided at the end of conclusion section along with future research directions.
신약개발을 위한 안전성평가의 쟁점 (Ⅰ): 전임상 독성 및 독성동태시험 관련규정과 실제 고려사항
문병석(Byoung Seok Moon),송근석(Keun Seog Song),조대현(Dae Hyun Cho) 한국독성학회 1999 Toxicological Research Vol.15 No.3
In the recent years, many changes were implemented for the pre-clinical and clinical study according to the international trend of harmonization in methodology of the safety assessment and efficacy evaluation on new chemical entity and biological products. The triggers happened in the medicinal field such as mistakes in the formulation of children's syrup, thalidomide tragedy, etc. lead to establish the system for the product registration. After the I970s there was a rapid increase in laws, regulations and guidelines for evaluating and submitting data on the quality, efficacy and safety of new medicinal products. According to the globalization of market, regulatory authorities and industrial agencies have met the demand to harmonize several aspects in the course of new drug development and marketing approval. In the 1980s European Union moved to harmonization of regulatory affairs and consequently achieved a single market. International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) was born under this trend to achieve the harmonization of the technical requirement for the new drug development and completed its first phase activities. This article is intended to review the current regulatory affairs and practical considerations for the new drug development specifically in safety aspects.