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구조변화(Structural Change)하 관광수요 시계열 자료의 특성에 관한 연
김상혁(Sang Hyuck Kim) 한국호텔외식관광경영학회 2013 호텔경영학연구 Vol.22 No.5
The previous studies to forecast outbound tourism demand usually adopted several types of unit root tests (ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS, NG-Parron) for examining the stationary of time-series data. However, those tests might be weak when the time series data has structural breaks. Thus, this study utilized the LS test that was developed by Lee and Strazicich (2003) to consider the structural breaks for unit root test. The quarterly time series data of Korean outbound tourists were gathered from 1990 1Q to 2011 4Q. As shown in the results of unit root test that consider the two structural breaks in data, the Korean outbound tourists data would be stationary. This result insisted that Korean outbound tourist data were not needed for the differencing of data to get data stationary. In addition, the PMSE test was used to check which model would be more powerful to forecast the demand of Korean outbound tourism. The PMSE test results supported that the model that considers two structural breaks had the smallest value of PMSE. In conclusion, the unit root test that considers structural break would be the most appropriate pre-test method to get the correct forecasting for the demand of outbound tourism.
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시변 공적분 회귀모형을 이용한 외식 수요의 소득탄력성 추정
김상혁 ( Sang Hyuck Kim ),제상영 ( Sang Y. Jei ),박성용 ( Sung Y. Park ) 한국재정정책학회 2011 財政政策論集 Vol.13 No.4
이 논문은 1985년부터 2008년까지의 외식수요와 국민총소득의 시계열자료를 이용하여 소득탄력성을 추정하였다. 외식수요와 소득의 장기적 안정적인 균형관계를 설정하기 위해 시변하는 공적분 회귀모형을 사용하였다. 분석결과로 다음 세 가지 경우를 발견할 수 있었다: (i) 외식수요와 소득 간에는 시변하는 안정적인 장기균형관계가 존재하였다; (ii) 추정된 소득탄력성이 1보다 크게 나타나 외식이 사치재라는 것을 알 수 있었다; (iii) 시변하는 장기 소득탄력도는 다음의 세 구간으로 나누어질 수 있었다. 첫 번째 구간으로는 1985년부터 1990년까지로 이 기간에는 소득 탄력도는 꾸준히 증가하였다. 두 번째 기간은 1990년부터 2002년까지로 소득탄력도가 1.552에서 1.610사이에서 변동하였다. 세 번째 기간으로는 2002년부터2008년까지 인데 이 시기에는 소득탄력도가 꾸준히 감소하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. This paper studies the income elasticity of eat-out demand using time series data from 1985 to 2008. In order to catch the long-run stable relationship between eat-out expenditure and income a time-varying cointegrating regression model has been used. There are three interesting findings in our empirical analysis: (i) there exists a time-varying long-run stable equilibrium between eat-out demand and income variables; (ii) the estimated long-run income elasticities are greater than 1 for whole time horizon, which implies eat-out is a luxury good; (iii) the behavior of the long-run elasticity can be characterized by three time intervals. From 1985 to 1990, the long-run income elasticities have a monotone increasing pattern. From 1990 to 2002, the income elasticities fluctuate between the values 1.552 and 1.610. The income elasticities show a monotone decreasing pattern from 2002 to 2008.
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모바일 환경에서 기업의 소셜네트워크 서비스 품질에 관한 연구 : 몰입 및 충성도에 따른 집단간 인식차이를 중심으로
김상혁(Kim, Sang-Hyuck),양재훈(Yang, Jae-Hoon) 한국통상정보학회 2012 통상정보연구 Vol.14 No.3
본 연구는 모바일 SNS 사용자들의 몰입 및 충성도에 따라 집단을 구분하고, 각 집단이 인식하는 모바일 SNS의 정보품질과 시스템품질 차이를 측정하는 것이 목적이다. 실증연구를 위해, 먼저 빈도분석을 통해 표본의 특성을 제시하였다. 요인분석과 신뢰도분석을 통해 각 요인을 구분하고 타당성 및 내적일관성에 대해 검정하였다. 또한, 몰입 및 충성도를 바탕으로 계층적 군집분석과 비계층적 군집 분석을 통해 집단을 분류하였다. 분류된 군집별로 모바일 SNS의 품질요인에 대한 차이가 있는지를 규명하기 위해 분산분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 정보품질과 시스템 품질에 대한 몰입과 충성도의 차이에 따른 집단 간 차이가 있으며, 몰입의 정도와 충성도가 높은 집단일수록 모바일 SNS의 서비스 품질에 대한 인식이 높게 나타나고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 이는 기업은 급변하는 모바일 환경에서 SNS를 통한 제품 및 서비스의 정보제공이 소비자들을 유인할 수 있는 중요 전략이 될 수 있다는 것을 인식해야 하며, 몰입 및 충성도의 정도에 따른 집단별 맞춤화 전략을 시행해야 함을 시사한다. 또한 몰입의 정도가 낮은 집단을 대상으로 모바일 SNS의 사용자들의 몰입의 효과를 극대화 시킬 수 있는 컨텐츠와 어플리케이션을 개발해야 한다. The purpose of this study is examining the differences of mobile SNS s service quality, which consists data quality and system quality, among the groups that are classified by commitment and customer loyalty. For the experimental analysis, the frequency analysis was performed for general characteristics of sample. The variables were selected by factor analysis that also prove the validity of variables. The value of Cronbach s alpha was calculated to check the reliability of variables. In addition, the group was determined by the both hierarchical and hierarchical cluster analysis, then ANOVA was performed to test the hypotheses that there are differences of mobile SNS s service quality, among the groups that are classified by commitment and customer loyalty. The results of this study support that there are differences among the groups toward mobile SNS s service quality and also shows the more commitment and loyalty group is the higher recognition of mobile SNS s service quality. Thus, the companies have to realize that mobile SNS is very important key factor to success in rapidly changing business environment. In conclusion, the companies implement different customized strategy for the different group and develop the contents and the applications to maximize the commitment and loyalty of for the mobile SNS users.
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대기오염이 실내·외 도시관광지 수요에 미치는 영향: 초미세먼지를 중심으로
김상혁 ( Kim Sang Hyuck ) 한국이벤트컨벤션학회 2021 이벤트 컨벤션 연구 Vol.17 No.2
Purpose-As increasing the negative impacts of the Particular Matter2.5(PM2.5), the research interest regarding the negative effects of the PM2.5 on tourism industry has been increased. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of PM2.5 on urban tourism demand by comparing the outdoor and indoor tourist attractions. Design, data, and methodology-In order to examine the effects of PM2.5 on the demand of urban tourist attractions, time series data analysis was conducted. The monthly data from Jan, 2014 to Dec, 2019 were gathered from secondary data base. The number of visitors to major tourist attractions in Seoul, Korea was used as a dependent variable and monthly PM2.5 concentration was used as an independent variable. For the control variables, precipitation, unemployment rate, travel expenditure per person, consumer price index(Lodging fee), the number of foreign tourists, and seasonal dummies were used. Result-The empirical results showed that PM2.5 are differently influenced on the demand of outdoor and indoor tourist attractions. First, PM2.5 has negative effects on outdoor tourist attraction. However, there are no significant effects on indoor tourist attraction. Conclusions-The results of this study support the prior studies that found there is a different effect on the demands between indoor and outdoor tourist attraction due to the air-pollution.
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김상혁 ( Kim Sang Hyuck ),송희원 ( Song Hee Won ) 한국이벤트컨벤션학회 2022 이벤트 컨벤션 연구 Vol.18 No.2
Purpose -The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of transportation accessibility improvement on the tourism spatial interaction and on the tourism spatial structural change as time passed. Design, data, and methodology -The research design for this study is fold three parts. First, gravity model was used to measure the tourism spatial interaction. Second, the effect of opening high-speed rail was identified by conducting the random-effects model. Third, the mean center and standard deviation distance analysis were used to identify the change of the tourism spatial structure between each region that has high-speed rail station The annual panel data from 2010 to 2019 was used to conduct the empirical analysis. The data were gathered from the Origin-Destination statistics provided by the Korea Transport Database. Result -The empirical results show that the opening of high-speed rail increased the tourism spatial interaction between each region that has high-speed rail station. In addition, the mean center of tourism spatial interaction has moved from the metropolitan area to regional area, since the high-speed rail has been opened in 2017. Conclusions -The study reveals that the improvement of transportation accessibility increases the tourism spatial interaction as well as alleviates the concentration of the tourists in the metropolitan area.
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김상혁 ( Kim¸ Sang Hyuck ) 한국이벤트컨벤션학회 2020 이벤트 컨벤션 연구 Vol.16 No.4
Purpose - The purpose of this study is to identify the spatial effects among the convention centers in Korea and to examine the efficiency of the convention centers in Korea with spatial effects. Design, data, and methodology -The data was gathered from the statistics of the Association of Korean Exhibition Industry. The samples were limited to 13 convention centers in Korea from 2014 to 2018. The input variables used in the study were the size of the exhibition hall and the size of the conference room, as well as the output variable was the number of events held annually. The Moran’s I and the Spatial Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SSFA) were used for the empirical analysis. Result - The empirical results show that convention centers in Korea have the spatial effects between the convention centers in terms of distance, and the efficiency of the convention center were increased by the distance between the convention centers is closer and the size of the exhibition hall is larger. Conclusions -The efficiency of the convention centers in Korea have been influenced by a spatial effect. It implies that the convention has an cluster effect. Thus, the distance between convention centers can be considered as a factor for enhancing the efficiency of convention centers in Korea
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시변 공적분 회귀모형을 이용한 주류소비 지출의 소득탄력성에 관한 연구
김상혁(Sang Hyuck Kim) 한국호텔외식관광경영학회 2012 호텔경영학연구 Vol.21 No.4
The purpose of this study is reexamining the income elasticity of alcohol drinking expenditure using time series data from 1990 to 2008 with Time-varying cointegrating regression model. The real GNI and the real alcohol drinking expenditure data were gathered from 1990 to 2008. The results of this study show the long-run income elasticity to alcohol drinking expenditure can be characterized by three time intervals. From the first quarter of 1990 to third quarter of 1994, the long-run income elasticities have a monotone increasing pattern. From the fourth quarter of 1994 to second quarter of 2001, the income elasticities have a decreasing pattern. The income elasticities show increasing pattern again from second quarter of 2001 to fourth quarter of 2008. In conclusion, the income elasticity of alcohol drinking expenditure was different, as time was passed. In other words, there was a time-varying long-run stable equilibrium between alcohol drinking expenditure and income. In addition, alcohol drinking is not a luxury good, but a necessary good, because the estimated long-run income elasticities from this study was less than 1 for whole time horizon.
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