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출산력저하(出産力低下)에 영향을 미치는 요인분석(要因分析)
이화영 ( Hwa Young Lee ),고갑석 ( Kap Suk Koh ) 한국보건사회연구원 1981 保健社會硏究 Vol.1 No.1
An attempt has been made in this paper to find out the direct and indirect effect of demographic & socio-economic factors on fertility using path diagram with areal data. Those variables were selected on the basis of substantive theories of factor proximately influencing fertility and from other empirical studies. Main findings were as follows; 1. With regard to the direct effects on fertility. the mortality (5-19 ages) turns out tc be the most significant factor among those considered In determining the fertility level in 1975 for both urban and rural area. 2. With regard to those variables directly affecting nuptiality in turn, density of population for whole country and urban area appear to be an important factor. But for rural area women`s schooling (30-39 ages) turns out to have the most effect on nuptiali-ty (15-19 ages). 3. On the factors influencing the mortality, density of population for whole country, T.V. ratio for urban area and women`s schooling (30-39 ages) for rural area appear to be an important factor. 4. On the factors affecting the weighted cumulative acceptance rate per 1,000 mar-ried women. density of population. mortality (5-19 ages) and doctor & pharmacist ratio per 10,000 persons turn out to be an Important factor for whole country, urban and rural respectively.
Transition to the Small Family: A Comparison of 1964-1973 Time Trends in Korea and Taiwan
John A. Ross,Kap Suk Koh(高甲錫) 한국인구학회 1977 한국인구학 Vol.1 No.1
While both Korea and Taiwan are unquestionably passing through the fundamental transition from large to small family size, there are similarities and differences between the two countries. Both have had a rise in age at marriage, Korea more so, contributing to a significantly delayed pattern of childbearing, Associated with this are period age-specific rates that in Taiwan run higher at young ages, but lower at the older ages. Both societies have greatly increased their use of birth control at all ages, parities, and education level, with Taiwan rising to higher levels at the upper ages, a brake via birth control that compensates for excess fertility associated with younger marriage. Korea has used abortion more, Taiwan used female sterilization and contraception more. At specific ages and family size compositions, more Taiwanese women say they want to stop having chidren, but they have about the same ideal family size preferences as Korean women. Son preference is strong, in the two societies, and persists even while the ideal numbers of both children and sons has declined. Social class differentials in contraceptive use have greatly lessened. Finally, both societies saw early and large changes in behavior before any strong modification in ideal family sizes. Despite a high ideal family size however, the proportions of women who personally wanted no more children were very high even in 1965, showing the strong incongruence between norms and personal intent that so often accompanies deep social change. Between 1965 and 1973 new behavior rapidly brought desire and practice into better harmony, as those wanting to stop childbearing took up birth control control practice. This occurred more fully in Taiwan than Korea, but as of 1973 the residual discrepancy was still substantial. In connection with the notable acceleration of change in both places in the 1971-1973 period, one point requires mention. In 1971 in both Korea and Taiwan intensive campaigns of public education began stressing the two child family norm, with the Korean one urging couples not only to stop at two chidren but to do so regardless of their sex. While a rigor ous assessment of the effects of these educational programs cannot be made, evdeince from independent sources in both places is consistent with the judgment that they had consider-able impact. There also exists the strong possibility that a kind of take-off point had been reached in the accelerating transition to the small family. Subsequent surveys, checking and extending the trends so far visible, will do much to clarify these questions.