A Critical Evaluation of the IMF's Policy Suggestions in East Asia

원용걸 서울市立大學校 産業經營硏究所 2005 産經論集 Vol.19 No.1

This paper critically evaluates the policy programs in East Asia recommended by the IMF, in particular focusing on the appropriateness of the austerity measures and high interest rate policy. The main purpose of the paper is to argue that the IMF's initial policy prescriptions amplified the financial panic, and thus exacerbated the crisis situation by overlooking the nature of the crisis. In so doing, the paper defies conventional wisdom, and shows based on existing theoretical and empirical models that excessively tight fiscal and monetary policy might have worsen the situation when the exchange rate overly depreciated. The paper also argues that high interest rate policy indeed increased the vulnerabilities of debt-ridden corporations and already weakened financial institutions, thus destabilizing the economy and deepening recessions in the region. In addition, the paper reviews the unorthodox policy measures, capital controls under a fixed exchange rate system, adopted by the Malaysian government amid the crisis, and then provides a rationale for those measures. The paper finally emphasizes that the IMF's policy suggestions should carefully take into account the structural characteristics of a specific crisis economy as well as the nature of the crisis before being delivered.

Nonlinear Cardiac Dynamics and Morning Dip : 위험한 일중리듬 An Unsound Circadian Rhythm

염명걸,김남수,오재원,김창렬,이재웅,김순길,이철범,노정일,최정연,윤용수 대한순환기학회 1998 Korean Circulation Journal Vol.28 No.3

Exchange Rate Changes And Income Distribution

Yong Kul Won 한국경제학회 2008 The Korean Economic Review Vol.24 No.1

최근 경제위기들과 ASEAN 주요국의 무역

원용걸 ( Yong Kul Won ) 한국동남아학회 2010 동남아시아연구 Vol.20 No.3

The recent global financial crisis triggered by the sub-prime mortgage debacle in the United States hit hard most ASEAN countries that have just recovered from the unprecedented economic crisis ten years ago. This paper, using individual time-series and panel data from 1990 to 2009, intends to investigate and compare the impacts of the two aforementioned economic crises on trade in the four developing ASEAN countries that encompass Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In doing so, the paper traces the behaviors of main macroeconomic variables before and after the crises on graphs, and then estimates classical export and import demand functions that include real exchange rate, home and foreign GDPs as explanatory variables. In the estimation functions, two dummy variables are added to consider the effects of the two economic crises separately. Individual country data analyses reveal that by and large the 1997 economic crisis seems hit those ASEAN countries` exports and imports harder than the recent global financial crisis. Surprisingly the recent financial crisis turns out more or less statistically insignificant for those countries` export and import performances. The fixed effect model estimation using panel data of those four ASEAN countries also shows that the 1997 economic crisis had affected exports and imports of those countries negatively while the recent global financial crisis was not statistically significant. These results indicate that overall the effect from the 1997 crisis was more devastating than that of the recent global crisis for those ASEAN countries.

평가절하의 경기위축적 효과와 노동시장의 역할

원용걸 ( Yong Kul Won ) 한국국제경제학회 2007 국제경제연구 Vol.13 No.2

한 - ASEAN 간 무역 및 직접투자 관계분석

원용걸(Yong Kul Won) 한국국제통상학회 1999 국제통상연구 Vol.4 No.2

Korea and ASEAN had experienced a rapid growth of bilateral trade and foreign direct investment(FDI) flows before the advent of Asian financial crisis. This paper intends to explore trade and FDI relations between Korea and ASEAN during 1988~1995. Several descriptive analyses show that Korea`s FDI on ASEAN was positively related with its exports to ASEAN as a whole. Industry-level study also reveals that a positive relationship of trade and FDI between Korea and ASEAN in major manufacturing sector can be found. From the analysis, it is emphasized that trade and FDI between Korea and ASEAN had a complementary relationship, and Korea`s FDI on ASEAN should be focusing more on production for local consumption expecting a larger and more integrated ASEAN market.

환율의 평가절하와 소득분배: 이질적인 경제주체 모형

원용걸 ( Yong Kul Won ) 한국경제학회 2012 經濟學硏究 Vol.60 No.1

본 논문은 개도국 경제에서 환율의 정책적 인상(평가절하)에 따른 생산요소 소유자들의 실질소득 변화를 일반균형 동태적 최적화 모형을 이용하여 고찰하려 한다. 이를 위해 노동자, 교역재부문 자본가 및 비교역재부문 자본가가 각각 최적화의사결정을 수행하는 이질적 경제주체 모형을 구성한 후 평가절하 이후 실질임금 및 양 부문 자본가 실질소득의 동태적 변화를 살펴본다. 더 나아가 본 모형의 결과를 대표적 경제주체를 가정한 Won(2008)의 연구결과와 비교함으로써 대표적 경제주체 모형에 대한 기존의 비판이 타당한가를 검토한다. 모형의 시뮬레이션결과, 평가절하는 장기적 중립성에도 불구하고 중?단기적으로 모든 경우에 있어서 비교역재부문 자본가의 실질소득을 감소시키는 반면 교역재부문 자본가의 실질소득을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 노동자들의 실질임금은 양 부문 요소집약도 및 수입자본재의 비중 등에 따라 증가 또는 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 도출과정의 복잡함에도 불구하고 본 모형의 결과는 정성적으로 뿐 아니라 정량적으로도 대표적 경제주체를 가정한 기존 모형의 결과와 놀라울 정도로 흡사했다. 이러한 결과는 대표적 경제주체모형의 사용을 둘러싼 논란에 대한 하나의 대답을 제시하고 있다고 할 수 있다. This paper analyzes the impact of policy-induced exchange rate changes (devaluations) on the functional income distribution between owners of different production factors in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the small open economy that produces traded and non-traded goods. In this heterogeneous agents` optimization model, workers are assumed to move freely between the sectors with a flexible wage rate while installed capital is sector-specific and new capital goods are constructed by combining non-traded inputs with imported machines. Various simulation results show that real return on capital in the nontradables sector always falls while that in the tradables sector invariably jumps up on impact following devaluation. Interestingly, real wage jumps up, stay unchanged or falls on impact following devaluation depending mainly on relative factor intensity of the two sectors and the share of imported machines in production of capital goods. The results of this heterogeneous agent model are strikingly similar, qualitatively and quantitatively, to those of the representative agent model analyzed in Won(2008), which may provide a rationale for using a rather simpler representative agent model.

수출주도 경제성장 혹은 수입주도 경제성장? -ASEAN 주요국의 경우-

원용걸 ( Yong Kul Won ) 한국동남아학회 2010 동남아시아연구 Vol.20 No.1

ASEAN내 한ㆍ중ㆍ일간 경합관계와 한국의 대(對)ASEAN 수출 결정요인 분석: 위안화 및 엔화의 영향을 중심으로

원용걸 ( Won Yong Kul ),이화연 ( Lee Hwa Yeon ) 한국동남아학회 2017 동남아시아연구 Vol.27 No.4

본 논문은 ASEAN내에서 한·중·일간 수출경쟁관계를 살펴보고, 일본 엔화 또는 중국 위안화 환율변화가 우리나라의 對ASEAN 수출에 미친 영향을 시계열 분석방법을 이용하여 고찰한다. 이를 위해 우선 한ㆍ중ㆍ일의 품목별 ASEAN 시장점유율 및 수출경합도지수를 도출하여 한ㆍ중ㆍ일의 ASEAN시장내 경합관계 및 변화추이를 살펴본다. 더 나아가 다양한 공적분 접근법을 사용하여 우리나라의 對ASEAN 주요국별 수출함수를 추정함으로써 일본 및 중국의 환율변화가 우리의 對ASEAN 수출에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 분석결과, 과거 가장 높았던 일본의 ASEAN 시장점유율이 중국에 의해 대체되었고, 한국의 시장점유율은 큰 변화가 없으며 그 과정에서 한ㆍ중ㆍ일간 수출경합관계는 더 치열해진 것으로 나타났다. 한편 일본 및 중국의 실질환율 변화가 우리나라의 對ASEAN 수출에 미치는 영향은 매우 제한적이며, ASEAN의 경제성장이 우리나라의 對ASEAN수출증가를 견인한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 우리 기업들이 ASEAN을 글로벌 가치사슬에 포함하여 직접투자 및 중간재 교역을 급속히 확대한 결과로 보인다. This paper analyses the market shares and the export similarity indexes (ESI) of Korea, Japan and China in ASEAN, and then identifies the determinants of Korea’s exports to ASEAN countries using single equation cointegration approaches, such as fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). Various regression results are as follows: As expected, Korea’s real exports tend to increase as importing country’s GDP grows. The competing third country’s currency depreciation affects Korea’s exports differently from country to country. Most notably, it doesn’t significantly affect Korean exports in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. These results suggest that bilateral or third country exchange rates are not that important or decisive factors to determine Korea’s exports to ASEAN countries in the long-run while economic growth in ASEAN countries matters most.

ASEAN 주요국의 수출, 직접투자유입 및 경제성장간 상호관계 연구: 시계열 및 패널자료 인과관계 분석

원용걸 ( Yong Kul Won ) 한국동남아학회 2008 동남아시아연구 Vol.18 No.2