Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

대두분과 자당-지방산 에스테르 첨가가 제빵특성에 미치는 영향

장학길 한국콩연구회 2002 韓國콩硏究會誌 Vol.19 No.2

Rheological and baking properties of flour blends containing various levels of soy flour(5~35%) and sucrose-fatty acid eater(SE, 0.5~0.1%) with hard wheat flour were investigated. As the soy flour levels was increased, Pelshenke value increased, while sedimentation value decreased. The mixing time and peak height of mixing of mixogram in most cases decreased with and an increase in wheat flour dilution. However, addition of 0.5% SE to the soy flour blends improved the mixograph characteristics. Amylogram data showed an increase in the gelatinization temperature as the percentage of soy flour in the blend was increased. In all cases, the fermentation loss increased and baking loss decreased as the soy flour level was increased. With the conventional breadmaking procedure, loaf volume decreased as the percentage of soy flour in the blends increased. Accrptable bread could be produced up to the 15% level of incorporation of soy flour. Addition of 0.5% SE to the soy floer blends improved the bread baking characteristics of the white pan bread.

Volvariella volvacea의 營養菌絲 및 擔子器 細胞의 核分裂에 關한 硏究

張鶴吉,李炯煥 건국대학교 1981 論文集 Vol.13 No.1

The studies were carried out to examine the nuclear behaviour and morphological variation in the vegetative mycelia and basidia at various stages on the life cycle of Volvariella volvacea(Bull ex Fr.) Sing. Nuclear division of vegetative mycelia: 1.Somatic mycelia of vegetative cells were multinucleate. Sizes and shapes of the nuclei diff tired from those of various stages and nuclear division. 2.The number of nuclei per cell ranged from one to more than thirty. 3.In vegetative mycelia, nuclear behaviour clearly demonstrated that somatic nuclei usually divide mitotically and asynchronously. Interphase, prophase, metaphase, anaphase and telophase nuclei are seen. 4.No spindle has been resolved, and the mechanism of anaphase separation is still unknown. Clamp connections are definitely absent. Nuclear division of basidia: 1.Hyphae and cells Occurring in the hymenium can be classified morphologecally basidia, bas-idioles(paraphysis), and cystidia. 2.All nuclei present in the fruiting body tissues are of uniform shape and size. The haploid chromosome number is shown to be nine. 3.Meiosis occurs regularly after nuclear fusion and various stases of meiosis can be clearly distinguished. From uninucleate basidiospores are formed.

국내산 망고의 소비의향 요인분석

정학균 ( Hak Kyun Jeong ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),이문수 ( Mun Su Lee ) 한국축산경영학회 2014 농업경영정책연구 Vol.41 No.2

The purpose of this paper is to present the policy implications in order to secure stable supply for new cash crops as an option responding to Climate Change. For this study we estimated what variables affect customer`s choice for the domestic mango consumption. We analyzed the factors of consumption intention for domestic mango by using the Ordered Probit Model with the results from survey on consumer`s purchase attitude and intention. The result shows some variables such as income, recognition of temperature increase, recognition of safety and contentment of quality to price are significant. Therefore it is required to develop a new variety of crops for climatic adaptation, a new cultivation technology, a strategy for marketing to higher-income consumers and considerations on safety issue in order to increase its consumption.

토목공학과 교육과정 개발연구

成基泰,金知學,李興吉,辛逸善,金芳植,閔彰東 忠州大學校 1996 한국교통대학교 논문집 Vol.31 No.2

For resonable curriculum modification and development corresponding with training to competent high-level, engineering as educational object of industrial university this research was carried out as following process ; 1. Collection and analysis of present curriculum in civil engineering department of domestic industrial university including the curriculum of foreign industrial university. 2. Organization of advisory committee for insustry school cooperation and visiting insustry and interview. 3. Organization of all Korea Civil Engineering Department chief committe. 4. Result of research through the questionnaire for all Korea representative industry and academic could be summarized as follows : 1) Wide contact between college education and industry field should be strengthened, and field experiment education was strengthened to consider of ability, and construction management was edited compulsory major. 2) For the adapting trend of variety and subdivision of construction skill EDPS education was edited compulsory 3) The curriculum was endeavoured to fundamental science. 4) The curriculum enlarged the range of the optional subject which is able to manage the flexible curriculum for characterization of each local industrial university and endeavoured consideration of field adapting ability by classifing the civil design into Construction design and integration, Hydraulic design and integration, Earth design and integration. 5) The curriculum of academic theories and experiments were unificated into single subject for the purpose of flexible management 6) The curriculum was edited in the ration which is 20 to 80 between liberal and majoring arts in presentation on the basis of all accounts of opinion from the academic and field worker, and emphasized the importance of language education editing industrial English conversation because of demand of much ability along with foreign advance of construction technique. 7) The curriculum was emphasized in the necessity of the field experimental trained based on the information by all opinion. By operationg this curriculum, it is expected that the relationship between industry and academic will be efficiently considered.

Impacts of Climate Change on Korean Agriculture and Its Counterstrategies

Chang-Gil Kim,Sang-Min Lee,Hak-Kyun Jeong,Jeong-Kyung Jang,Yoon-Hyung Kim,Chung-Kuen Lee 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Economic Effects of Measures to Adapt to Climate Change in Agriculture

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Park Ji-yun,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2016 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

대두 및 대두분 저장중 품질특성의 변화

장학길 한국콩연구회 1988 韓國콩硏究會誌 Vol.5 No.1

大豆 및 大豆粉의 저장중 수분흡수력은 수분함량이 증가됨으로써 감소되었다. 저장중 pH의 변화는 65% RH에서는 大豆粉의 경우 PH 6이상 유지되었으나 85% RH에서는 pH 5.2까지 급격히 저하되었다. 大豆 저장중 전질소 및 수용성 질소는 저장기간에 따라 계속 감소되었으며, 大豆粉을 85% RH애서 無包裝 상태로 저장하였을 때 수용성 질소는 70%이상 감소되었다. 저장중 HDPE 또는 OPP/AL/PE film을 사용함으로써 수분 및 pH의 변화가 감소되었으며, 전질소와 수용성 질소의 변화도 감소되었다. 저장중 大豆澱粉의 Amylograph점도와 호화온도는 저장습도 및 포장재료에 따라 큰 차이가 있었다. 저장중 大豆 및 大豆粉 추출물의 calcium sulfate에 의한 응고력은 저장형태(大豆 또는 大豆粉), 저장기간, 습도 및 포장재료에 따라 큰 차이가 있었으며, 특히 大豆粉은 無包裝 상태에서 90일 저장시 응고가 되지 않았다. 저장기간이 경과함으로써 酸값과 過酸化物값이 증가되었는데, 이와 갈은 경항은 大豆보다 大豆粉 에서, 그리고 저장습도가 높을수록 현저하게 나타났다. 또한 포장재료는 OPP/AL/PE film 을 사용함으로써 大豆 및 大豆粉의 酸값과 過酸化物값의 증가를 억재시킬 수 있었을뿐 아니라, 지방산의 변화도 감소되었다. 지방산조성은 저장기간에 따라 18' 2酸과 18 : 3酸은 감소되었으나 飽和脂肪酸은 상대적으로 증가되었다. Changes of proteins of whole soybean and soy flour stored under different conditions of humidity(RH 65% and 85%) and packing material(HDPE and OPP/ AL/PE film) for 90 days and their influence on formation of soybean curd were investigated. The water holding capacity, total nitrogen, soluble nitrogen, pH and Amylograph viscosity of whole soybean and soy flour were rapidly decreased during storage at high relative humidity. Furthermore, such qulity changes were accompanied by considerable differences in final quality of soybean curds; lower volumes of soybean curds. Under the conditions of HDPE and OPP/AL/PE film packing, smaller changes were observed in protein quality than those without packing. It was found that acid value and peroxide value of total lipids extracted from whole soybean and soy flour increased in proportion with the storage period. The change wag more pronounced for soy flour stored at 85% RH. The increase of acid value and peroxide value was retarded by using the OPP/AL/PE film as packing material and the change of fatty acid was also reduced for whole soybean and soy flour. As for the change of fatty acid composition, polyunsaturated fatty acids such as linoleic and linolenic acid decreased while saturated fatty acid content increased in proportion with the storage period.

연구보문 : 생태환경; 기후변화가 벼 병해충 피해면적 발생에 미치는 영향분석

정학균 ( Hak Kyun Jeong ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),문동현 ( Dong Hyun Moon ) 한국환경농학회 2014 한국환경농학회지 Vol.33 No.1

BACKGROUND: It is known that impacts of climate change on damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases are increasing. The negative effects of climate change on production will threaten our food security. It is needed that on the basis of analysis of the impacts, proper strategies in response to climate change are developed. METHODS AND RESULTS: The objective of this paper is to estimate impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases, using the panal model which analyzes both cross-section data and time series data. The result of an analysis on impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by pest insect and disease showed that the damage occurrence by Rice leaf roller and Rice water weevil increased if temperature increased, and damage occurrence by Stripe, Sheath blight, and Leaf Blast increased if precipitation(or amount of sunshine) increased(or decreased). CONCLUSION: Adaptation strategies, supplying weather forecasting information by region, developing systematical strategies for prevention of damage occurrence by pest insect and disease, analyzing the factors of damage occurrence by unexpected pest insect and disease, enforcing international cooperation for prevention of damage occurrence are needed to minimize the impacts of damage occurrence on rice production.

미곡 생산의 기상영향 분석

김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),정학균 ( Hak Kyun Jeong ) 한국축산경영학회 2010 농업경영정책연구 Vol.37 No.4

The yield of rice production is affected not only by weather factors but also by technological factors such as breeding, dissemination, and cultivation and policy support as well. The objective of this paper is to measure impacts of weather factors on rice production using logistic functions. The rice yield in Korea has shown a stagnating or decreasing trend since the 2000s. As the factors contributing to such a change in the rice yield, high-quality variety development policy, increase of environment-friendly cultivation, and climate change including temperature rise have been mentioned. The result of an analysis on the factors that have contributed to the stagnation of rice yield in 2002-2003 and 2006-2007 showed that the ``weather`` factor had a far more impact on the yield than the ``technology`` factor. In 2002~2003, weather had a contributing factor of 72.0% whereas technology had a contributing factor of 28.0%. In 2006~2007, weather had a contributing factor of 61.2 % whereas technology had a contributing factor of 38.8%. Among the factors contributing to the rice yield change, the contribution of weather factors appear to have gradually increased such as 16.9% in 1980s, 25.1% in 1990s, and 28.3% in 2000s though its contribution ratio was not very high in the years when meteorological disasters occur.