논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

Three-dimensional analysis of soft and hard tissue changes after mandibular setback surgery in skeletal Class III patients

Park, Jae-Woo,Kim, Nam-Kug,Kim, Myung-Jin,Chang, Young-Il The Korean Association Of Orthodontists 2005 대한치과교정학회지 Vol.35 No.4

하악 수술로 치료한 골격성 3급 부정교합 환자의 연조직 변화를 3차원적으로 분석하였다. 수술전과 수술후에 CT를 촬영하고, 연조직과 경조직을 각각의 임계값에 따라 segmentation였다. FH.평면, 정중시상면, PNS를 포함하는 전두면을 기준으로 공통 좌표계를 구성하고, 이 좌표계를 기준으로 술전, 술후 영상을 위치시켰다. 술후의 변화를 측정하기 위해 각각의 모형에 대해 전두면에 평행한 grid를 형성하였다. Grid내의 교점에서 골조직과 연조직 모형에 투사하여 만나는 점의 좌표값을 구하고, 이를 바탕으로 술후의 변화를 측정하였다. 하악골 후퇴술시 안모의 변화는 하악골 부분에서만 발생한 것이 아니라, 구각부에서도 관찰되었다. 하악골 부위의 연조직 변화는 대응되는 골조직 이동량에 따른 상대적인 값으로 계산하였다. 정중시상면에서의 변화율은 $77\~102\%$로 나타났다. (p<0.05). 정중시상면 이외의 부분의 변화양상도 이와 유사하였다. 구각부에서의 변화는 하악골의 이동을 대표할 수 있는 점의 이동량에 대한 상대적인 값으로 계산하였다. 정중시상면에서의 변화는 B점을 기준으로 $14\~29\%$이고, Pog점을 기준으로 $17\~37\%$, grid상 83번째 점을 기준으로 $11\~22\%$로 관찰되었다.(p<0.05) The three-dimensional (3D) changes of bone, soft tissue and the ratio of soft tissue to bony movement was investigated in 8 skeletal Class III patients treated by mandibular setback surgery. CT scans of each patient at pre- and post-operative states were taken. Each scan was segmented by a threshold value and registered to a universal three-dimensional coordinate system, consisting of an FH plane, a mid-sagittal plane, and a coronal plane defined by PNS. In the study, the grid parallel to the coronal plane was proposed for the comparison of the changes. The bone or soft tissue was intersected by the projected line from each point on the gird. The coordinate values of intersected point were measured and compared between the pre- and post-operative models. The facial surface changes after setback surgery occurred not only in the mandible, but also in the mouth corner region. The soft tissue changes of the mandibular area were measured relatively by the proportional ratios to the bone changes. The ratios at the mid-sagittal plane were $77\~102\%(p<0.05)$. The ratios at all other sagittal planes had similar patterns to the mid-sagittal plane, but with decreased values. And, the changes in the maxillary region were calculated as a ratio, relative to the movement of a point representing a mandibular movement. When B point was used as a representative point, the ratios were $14\~29\%$, and when Pog was used, the ratios were $17\~37\%(9<0.05)$. In case of the 83rd point of the grid, the ratios were $11\~22\%(p<0.05)$.

신도시 개발에 따른 첨두유출량과 토양유실량 변화에 관한 연구 -목포시 남악 신도시 개발지를 대상으로-

우창호 ( Chang Ho Woo ),조남열 ( Nam Yui Cho ) 한국환경영향평가학회 2002 환경영향평가 Vol.11 No.4

The purpose of this study is to explore the hydrological impacts and soil loss variation due to the land use change of Namak New Town development area. The analysis of hydrological effects and soil loss variation has been carried out using GIS in this study. In order to estimate the peak runoff volumn, the Rational Method which is the most popular technique to predict runoff amounts is used. To estimate the soil loss in the study area, Universal Soil Loss Equation(USLE), which is one of the most comprehensive and useful technique to predict soil ersion is adopted. The result of this study has shown that the peak runoff volume and the total soil loss increse according to the land use change. The peak runoff volume and the total soil loss have been incresed about 2 time and about 48 times more than that of pre development. The increasing of the peak runoff volume can be effective erosion, flooding and so on. A careful city planning is the first essential step to minimize the environmental impacts and to construct the ecological city.

토끼에서 신델라 겔 ( 송아지의 제단백혈액추출물 황산 미크로노아이신 = 20 1 혼합물 ) 의 피부자극성시험

남석우(Suk Woo Nam),이영진(Young Jin Lee),고영권(Young Kwon Ko),장만식(Man Sik Chang),최완수(Wahn Soo Choi),김규봉(Kyu Bong Kim),우태욱(Tae Wook Woo),한정환(Jeung Whan Han),홍성렬(Sung Youl Hong),이향우(Hyang Woo Lee) 한국응용약물학회 1996 Biomolecules & Therapeutics(구 응용약물학회지) Vol.4 No.4

This study was conducted to investigate the skin irritation toxicity of Syndella gel, a combination topical drug containing a deproteinised dialysate of calfs blood and micronomicin sulfate in the ratio of 20 to 1, in New Zealand White rabbits. In the primary skin irritation test with male New Zealand White rabbits, there was no treatment-related effect on clinical sign, and body weight was not significantly changed. The Primary Irritation Index (PII) was 0.33, indicating that Syndella gel was a mildly irritating formulation.

기후변화 및 녹색성장의 효율적 대응체계 구축방안

최화식(Choi Hwa Sick),남창우(Nam Chang Woo) 한국도시행정학회 2012 도시 행정 학보 Vol.25 No.3

This study analyzed the domestic and international environment of the global climate change and green growth, then presented corresponding efficient response system after identifying the problems. Today, all countries try to preserve the natural environment and to promote sustainable development pursuing optimum growth withen that framework as a common challenge faced. As a viable alternative, promoting green growth has been proposed for the realization of sustainable development. Green growth that does not involve the destruction of nature in principle, but even if inevitable, it should be withen minimized range. Also, reorganization of the industrial structure should be made for leading energy savings and reduction of pollutant emissions and atmosphere recognizing the importance of conserving the environment all over the life of the people needs to be created. Specifically, this study suggests the use of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Deficit, supporting shift from environmental challenge to opportunities, strengthening institutional governance, strengthening virtuous cyclical structure of economic growth and environmental conservation, and strengthening responsive capacity of climate change of local government for the response system of green growth and climate change.

전자동 자반건조기 제작에 이용할 Water Jet의 유동해석 모델

김일수,박창언,정영재,손준식,남기우 한국공작기계학회 1998 한국생산제조학회지 Vol.7 No.5

This paper concentrates on the development of a computational design program to determine nozzle size in water jet, combing the numerical optimization technique with the flow analysis code. To achieve the above objective, a two-dimensional model was developed for investigating the fluid flow in water jet and calculating the velocity and pressure distributions. The mathematical formulation as a standard R-ε model was solved employing a general thermofluid-mechanics computer program. PHOENICS code, which is based on the Semi-Implicit Method Pressure Linked Equations (SIMPLE) algorithm. The developed code was applied to water jet design to determine the nozzle size, and investigated the effect of the change of nozzle location. Calculated results showed that the flow pattern is not changed as the change of nozzle location.

Endoscopy and Imaging Modalities/Basic Science of Gastrointestinal Disorders/Miscellaneous : Changing Pattern Of Digestive And Liver Disease In Korea, 1990-2006 Year; A Single Center Study

( Jung Hyun Kwon ),( Sang Woo Kim ),( In Sik Chung ),( Myung Gyu Choi ),( Kwan Woo Nam ),( Jung Pil Suh ),( Jae Hyuck Chang ),( Won Haing Hur ),( Yu Kyung Cho ),( Jae Myung Park ),( In Seok Lee ) 대한소화기학회 2007 SIDDS Vol.9 No.-

Background/Aims: Westernization in many Asian countries have changed lifestyles and diets, so once rare diseases have now become prevalent. The aim of this study is to investigate the changing pattern of digestive and liver disease in Korea, from 1990 to 2006. Methods: We extracted data specific gastrointestina (GI) disease based on the International Classification of Diseases code from the in-patients records at the Kangnam St. Mary`s Hospital in 1990, 1996 and 2006. This hospital is a tertiary-care hospital in Seoul, Korea, which has a capacity of 800 beds. Results: The admission rate for GI disease increased between 1990 and 2006. Overall in-patients were 1,623 persons in 1990, 2,368 persons in 1996 and 4,166 persons in 2006. The mean age of in-patients increased as time went by. A stomach cancer was the most common diagnosis during all periods, but its prevalence has decreased. Colon cancer ranked the 7th in 1990, but markedly increased and now ranks the second. The third was a hepatocellular carcinoma. The bile duct and gallbladder cancer, pancreas and esophageal cancer ranking followed with little interval change. In cases of cancer patients, a regular admission dramatically increased for chemotherapy. The number of patients admitted with pre-malignant neoplasm of stomach and colon increased remarkably with the development of endoscopy. The liver transplant, inflammatory bowel discase, and reflux esophagitis emerged form mid-1990s with greater frequencies, yet much below the levels found in the West. The admission rate for peptic ulcer, especially ulcer bleeding remained relatively stable, despite a decreased rate for ulcer perforation. Liver cirrhosis, hepatitis, cholelithiasis with cholecystitis-cholangitis, appendicitis, hemorrhoid and gastritis all decreased. Conclusions: The stomach cancer is the leading cause of admission, despite a recent decline. Colon cancer showed a marked rise. The liver transplant, inflammatory bowel disease and reflux esophagitis were new diagnosis with an increased tendency.

한국흑염소에서의 실험적 신증의 임상병리학적 연구

최희인,성재기,남치주,이창우,이경갑,Choi Hee-In,Sung Jai-Ki,Nam Tchi-Chou,Lee Chang-Woo,Lee Kyoung-Kap 한국임상수의학회 1989 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.6 No.2

In order to study the effects of administration of neomycin on the kidney of Korean black goats, 4.5(group A), 9(group B) or 14(group C) mg/kg, body weight of neomycin was injected intramuscularly turice a day for 84 days. On day 31, unilateral nephreotomy was performed in one animal of each group. The results were as follows: Serum neomycin concentrations were 8.7, 13.8, and 20.2 ${\mu}$g/ml 12 hours after injection. Serum BUN and creatinine concentration in nephreotomized goats, regardless of dosage, rapidly increased and came to peak on 3 days after, and then began to decrease to normal range, gradually, In non-nephrectomized goats, regardless of dosage, there was no notable change. In nephreotomized goats, PSP Tl/2 was delayed to the utmost 1 day after nephrectomy, regard-less of dosage, and then began to decrease to normal range, gradually in non-nephrectomized goats, there was not notable change in PSP T$\frac{1}{2}$. The intact kidney was markedly enlarged compared with the kidney of non-nephrectomized goats, but there was no microscopic change. It is concluded that administration of neomycin up to 14mg/kg body weight twice a day for 84 days was not nephrotoxic to the Korean black goats.

Cooccurrence와 신경망을 이용한 텍스트 영역 추출

남창우,우동민 明知大學校 産業技術硏究所 2000 産業技術硏究所論文集 Vol.19 No.-

Efficient content-based retrieval of image is an important and emerging application due to large database. Text either embedded in image is very useful for describing the contents of the image, as it is applied in digital libraries, multimedia systems, geographical information systems. For the first step to extract text, We propose an approach to segment text area using three GLCM(Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix) parameters and BP(Back-propagation) algorithm. The set of features corresponds to the text area is selected by using GLCM parameters with 16*16 masks and is trained by BP with target image which is binarized only text 1 and background 0. The result from our experiment with several sample image in which text is embedded demonstrates that this algorithm can be effective in extracting text area.

시간-주파수 해석법에 의한 CFRP의 파괴 거동

남기우,안석환,이상기,김현수,문창권 한국비파괴검사학회 2001 한국비파괴검사학회지 Vol.21 No.1

신호처리법으로 현재 많이 사용되고 있는 푸리에 변환은 신호의 주파수 성분이 사간에 따라 어떻게 변화하는지를 표현하지 못한다. 따라서 최근 이와 같은 푸리에 변환의 단점을 보완하여, 신호의 시간과 주파수에 대한 정보를 동시에 표현할 수 있는 시간-주파수 해석법들이 개발되었다. 본 연구에서는 음향방출을 이용하여 복합재료의 주요 발생원으로 알려져 있는 기지균열, 섬유분리, 섬유파괴 및 층간분리 등과 같은 파괴기구를 해석하였다. 각각의 파괴특성이 나타나도록 시험편을 제작하여 인장시험 시 검출된 음향방출신호의 시간-주파수 해석을 통해 전체 파괴기구의 특징을 분석하였다. Fourier transform has been one of the most common tools to study the frequency characteristics of signals. With the Fourier transform alone, however, it is difficult to tell whether signal's frequency contents evolve in time or not. Except for a few special cases, the frequency contents of most signals encountered in the real world change with time. Time-frequency analysis methods are developed recently to overcome the drawbacks of Fourier transform, which can represent the information of signals in time and frequency at the same time. In this study, damage process of cross-ply carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) under monotonic tensile loading was characterized by acoustic emission. Different kinds of CFRP specimens were used to determine the characteristics of AE signals. Time-frequency analysis methods were employed for the analysis of fracture mechanisms in CFRP such as matrix cracking, debonding, fiber fracture and delamination.