경제성장과 계획편성에 관한 고찰 : Recursive Programming 모형을 중심으로 With Respect to Korean Planning

이형순 성균관대학교 사회과학연구소 1968 社會科學 Vol.7 No.1

This study is initially motivated for a desire to formulate a dynamic planning model of economic development in developing countries. Therefore, we are primarily concerned with the nature of dynamic programming problems in which economic planning can be implemented to be realistically meaningful. In recent year, there has been increasing concern among economists to formulate linear programming versions of Leontief dynamic input-output system, especially designed for development planning in developing countries. However, these programming formulations so far seem to be lack of incorporating dynamic nature of realistically meaningful planning. The approach of recursive programming is an account of such a quest. First of all, the theoretical framework of recursive programming is essentially based on the principle of sequential choice in which priorities of investment projects can be incorporated. It was originally suggested by Mr. Marshall K. Wood to formulate dynamic programs of U.S. Air Force during the Second World War, and recently formalized by Prof. R.H. Day (Recursive Programming and Production Response, North Holland, 1963). Speaking of economic development proper, the recursive programming contains the logics to implement the vareity of the unbalanced growth hypothesis formulated by Prof. A. O. Hirschman, because in the theoretical formework of the recursive programming, interdependent economic activities can be taken into account sequentially or recursively rather than simultaneously. As a matter fact, balanced growth hypotheses have been widely known and emphasized by Western economists in order to take off so-called underdevelopment trap of $quot;vicious circle of poverty$quot; inherent in developing economies, and the vareity of its formulation has been multi-dimensional. Yet, it has a common footing to take into account of interdependent economic activities simultaneously. As is well known, R. Nurlcse's version of the balanced growth hypothesis is clearly based on the workability of demand-leading market mechanism. He said that $quot;inducement to invest depends primarily on the size of market,$quot; which he called$quot; a modern variant of Adam Smith's famous thesis that the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market.$quot; Nevertheless, it has become increasingly clear that various sectors of production in an economy do not expand equiproportionally in a process of economic growth(L. Johansen, A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth, North-Holland, 1964). We cannot draw the balanced growth conclusion that simultaneous attack in each sector of an economy is essential as Prof. Hirschman strongly emphasized. Instead, a sequential or chain of disequilibrium solution is indeed required to make an economy growing. In recursive programming formulations, we can explicitly take into account of the following aspects: a sequence of the subsequent development and utilization of growth potentials of an economy can be implemented within a planning horizon of economic planning. In general, linear programming versions of intertemporal planning per se are unable to implement a dynamic nature of planning over time in which several time periods are involved within a planning horizon. It is because of the fact that a single optimizing rule is made for once-for-all decision on planning programs throughout a planning horiizon. For instance, in ordinary linear programming problems, objective functional is to be maximized at the end of a planning horzon. Accordingly, original plans cannot be reformulated each year within the theoretical framework of a planning model. In other words, there is no regenerative nature of rational planning within a planning horizon. Recursive programming has such a dynamic property in which a regenerative nature of rational planning can be incorporated within a planning horizon. In a dynamic world of economic development, it is crystal clear that development plans should have a regenerative nature of rational planning. In order to understand the nature of such planning, let us consider a five-year economic plan. At the initial period when a plan is made, a set of coordinated investment projects over the entire period is specified before carry out the development plan. However, during the course of planning, an ex-ante or intended plan cannot be realized as is originally planned. Stochastic elements inherent in economic activities might affect the original plan to be different as anticipated. Misspecification of planning models might also produce errors of forecastings. Decision making between long-range targets of economic growth and short-range economic policies of economic stability seems to be difficult one in view of the fact that both goals of economic policies are essentially conflicting each other. Accordingly, to make any development plan to be realistic as well as empirically meaningful, target functions or objective functionals should be continually reformuated withi n a planning horizon by economic planners in the light of changing economic conditions. Even though a set of development plans does include consideration of a sequence of actions, it should be modified as each planning period recedes into the past, because in a rapidly changing society like developing countries, changes in environmental factors such as new production processes and new market potentials are easily expected to be changed. Therefore, decision making process should be of a regenerative nature. Decision makers plan a set of actions or a sequence of actions, the set of actions for the first period are actuated, but the realization of these actions turns out to be different than anticipated and the environment within which the sequence as a whole was planned had changed, so that now a whole new sequence of actions are planned in response to these changes. Again, the first set of actions is implemented and so the process goes. Therefore, the logics of the recursive programming explicitly contains the following two common sense aspects of planning: first, optimizing activity is constrained by behavioral impediments; second, objective functionals are continually reformulated. According to the empirical findings of H.B. Chenery and T. Watanahe (Econometrica, Oct., 1958), Leontief technology matrix of the input-output analysis can be arranged in a triangular form. This implies that the mode of production and interrelations among production sectors of an economy have its peculiar structural property. In other words, intersectoral flow of production sectors of an economy can be characterized as a recursive relation, instead of a simultaneous one, especially from the view point of economic planning. Prof. W. W. Leontief said; $quot;The triangularization of a real input-output table, that is, the discovery of its peculiar structural properties-is a challenging task. It is complicated by the fact that one must take into account not only the distinction between zero and non-zero entries but also the often more important difference between their actual numerical magnitudes. The degree to which triangularization reveals significant structural details depends also on the fitness of the .sectoral breakdown. A single entry in a highly aggregated table may conceal the solid block of a triangular matrix or a narrow strip of finer intersectoral relations. Lack of sufficiently detailed information about the internal structure of groups and blocks of industries may impose severe limitations one attempts to explain the behavior of the economic system as a whole (Scientific American, September, 1963, p. 154). The theoretical property of the recursive programming can be also characterized as a dynamic multiple phase model. Leontief's dynamic input-output model, Georgescu-Roegen's model of relaxation phenomenon, and Hick's trade cycle theory have also the property of dynamic multiple phase. However, switching in each phase is inherent by itself within the theoretical framework of the recursive programming whereas it is governed by exogenous constraints in their models. In fact, switching inherent in each phase has an important implication to formulate economic planning in developing countries, because of the fact that optimizing procedures can be made at each period within a planning horizon. In other words, economic planners can evaluate original planning problems and also reformulate objective functionals in the light of changing economic conditions. Such flexibility of planning is indeed an important factor to make any development plan to be realistic as well as empirically meaningful in view of the fact that ex-ante or intended plans cannot be always realized and thus plans should be modified. In this sense, application of ordinary linear programming formulations is insufficient to implement such dynamic' aspects of economic planning, since a single optimizing rule is made throughout a planning horizon. The recursive programming can be also characterized as an historical dynamic system. In an historical dynamic system, we can implement the path of the subsequent development of an economy through investment planning. To put into another words, historical time or calendar time explicitly enters into theoretical formulations of recursive programming in which technological progress can be implemented (P.A. Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis, p. 314) . For instance, in ordinary linear programming versions of Leontief dynamic input-output system, it is dynamic only in Hicksian sense of $quot;intertemporal efficiency.$quot; Therefore, such a system is not historical. In linear accelerator-type investment functions, there is no direct connection between effects of investment in current period to that of the subsequent periods. To this, Prof. Hirschman said; $quot;In underdeveloped countries, on the contrary these process are absolutely basic in determining the expansion path of the economy:… The complementarity effect of investments thus reinforces and supplements the slow growing ability to invest o underdeveloped countries. The investment of one period call forth complementarity effect of investments in the next period with a will and logic of their own; they block out a part of the road that lies ahead and virtually compel certain additional investment decisions... The complementarity effect of investment is therefore the essential mechanism by which now energies are channeled toward the development process and through which vicious circle that seems to confine it can be broken. To give maximum play to this effect must therefore be a primary objective of development policy (The Strategy of Economic Development, 1958, pp. 42-43). Of course, it should be noted that the hypothesis of Hirschman's unbalanced growth is only applicable to an economy where market mechanism is not diversified. Under this presumption, the concept of complementarity effect of investments can be tenable to the extent that investments depend primarily on the ability to invest rather than the ability to save. In this sense, Prof. Hirschman emphasizes a role of investment as a pace-setter besides the income-generator and the capacity-creator. A role of investment as a pace setter can link the direct effect between the current investment and the next period of investment effects, which basically determines the path of the subsequent development of an economy, and such a sequence can be characterized as a chain of disequilibrium solution. Recursive programming models can implement such a sequence in which target functions can be formulated within a planning horizon according to the principle of sequential choice of economic activities. Finally, the property of dynamic multiple phase systems have an important implication for economic development planning in developing countries. That is, a process of economic development can be understood to be essentially a process of discontinuous one as J.A. Schumpeter once emphasized. Such a discontinous process is, in fact, due to a $quot;structural break$quot; as S. Chakravarty pointedly emphasized(The Logics of Investment Planning, North-Holland, 1959). In a rapidly changing society, such a $quot;structural break$quot; is easily expected as a consequence of new economic activities and changing initial conditions of economic data. Indeed, such a $quot;structural break$quot; can be implemented within the theoretical framework of recursive programming problems.

전략적 구매관리를 위한 PSM(Purchasing & Supply Management) 프로세스 설계 및 SRM 실행 효과 분석 - SRM시스템 구축 사례 및 성과 중심 -

이형순,정길수,윤일지,김창은 한국경영공학회 2020 한국경영공학회지 Vol.25 No.3

purpose. This study is about PSM's process improvement and performance verification in the service and distribution sector. It is intended to present an improvement model for industries that PSM's process are not settled and overlooked. Methods. In this study, we analyzed PSM methodology, implemented improvements, and analyzed key performance monitoring data to identify the effects expected after the PSM improvement. The dilemma of decision-making for the new supplier evaluation and selection were tested for validity through z-test and Correlation analysis Results. This study shows, After PSM and SRM improvement, quantitative measurement data was obtained that decreased the shortage and order cycle time, increasing work efficiency. The selection and evaluation of supplier through fair procedures increased the satisfaction level of the supplier and increased the level of the supplier creditworthiness. Result of Analyzing the difference in competitiveness between the bidding price and quality of new and long-term supplier, there was no significant difference. Conclusion. The results illustrate that PSM's procedures can enhance the trust and induce the challenge between buyer-supplier in the service and distribution sector. The management of PSM's standard work procedures and improving the accuracy of information through the SRM system is a way of strategic purchasing.

명치유신과 경제발전

이형순 고려대학교 아세아문제연구소 1984 亞細亞硏究 Vol.27 No.2

Antitumor Effect of Low-Dose of Rapamycin in a Transgenic Mouse Model of Liver Cancer

이형순,김준예,노원상,김명수,김혜령,주동진 연세대학교의과대학 2022 Yonsei medical journal Vol.63 No.11

Purpose: We investigate whether low-dose rapamycin is effective in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) growth and treating HCC after tumor development in transgenic mice. Materials and Methods: We established transgenic mice with HCC induced by activated HrasG12V and p53 suppression. Trans genic mice were randomly assigned to five experimental groups: negative control, positive control, tacrolimus only, rapamycin only, and tacrolimus plus rapamycin. The mice were further divided into two groups according to time to commencement of im munosuppressant treatment: de novo treatment and post-tumor development. Results: In the de novo treatment group, marked suppression of tumor growth was observed in the rapamycin only group. In the post-tumor development group, the rapamycin only group displayed no significant suppression of tumor growth, compared to the positive control group. In T lymphocyte subset analysis, the numbers of CD4+effector T cells and CD4+ regulatory T cells were significantly lower in the positive control, tacrolimus only, and tacrolimus plus rapamycin groups than the negative control group. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed significantly higher expression of phosphorylated-mTOR, 4E-BP1, and S6K1 in the posi tive control group than in the rapamycin only group. Conclusion: Low-dose rapamycin might be effective to prevent HCC growth, but may be ineffective as a treatment option after HCC development.

경제 대국 미국과 일본의 경제 전쟁

이형순 사회발전연구소 1995 한국인 Vol.14 No.7

韓國의 財政安定計劃에 關한 理論的批判

李亨純 성균관대학교 1968 成均館大學校 論文集 Vol.13 No.1

사춘기 이후에 발생한 백반증 126예의 임상적 고찰

이형순,한승경,박윤기 연세대학교 원주의과대학 1990 원주의대논문집 Vol.3 No.1

경제위기시대의 경제문제들

이형순 한국시멘트협회 1983 시멘트 Vol.91 No.-

응급수술 후 조기 식이/경장영양 공급의 안전성

이형순,심홍진,이호선,이재길,김경식 한국정맥경장영양학회 2011 한국정맥경장영양학회 학술대회집 Vol.2011 No.-

배경 및 목적: 수술 후 조기 식이는 환자의 회복을 빠르게 하며, 감염의 합병증을 낮추는 효과가 있는 것으로 알려져 있어, 현재 발표되어 있는 영양지원 권고안에서는 위장관 수술 후 조기 식이는 권장하고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 연구 결과는 선택수술이나 하부위장관 수술에서 시행된 것으로 응급 위장관 수술 후 조기 식이 공급이나 경장 영양에 대한 결과는 많지 않다. 따라서 응급 위장관 수술 후 조기 식이 및 경장 영양의 안전성에 대해 알아 보고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 2008년 3월 부터 2010년 12월 까지 단일 외과의에 의해 응급 위장관 수술이 시행된 환자를 대상으로 후향적 분석을 시행하였다. 위장관 절제(+장문합 또는 장루형성)가 시행된 환자를 연구대상으로 하였다. 수술 후 72시간이내 식이여부에 따라 조기공급군(E군), 후기공급군(L군)으로 분류하였다. 결과: 전체 89명의 환자가 포함되었으며 남자가 49명이었고, 평균 연령은 61.5세 였다. 59명의 환자가 수술 후 중환자에서 치료 받았으며, 기계호흡은 31명에서 시행되었다. 수술 후 재원기간은 18.1일, 중환자실 재실 기간은 5.5일 이었다. 수술의 원인은 위장관 천공, 장폐색증, 복부 외상 순이었다. 가장 흔한 수술 부위는 소장이었고, 절제술 후 문합술이 시행된 경우가 가장 많았다. E군은 53명(60%) 였으며, 이중 32명은 수술 후 48시간 이내에 식이를 시작하였다. 수술 및 중환자실 치료와 관련되어 두 군간의 환자 구성은 차이가 없었다. 재원기간과 중환자실 기간이 L 군에서 유의하게 길었으나(p=0.002, 0.044), 기계호흡 기간은 차이가 없었다. 가장 흔한 수술 후 합병증은 상처부위(30건) 이었으며, 1명의 환자에서 문합부 누출로 재개복술을 시행받았다. 합병증의 발생률은 두 군간에 차이가 없었다. 대상환자 중 3명의 환자가 사망하였으며, 모두 L 군에 속하였다. 결론: 응급 위장관 수술 후에도 조기 식이 및 경장영양 공급은 특별한 문제 없이 시행할 수 있었다. 그러나 향후조기 경장공급의 안전성에 대한 전향적인 연구가 필요한 상태이다. 또한 경장영양은 혈역학적으로 안정된 경우에만 시행할 수 있으므로 중환자의 경우에는 환자 상태를 정확히 파악한 후 시행하여야 한다.

계량경제학적 모형에 의한 저축이론의 음미

李亨純 中央大學校 經濟學硏究會 1965 경제학논집 Vol.8 No.1