이사천수계 및 주암호와 상사호의 어류군집에 관한 연구

황영진,김종선,나명석,최한호,최충길 ( Yeong Jin Hwang,Jong Sun Kim,Myeong Suk Ra,Han Ho Choi,Chung Gil Choi ) 한국하천호수학회 1995 생태와 환경 Vol.28 No.4

The ichthyofauna was investigated at nine sites in the Isa Stream from August to November, 1989, and four stations in ther Chuam Lake and the Sangsa Lake from August to November, 1993. The collected fishes in the Isa Stream were classified to 20 species belong into 17 genera and 8 families, in which 7 species were classified as endemic species in Korea. In the summer and autumn, the collected fishes from the Chuam Lake and the Sangsa Lake were classified to 36 species belong to 25 genera and 10 families, in which 32 species and 27 species were collected in Chuam Lake and Sangsa Lake, respectively. Among these 11 species were classified as endemic species in Korea. Dominent species in these lakes were Opsarichthys uncirostris amurensis 24.3%, Acanthorhodeus gracilis 18.7%, Squalidus chancaensis tsuchigae 16.9%, Zacco platypus 14.0%, Pseudorasbora parva 7.6%, Hemiculter eigenmanni 4.2% and Carassius auratus 2.9% by individual numbers. Body weight were of several important species from the Chuam Lake and the Sangsa Lake Carassius auratus 17.2%, Squalidus chancaensis tsuchigae 16.1%, Opsarichthys uncirostris amurensis 16.0%, Acanthorhodeus gracilis 14.5%, Pseudobagrus fulvidraco 6.8%, Zacco platypus 5.8%.

Estimation the Natural Output Korea: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

황영진 한국개발연구원 2009 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.31 No.1

This paper attempts to estimate the natural rates of output and interest of Korea in a simple DSGE set-up with a few stylized New Keynesian features using Bayesian methods. The major findings of this paper are as follows. First, the estimates of output gaps are less volatile than the measures from conventional approaches, although they exhibit non-negligible variations depending on the model specification. Another key finding is that the hybrid type Phillips curve with a backward-looking component and/or habit formation in consumption may play an important role in characterizing the macroeconomic dynamics of Korea.

DSGE 모형을 이용한 추세와 경기순환변동분의 분해

황영진,Hwang, Youngjin 한국개발연구원 2012 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.34 No.4

This paper decomposes and estimates trend/cyclical components of some key macro variables-GDP, inflation, and interest rate, using a simple DSGE model along with flexible trend specification. The extracted cyclical components of output and interest rate are similar to HP-filtered counterparts, despite some differences in persistence and volatility, while inflation resembles that from BK filtering. This implies that the usual practice of applying a single filtering method to the data of interest may be problematic. When the baseline model is extended to incorporate consumption habit and price indexation, habit turns out to be important in explaining the persistence of business cycles. Comparison of several alternative models shows that the usual practice of estimation of DSGE model using filtered data leads to biased results. Finally, various sensitivity analyses illustrate that (1) allowing for correlation between structural cyclical shocks and trend shocks and (2) including irregular components (in inflation rate) may deliver interesting/important implication for gap estimates. 본 논문은 간단한 동태적 확률 일반균형(DSGE) 모형과 탄력적 추세를 고려한 비관측인자모형을 결합하여, DSGE 모형의 추정과 추세/순환변동분의 분해를 동시에 시도하였다. 이를 통해 추정된 GDP 순환변동분은 공식 경기순환 국면과 상당 정도 부합하는 등 전반적으로 경기순환을 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 변동성과 지속성의 측면에서 통상적 필터링 방법을 이용한 경우와는 적지 않은 차이가 있었으며, 특히 GDP의 추세분은 상당한 변동성을 보이며 경기순응적 모습을 보였다. 추정된 순환변동분의 성격을 변수별로 살펴보면, GDP와 이자율의 경우는 HP 필터의 결과와 유사한 반면, 인플레이션의 경우는 (불규칙 변동분을 추가로 제외한 경우) BK 필터를 이용한 결과와 상대적으로 더 유사한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 분석대상 변수들에 임의의 단일한 필터링 방법을 적용할 경우, 경기순환분의 성격이 잠재적으로 왜곡되어 추출될 우려가 있음을 보여준다. 습관 및 가격연동을 포함한 확장모형을 고려한 경우, 습관은 경기변동의 지속성을 설명함에 있어 중요한 요소인 것으로 평가된 반면, 가격연동은 그 중요성이 제한적인 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 모형의 개별 요소들에 대한 평가 결과는, 사전 필터링된 자료를 이용하여 추정한 경우와 적지 않은 차이를 보여, 자료의 필터링과 모형의 추정을 분리하여 고려하는 일반적인 DSGE 모형의 추정 및 분석은 잠재적으로 오류의 가능성이 있음을 시사한다. 마지막으로 결과에 대한 다양한 민감도 분석 결과, (i) 순환변동 충격과 추세 충격이 상관관계를 가지는 경우, 추세 충격의 성격에 따라 추정된 GDP갭의 성격이 상당 부분 달라지기도 했으며, (ii) 불규칙 변동분의 포함 여부가 추정된 인플레이션갭의 성격 및 필립스 곡선의 기울기 등에 중요한 함의를 지니는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 (iii) 경기변동분을 VAR로 모형화한 경우, DSGE 모형을 이용한 경우에 나타나는 경기변동의 비대칭성을 제대로 나타내지 못하는 것으로 나타났다.

Predicting Korean Recessions with Time-Varying Predictors

황영진 한국경제연구학회 2015 Korea and the World Economy Vol.16 No.3

This study examines the predictive ability of a wide set of variables to predict Korean recessions based on probit models. In doing so, we extend probit-based recession forecasting models in several important and novel ways. First, in addition to commonly used financial variables, we incorporate several macro leading variables as potential predictors of recessions. Second, our forecasts use the algorithm of dynamic model selection/averaging (DMS/DMA), which allows for specific predictors to switch over time in a data-based manner. Our main findings are as follows. First, in terms of both in-sample fits and out-of-sample forecasts, while financial indicators (such as interest rate spreads) are good predictors over short-horizons (i.e., one or three months ahead), some macro leading variables (such as commodity price index and job opening-to-application ratio) turn out to be useful over longer horizons. Second, forecasting using time-varying predictors (i.e., DMS/DMA models) performs well, beating individual best predictors for each forecast horizon. In addition, we show that forecasting using switching predictors outperforms the models that employ fixed predictors and the composite leading index, in most cases, especially in terms of the mean squared error (MSE). Third, we find strong evidence for predictor switching and illustrate how the performance of the key predictors has evolved over time.

Sources of Housing Price Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Sign-restricted VAR

황영진 한국경제연구학회 2012 Korea and the World Economy Vol.13 No.2

This article investigates the role of potential disturbances behind the housing market fluctuations in Korea using a VAR model with sign-restriction. Specifically, we identify four structural shocks, namely, i) monetary policy shock, ii) lending shock, iii) housing market shock, and iv) expectations shock, and estimate their effects on housing price and other macro variables. The overall results from impulse responses and forecast error variance decomposition indicate that development in housing sectors is closely interrelated to other macro variables/factors, including monetary policy. When we decompose the historical contribution of each shock for the actual time series movements in housing price, non-monetary policy shocks, such as lending shock and housing market shock, seem to be mainly accountable for since 2000. In this time period, loose monetary policy also partly contributed, whose role seems to be relatively minor however.

三島由紀夫の『金閣寺』

黃英珍 한일일어일문학회 1998 한일어문논집 Vol.2 No.-

『金閣寺』는 인식과 행위에 관한 한계를 논리적으로 전개시킨 관념소설로써 인간의 이상적가치인 미이념을 추구하여 금각방화로써 표출시킨 작품이다. 주인공 〈私〉는 언어적 장애를 지닌 말더듬이로 『金閣寺』에 대한 미적 인식을 어려서 아버지로 부터 받아들여 지상에서 가장 아름다운 것으로 생각하게 된다. 그러나 실제 눈으로 보게 된 금각은 心象에 그려진 것 만큼 아름답지가 않았다. 여기서 주인공 〈私〉는 美라는 것에 대한 실체에 대하여 思考하게 된다. 즉, 아름답다고 여기는 것은 자신의 주관이 美를 추상하기 때문이다. 그 주관작용을 금각이 만들어내게 한다. 하지만 美가 금각에 실재하는 것은 아니다. 美는 대상에 함유되어 있거나 대상에서 표출되어져 나오는 것이 아니며, 대상에서 유리되어, 외부에 존재하며, 대상과 관찰자를 조절하고 있는 우주본체의 질서라는 것을 자각하게 된다. 이때, 美는 대상을 여윈 無의 境地를 일컬음이 된다. 그렇다면, 금각이 아름답다고 하여 매일 구경오는 참관자는 금각에게 속고있는 것이다. 그 금각을 소각시켜 美가 금각에 실재하지 않음을 밝혀야하며, 거짓된 미로써 〈私〉로 하여금 아름다움에 현혹되게 하며, 승려로써 귀의하게 한 금각이 무력하다는 것을 증명시키기 위하여 금각소각 행위가 정당성을 가짐을 주장하게 된다. 즉, 소각을 통하여 금각이 無化되면 아무것도 없는 자리에서 금각이 그렇게 아름답게 보였던 것이 바로 無의 境地에서 조절된 것임을 볼수가 있게 된다. 그런데, 금각은 소각시켜 無化할 수 있지만 그 대상의 아름다움의 형상을 지니고 있는 인간의 속성이 윤회를 끊임없이 되풀이하여 無로 될 수 없음으로 금각을 소각시켜도 美 즉, 無의 境地를 만날 수 없음에 봉착하게 된다. 그렇다면, 금각소각을 통하여 美를 실현하고자 주도하게 준비해온 것이 모두 부질없는 일에 지나버리고 만다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 금각방화가 행위된 것은 금각소각을 통하여 美의 境地를 얻을 수 없다는 인간의 인식과 행위의 한계를 단적으로 결말짓기 위한 방화로 추론할 수가 있겠다.

Reconstruction of Pre-war U.S. Business Cycle Dates Using Markov Regime-Switching Model

황영진 한국외국어대학교 영미연구소 2009 영미연구 Vol.21 No.-

This article attempts to (re)assess the post-war stabilization hypothesis for U.S. economy. Unlike most works that look at the issue in terms of volatility and/or amplitude aspect of business cycles, I approach the stabilization issue from the duration perspective, in line with Diebold and Rudebusch (1992) and Watson (1994). One of the distinguishing features of the article is, in identifying the pre-war boom and recession periods, to employ the Markov regime-switching model and construct alternative pre-war business cycle reference dates. These newly constructed business cycle dates from the regime-switching model provide useful and significant implications for pre-war business cycle fluctuations. Finally, based on the newly created dates, I test the post-war stabilization hypothesis. The empirical results largely support the hypothesis.

족삼리(足三里) 천궁(川芎) 약침(藥鍼)이 Collagen-induced Arthritis에 미치는 영향

황영진,임윤경,이현,Hwang, Young-Jin,Yim, Yun-Kyoung,Lee, Hyun 대한침구의학회 2007 대한침구의학회지 Vol.24 No.4

Objective: The purpose of this study was to observe the effects of Cnidii Rhizoma herbal-acupuncture solution(CR-HAS) at Joksamni($ST_{36}$) on arthritis induced by Collagen II in mice. Methods : The author performed several experimental items. The severity of arthritis, changes of mouse weight, size of the spleen and the degree of stenosis, changes of cytokine level, IgG, IgM and anti-collagen II, changes of immunocyte count, histological changes of the CIA mouse joint were analyzed. Results: 1. In the CR-HA, the arthritis index, the incidence of arthritis, the degree of joint edema was significantly decreased. 2. In the CR-HA, weight, spleen size and stenosis rate was low and maintained as the normal group was. 3. In the CR-HA, cytokine level, IgG, IgM and anti-collagen II were significantly decreased. 4. In the CR-HA, on changes of immunocyte count were maintained to the levels of normal group. 5. In histological changes of the CIA mouse joint, the cartilage destruction and synovial cell proliferation were decreased. Conclusions : These results suggest that CR-HA at the $ST_{36}$ has an important role to control the immune reactions and suppress inflammatory response on the collagen induced rheumatoid arthritis. This study can be a significant supporting evidence that CR-HA will be chosen to be the principal therapy for clinical practice of the rheumatoid arthritis in the future.

The Evolution of Housing-Macro Nexus in Time-Frequency Space: The Case of Korea

황영진 한국부동산분석학회 2019 不動産學硏究 Vol.25 No.4

As well noted during the recent global financial crisis, the interdependence between housing markets and the macroeconomy has become increasingly important. Unfortunately, most studies on housing market fluctuations and macro-housing nexus are conducted in the time domain and often fail to incorporate critical time-varying features observed in data. In this paper, we use wavelet analysis to identify important changing time-frequency properties of housing price dynamics in Korea and their dynamic relationships with other variables. We find that: (i) both the volatility and the length of housing price cycles have recently decreased; (ii) however, housing price fluctuations are, by and large, loosely associated with housing fundamentals, and their coherencies are found only at low frequencies, with such patterns disappearing in recent times; and (iii) instead, several housing price booms are associated with the increase in liquidity measures at high frequencies, whose specific features are time-varying as well.

랜덤하중스펙트럼하에서 단일 모서리 균열을 가진 알루미늄 합금 2024-T3 판재의 균열진전에 관한 연구

황영진,강기경,이석순 한국항공우주학회 2001 한국항공우주학회 학술발표회 논문집 Vol.- No.-