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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : 홍근철 (검색결과 1 건)
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홍근철 University of Tsukuba 1988 해외박사
본 논문은 개도국들(한국, 필리핀, 남미국가들)의 국가채무가 경제 제반에 미치는 영향을 계량적으로 비교분석한 후, 우리나라 부채의 향후 전망을 거시 계량모델로 예측하고, 그 함의를 제언함 2. 국가채무 부담의 국제비교 (1) "성장-채무 모델"의 분석 외자도입에 따른 누적채무 및 이자부담을 고려한 확장된 해로드 도마의 경제성장 모델을 기본으로 성장의 제약조건 등을 살펴봄 (2) 채무누적 모델의 동학적 분석 성장-채무 모델의 장기적 균형(수렴 여부) 분석을 위해, 동학 모델에 의한 균형 수렴 조건을 알아보고, 관련 비교동학 분석을 행함 (3) 경제성장과 누적채무의 Trade-off 각종 거시 변수가 누적채무의 확대에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 관련 개도국들의 채무 부담을 국제비교함 (4) Macro-Absorption 접근방식에 의한 거시채무부담지수 국가채무담을 나타내는 각종 인덱스를 Macro-Absorption 접근방식에 의해 검토하고, 실제 국가들에게 적용해 봄 3. 채무 예측 모델 외자도입 및 채무관련 변수를 특화한 총 140여개의 방정식으로 구성된 중형 거시계량모델을 구축함(이중 실제 추정한 행태방정식은 67개). 이 모델을 기반으로 각종 시뮬레이션을 통해 향후 우리나라의 채무부담과 경제성장을 예측해 봄. 본 논문에서는 결론적으로 부족한 투자재원 조달을 위해 당분간 대외채무는 더욱 확대되겠지만(국가위기를 초래할 만큼은 아님), 차후적으로는 경상흑자 기조로 돌아섬으로서 중장기적으로 채무위험에서 벗어나는 것으로 결론지음. The main contribution of the paper is that by using the debt projection model we obtain an answer about whether the debt problem of Korea as the major debtor country is judged as one of insolvency or illiquidity. The other important thing is to present the econometric model which is designed to allow analysis for debt policy relating the various domestic policies. Unfortunately the most of the existing Korean econometric models have no interest in debt problem and ignore the debt sector. Then they are useless to study problems about debt or foreign borrowings. To design our model to allow analysis for debt and foreign capital inflows, we emphasized and classified debt and foreign sector in detail. As aboved - mentioned in introduction part, many other devices for analyses for debt problems were also taken into account in all aspects. Before we discuss main subject, we examined the severity of the present debt situation by comparing it with them of the other major countries in the framework of the modified growth-cum-debt model in Chapter 2. But the fundamental difference between Chapter 2 and 3 is an assumption about behavior for foreign capital inflows, F . Mainly because of the unavailability of adequate statistical data for international comparisions, F in Chapter 2 is assumed simply to be decided exogenously and by government undertaking development planning. Then ,we come to the following set conclusions from Chapter 2 : 1) Our present debt situation belongs to favorable one among the five major debtor countries. 2) Especially, when the level of severity of debt situation is judged by "macro absorption" index for the debt burden, Korea is the most favorable case. Main several suggestions obtained from the debt projections in Chapter 3 are summarized as : 3) In the case of Korea, the severity of the debt problem reduces substantially so that Korea may not be insolvent but illiquid. 4) But the above judgment is possible with the more than 3 % of world growth and without the sharp increase of oil price. Therefore, the strong estimated improvement in Korean external accounts in reponse to higher world growth rate raises the question of whether the projections may be too optimistic because they are based on past relationships that might not apply in the future. 5) Trade-off relationship between growth and indebtedness has remained fundamentally in Korean economic structure. But, we need not be disappointed that there is no way to solve this trade-off problem. Results from simulations in the case of cut down for debt is a good example. To fine other ways through the mixed policy remains task from now on. However, there are several unanswered questions remaining in this study. First, by the limitations of data, the model could not include all the important variables, and as well disaggregate each sector of the economy in more detail. Second, the possible errors in specification together with the data imperfection might have caused biases on the estimated coefficients. We hope that these problems will be treated at a later date with the efforts to improve the model.
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