지역경제통합과 원산지규정의 효력

조우길(Woo-Kil Cho),장흥훈(Heung-Hoon Jang) 한국무역학회 2002 무역학자 전국대회 발표논문집 Vol.2002 No.8

지역경제통합과 원산지 규정의 효력

조우길(Woo-kil Cho),장흥훈(Heung-hoon Chang) 한국국제상학회 2003 國際商學 Vol.18 No.4

In a regional trading blocs of Free-Trade Area(FTA), member countries remove tariffs, but each member determines its own tariff structure towards nonmembers. This create an incentive for nonmember countries to export their goods to high-tariff members via members with low tariffs. To prevent this problem of trade deflection, each member must apply Rules of Origin(ROO), which specify the conditions under which a good may move, duty-free, among member countries. ROO generates distortions in the world trading system via the restrictive impact, but the work of designing global ROO within the framework of WTO is still in its introductive phase. This study explores the possibility of making them to promote the desirable goals of the international community at large. This study suggests employing asymmetrical ROO and cumulation of origin to promote valuable aims for the international community. Asymmetrical ROO may alleviate the problem of asymmetric factor endowments pools, and cumulation of origin could stimulate co-operation and enhance peace and stability in embattled regions as Korean Peninsular.

PC 를 이용한 경제교육

조우길,모수원 ( Woo Kil Cho,Su Won Mo ) 한국사회과교육학회 1992 시민교육연구 Vol.16 No.1

환율의 통화론적 모형에 의한 장단기예측

조우길(Woo Kil Cho),모수원(Soo Won Mo) 한국무역학회 1996 貿易學會誌 Vol.21 No.1

換率의 變移性이 貿易에 미치는 影響

조우길(Cho Woo-Kil) 한국항만경제학회 1998 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.14 No.-

This paper examines the relationships between nominal exchange rate volatility and trade balances as well as the causal relationships between trade balance and exchange rates in Korea. We investigates whether the ARCH conditional variance(exchange rate volatility) has a statistically significant impact on the trade balance. This study also provides the empirical overviews of the trade account and Korean won-dollar exchange rate using integer and fractional cointegration approach. This paper shows that all the fractional estimates of d not only lie between 0 and 1, but are greater than 0, suggesting a mean-reverting bahaviors.

乾貨物運賃은 豫測可能한가?

모수원(Mo Su-Won),조우길(Cho Woo-Kil),장흥훈(Jang Hung-Hwun) 한국항만경제학회 1996 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.12 No.-

The forecasting performances of bulk freight based on the structural models are compared to those based on a random walk model. The out-of-sample rolling regression techniques are used in the forecasting, and Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology is used to check the stationarity of the model. The results show that while the random walk model outperforms the monetary models in the short-run forecasting, the structural models outperform the random walk in the longer horizons. As the degree of uncertainty in the freight and trade volume varies over time, the compensation required by owners must also be varying. We, hence, attempt to shed some light on the risk by presenting an empirical model of the risk as a function of the conditional variance of forecast errors. We also show that time series models of bulk freight must both measure risk and its movement over time, and include it as a determinant of price.

港灣의 輸出物動量 豫測에 관한 硏究

모수원(Soo-Won Mo),조우길(Woo-Kil Cho) 한국항만경제학회 1999 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.15 No.-

The aim of this paper is to predict the demand for the port services based on the loading volumes. We employ Engle-Granger two-step cointegration technique, Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology and GPH test, because the model must be stationary to get the accuarte predicted values. The empirical results show that our model is stationary as well as mean-reverting. This paper applies variance decompositions to the model, indicating that imports are endogenous to the economic variables. The forecasts of loading volumes based on the structural models are compared to those of the random walk, showing that the former outperforms the latter.

무역수지와 환율의 변이성 : 한국의 경우

모수원(Soo Won Mo),조우길(Woo Kil Cho) 한국국제통상학회 1998 국제통상연구 Vol.3 No.1

In this paper, we investigate GARCH and ARCH models to examine the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and trade balances. We find that the ARCH(GARCH) conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the trade balance. This study also provides an empirical overview of the trade account and Korean won-dollar exchange rate using integer and fractional cointegration approach. The analysis of fractional cointegration which integrates the notions of cointegration and of fractional differencing allows the equilibrium error to follow a fractionally integrated process and avoids the stringent Ⅰ(1) and Ⅰ(0) distinction maintained in previous empirical work. This paper shows that all the fractional estimates of d not only lie between 0 and 1, but are greater than 0, suggesting a mean-reverting bahaviors.

開發途上國의 換率政策

趙又吉 順天大學校 1985 論文集 人文社會科學篇 Vol.4 No.-

The purpose of this paper is to review a number of approaches that are available for determining an appropriate excheange rate poloce for a developing economy. Developing countries have beon experiencing increasing balance of payments difficulties that are attriautable to their foreign exchange regimes. The appropriateness of a particular exchange rate policy should take into account a Country s production, Consumption, and trade and payments structure t These various aspects of the exchange rate issue have been Considered in this pafer. These issues are described as follows: (1)The adeguacy of an exchange rate policy cannot be determined only on the basis of past events, forwardlooking elements should be Considered simultaneously. (2)Microlevel studies on the production and cost structure and analysis of distortions as well as effective exchange rate indices should be Considerd. (3)The effects of exchange rate policy should be Considered in relation with other policy AnY can be validated by appropriate adjustments.

開放經濟와 換率政策의 效率性

趙又吉 순천대학교 사회과학연구소 1987 社會科學硏究 Vol.1 No.-

Because financial capital flows as well as world imports and exports were so restricted in the first two decades after world warⅡ, the theory of excange rate adjustment and the balance of payments was largely confined to analyses of the current account. However, for macroeconomic control and exchange rate determination in fully open economies the older keynes-Meade and elasticity approach become quite inappropriate. In the insular economy; ① The exchange rate was seen to be the principal instrument for controling the balance of payments. ② The exchange rater is assigned to control foreign payments, and it is viewed as an instrument essentially separate from domestic monetary policy. ③ The international adjustment mechanism set in motion by flexible exchange rates in toward balanced trade. ④ The exchange rate relates to the trade balance in an insular economy where the purchasing power of domestic money is independently establish. Although the monetary approach to exchange rate determination make an important step toward the understanding of foreign exchange markets of the 1970s, there were grounds for dissatisfaction: separable demand functions for eash national money are assumed to be stable. And this presumed stability underlies the case for floating exchange Rate. In the open economy; ① The current-account deficit of a country is the sum of the private financial deficit and the public deficit. The balance of payments figures in themselves will not tell one whether there is a problem. ② The net balance on current account does not itself indicate any disequilibrium warranting official Exchange rate changes. ③ In a "free float" the prevailing exchange rate is very sensitive to anticipated monetary policies. so authorities must demonstrate a willingness to adjust current money supplies to maintain the rate within "norm" as with a virtually fixed exchange rate. ④ Exchange rate expectations lead people to expect higher inflation in one country. However the regressive expectations set up equilibrium. ⑤ Natinal price levels can easily be detached from each other, monetary shocks can cause sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate.