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한국의 종교와 한국인 : A PROLEGOMENON TO A KOREAN HISTORY OF RELIGIONS
정진홍 이화여자대학교 한국문화연구원 2001 한국문화연구 Vol.1 No.-
In general, previous research on the Korean history of religions had the tendency to focus on historical changes of individual religions. There has been no comprehensive study on the Korean history of religions which considered various religions in terms of both cross-sectional profiles of various religions and the historical transmission of religion over time. This paper attempts such a methodological approach. The writer has attempted this approach in a previous study [Chung Chin-Hong, Hangook Jonggyo Munhwa-eoi Jeongae (Historical Development of Korean Religions), Seoul, Jipmundang, 1986]. This paper reviews the process of Korean indigenous religions incorporating the ‘newness’ of foreign religions with a view to demonstrating the fact that such process has molded a sense of syncretism in the religious disposition of the Korean people. Their fundamental religious ethos is oriented towards experience of heaven and quest for power. The former strives for the normative ideal, whereas the latter seeks actual utility. The interlocking conflicts and co-existence of these two notions have contributed to the development of what is a uniquely Korean religious experience, while serving as a filtering process in the acceptance of alien religions. The introduction of a foreign religion would infuse newness into the religious culture which the indigenous religions lacked. The mythos of Buddhism, the natura of Taoism, the logos of Confucianism and the theos of Christianity are examples of this newness. A foreign religion becomes relevant to the needs of Korean society by emphasizing specific subjects. In the process, adoption of a religion by the Korean religious culture depends on the dictates of the times and inter-religious conversions are freely exercised. It is also possible to develop an absolute faith in the imported religion. On the negative side, this syncretistic religious style may be attributed to market-oriented pragmatism. On the other hand, this attitude can be interpreted as indicating the creative motivation of the Korean religious culture. Korean religious syncretism has been undergoing continuous evolution. It is difficult, however, to make a prediction about for how long this syncretism will last or how it will evolve in the future. Perhaps more emphasis should be placed on the interpretive understanding of data rather than actual changes under the current situation where changes are inevitable.
앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용한 북한지역 극한강수량 전망
정진홍,박동혁,안재현 한국수자원학회 2019 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.52 No.10
기후변화에 따른 수문순환 요소들의 변화로 인해 미래에는 전 세계적으로 수문사상의 규모 및 빈도가 증가할 것이라는 많은 선행연구들이 있다. 하지만 북한지역의 미래 강수량에 대한 정량적 연구와 평가는 미비한 실정이다. 북한지역 역시 우리나라와 마찬가지로 극한강수에 따른 피해가 발생될 것으로 예상되기 때문에 북한지역에 관한 연구는 지속적으로 진행되어야 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 정상성 및 비정상성 빈도해석을 통해 북한지역의 미래(2020-2060년) 극한강수를 산정하고 현재기후(1981-2017년)와 비교․분석하였다. 비정상성 빈도해석은 RCP기후변화시나리오에 따라 모의된 HadGEM2-AO모델의 외부인자(JFM(1-3월), AMJ(4-6월), JAS(7-9월), OND(10-12월)의 평균 강수량)를 고려하여 수행하였다. 북한지역 극치 강우 사상과 유사한 경향을 보이는 외부인자 선정을 위해 앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용하여 연 최대 강우자료의 잔차를 추출하였다. 추출된 잔차와 외부인자 사이의 상관성분석을 실시하였다. 8개 지점(강계, 삼지연, 장진, 양덕, 함흥, 신포, 장전, 신계)에서 3개의 외부인자(AMJ, JAS, OND)가 경향이 있음을 확인하였다. 선정된 외부인자를 고려하여 비정상성 GEV모형을 구축하고 빈도해석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, RCP4.5에서는 8개 지점 중 4개 지점이 현재기후 대비 미래극한강수량이 감소하는 경향을 보였고 3개 지점이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 반면에 RCP8.5에서는 2개 지점이 감소하는 경향을 5개 지점이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.