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대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 한반도 주요 평야지역 논벼 소비수량 추정
정상옥,Chung, Sang-Ok 한국농공학회 2012 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.54 No.5
The paddy rice consumptive use in the six plains of the Korean peninsula was projected with changing climate under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. High resolution climate data for the baseline (1961-1990) was obtained from the International water management institute (IWMI) and future high resolution climate projection was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Reference evapotranspiration (ET) was calculated by using Hargreaves equation. The results of this study showed that the average annual mean temperature would increase persistently in the future. Temperatures were projected to increase more in RCP8.5 than those in RCP4.5 scenario. The rice consumptive use during the growing period was projected to increase slightly in the 2020s and then more significantly in the 2050s and 2080s. It showed higher values for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. The rice consumptive use after transplanting in the study areas would increase by 2.2 %, 5.1 % and 7.2 % for RCP4.5 and 3.0 %, 7.6 %, and 13.3 % for RCP8.5, in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline value of 534 mm. The results demonstrated the effects of climate change on rice consumptive use quite well, and can be used in the future agricultural water planning in the Korean peninsula.
정상옥,Jeong, Sang-Ok 한국수자원학회 2011 물과 미래(한국수자원학회지) Vol.44 No.9
본 고에서는 친수 및 경관 등의 기능을 고려한 농촌용수의 개발 및 관리방안에 대하여 소개하였다. 이러한 지역용수를 고려한 농촌용수 개발은 농촌에 활력을 불어 넣는데 큰 역할을 할 수 있을 것이다. 특히 4대강 둑 높이기 사업이나 농지전용 등으로 확보되는 수량을 적극적으로 지역용수로 활용하여 농촌발전에 기여할 수 있었으면 하는 바램이다. 앞으로 농촌용수 개발사업계획 및 설계에 적극 반영되기를 바라는 마음이다.
기후변화가 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량에 미치는 영향
정상옥,Chung, Sang-Ok 한국농공학회 2009 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.51 No.2
The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation requirements for Nakdong river basin in Korea have been analyzed. The HadCM3 model outputs for SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and International Water Management Institute $10'{\times}10'$ pixels observed data were used with kriging method. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the GIS. The results showed that the average growing season temperature was projected to increase by $2.2^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2), $0.0^{\circ}C$ (2050s B2), $3.7^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) and $2.9^{\circ}C$ (2080s B2) from the baseline (1961-1990) value of $21{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall was projected to increase by 15.2% (2050s A2), 24.2% (2050s B2), 41.4% (2080s A2) and 16.7% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 900 mm. Average volumetric irrigation demands were projected to decrease by 3.7% (2050s A2), 7.0% (2050s B2), 10.2% (2080s A2) and 1.4% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of $1.25{\times}10^9\;m^3$. These results can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning in the Nakdong river basin for the future.
지역기후모형 자료를 이용한 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량 예측
정상옥,Chung, Sang-Ok 한국농공학회 2009 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.51 No.4
The paddy irrigation demand for Nakdong river basin in Korea due to the climate change have been analyzed using regional climate model outputs. High-resolution (27 ${\times}$ 27 km) climate data for SRES A2 scenario produced by the Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), South Korea, and the observed baseline climatology dataset (1971-2000) were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by METRI. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the geographic information system. The results of this study showed that the average growing season temperature will increase steadily by 1.5 $^{\circ}C$ (2020s A2), 3.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2) and 5.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) from the baseline (1971-2000) 19.8 $^{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall will change by -3.4 % (2020s A2), 0.0 % (2050s A2) and +16.5 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 886 mm. Assuming paddy area and cropping pattern remain unchanged the average volumetric irrigation demands were predicted to increase by 5.3 % (2020s A2), 8.1 % (2050s A2) and 2.2 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 1.159 ${\times}$ $10^6\; m^3$. These projections are different from the previous study by Chung (2009) which used a different GCM and downscaling method and projected decreasing irrigation demands. This indicates that one should be careful in interpreting the results of similar studies.
정상옥,Chung, Sang-Ok 한국관개배수위원회 2009 한국관개배수논문집 Vol.16 No.1
기후변화 연구에 필요한 자료와 국제협약에 대하여 간략히 소개하였다. 또한 기후변화 모형과 상세화 기법에 대하여 소개하였다. IPCC의 역할과 각 실무그룹의 역할 및 평가보고서, 특별보고서, 기술보고서 등 발간물과 영국과 미국 등의 기후영향 프로그램을 간략히 소개하였다. 또한 국내의 주요 연구를 소개하였다. 여러 가지 시나리오에 대한 OAGCM실행 결과는 참고문헌과 소개된 홈페이지를 통하여 쉽게 구할 수 있을 것으로 생각한다. 본고가 기후 변화와 수자원 및 농업용수 분야에 미치는 영향에 대하여 관심 있는 회원들에게 조금이나마 도움이 되었으면 하는 바람이다.