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      • KCI등재

        국내⋅외 리튬 이온 배터리 수요 및 가격 예측

        박요한,이철용 한국혁신학회 2020 한국혁신학회지 Vol.15 No.2

        Environmental pollution has highlighted the importance of the electric car market as an alternative to internal combustion engine cars. The lithium-ion battery industry needs large amount of manufacturing facility investments, and market demand forecasts are important in terms of investment risk management. By presenting a model, this study took battery prices into consideration so that both market growth and electric vehicle growth competitiveness can be reflected in the forecast of demand in both the global and domestic lithium ion battery markets. The proposed model had better results than the Benchmarking model of the Bass, Logistic model in terms of predictability and accuracy. The global market forecast shows rapid growth in the lithium ion battery market starting from 2025. And as of 2030, the domestic market grows enough to play a role of semiconductor market. The scenario analysis of the domestic battery market showed that there was a six-fold difference in market size between optimistic and pessimistic approach, which necessitated a preemptive response. This study predicted the spread of the global lithium ion battery market by 2030, and reflected the scenario analysis for the domestic market and the battery price, which is an important factor in the lithium ion battery market and the spread of electric vehicles. 환경 오염으로 인해 내연 기관 자동차의 대체재로 전기 자동차의 중요성이 부각되고 있고, 전기 자동차의 핵심 부품인 리튬 이온 배터리 시장은 전기 자동차 시장의 성장에서 중요한 위치에 있다. 리튬 이온 배터리 산업은 대규모 제조 설비 투자가 필요한 산업으로 투자위험 관리 측면에서 시장의 수요 예측이 중요하다. 본 연구는 신기술의 확산에 중요한 가격을 반영한 새로운 예측모형을 개발하여 국내⋅외 리튬 이온 배터리 시장에 적용하는 것을목적으로 한다. 제안된 모형은 전통적인 확산모형인 Bass, Logistic 모형보다 적합성과 예측력 면에서 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 세계 시장을 예측한 결과에서는 2025년부터 리튬 이온배터리 시장은 급격한 성장세를 나타내며 2030년에는 150조원의 시장으로 성장하는 것으로나타났다. 2030년 국내 배터리 산업 규모는 비관안의 경우 9.8조원, 기준안의 경우 33.2조원, 낙관안의 경우 약 56.7조원으로 추정되어 향후 배터리 산업이 국내 경제에 큰 기여를 할것으로 전망 되었다. 본 연구 결과는 리튬 이온 배터리 시장의 성장 예측을 통해 기업 및국가 사업의 전략 수립에 기여를 할 것으로 기대된다.

      • KCI등재

        일반인 및 내원환자의 한방병원 진료에 대한 인식도 연구

        박요한,황대선,신현규,Bak, Yo-Han,Huang, Dae-Sun,Shin, Hyeun-Kyoo 대한한방내과학회 2010 大韓韓方內科學會誌 Vol.31 No.2

        Objectives : This study was carried out to measure perceptions about Traditional Korean Medicine hospitals and provide data for improvement of TKM hospital management. Methods : We surveyed the general population from 1st to 17th December, 2008, and patients visiting a TKM hospital from 1st June to 9th December, 2008. Results : Result as follows. 1. The response ratio for the generally preferred medical institution was in the order of western medical clinic, pharmacy, general hospital, TKM clinic, TKM hospital. 2. The response ratio for the preferred medical institution for herbal medicine treatment was in the order of TKM clinic, herbal medicine store, TKM hospital, pharmacy. The preferred medical institution for acupuncture treatment was in the order of TKM clinic, TKM hospital, acupuncture clinic, public health center. 3. The most common response to reason for receiving traditional Korean medical care was "traditional Korean medical care is more effective than western medical care." 4. The proportion of first treatment and second treatment of patients visiting at TKM hospital was about 1:1. 5. 72.3% of patients had been to another medical institution. 6. The response ratio for the first visited medical institution for the same disease was in the order of general hospital, western medical hospital, western medical clinic, TKM clinic. 7. The response ratio for the concern about TKM treatment was in the order of expensive charge for TKM treatment, uncertainty of TKM treatment effect. Conclusions : Through this research, we can understand the perception about TKM hospital treatment of the general population and patients visiting TKM hospitals.

      • KCI등재

        자동차보험 과실기준 기반 자동차사고유형 체계화에 관한 연구

        박요한,박원필,김승기,Park, Yohan,Park, Wonpil,Kim Seungki 한국자동차안전학회 2021 자동차안전학회지 Vol.13 No.4

        According to the Korean Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS), more than 200,000 traffic accidents occur every year. Also, the statistics including auto insurance companies data show 1.3 million traffic accidents. In the case of TAAS, the types of traffic accidents are simply divided into four; frontal collision, side collision, rear collision, and rollover. However, more detailed information is needed to assess for advanced driver assist systems at intersections. For example, directional information is needed, such as whether the vehicle in the car accident way in a straight or a left turn, etc. This study intends to redefine the type of accident with the more clear driving direction and path by referring to the Negligence standards used in automobile insurance accidents. The standards largely divide five categories of car-to-car/motorcycle /pedestrian/cyclist, and highway, and the each category is classified into dozens of types by status of the traffic signal, conflict situations. In order to present more various accident types for auto insurance accidents, the standards are reclassified driving direction and path of vehicles from crash situations. In results, the car-to-car accidents are classified into 33 accident types, car-to-pedestrian accidents have 19 accident types, car-to-motorcycle accidents have 38 accident types, and car-to-cyclist accidents are derived into 26 types.

      • 인텔 에디슨을 이용한 재난정보 알림 시스템 제안

        박요한,김영억 한국재난정보학회 2015 한국재난정보학회 학술대회 Vol.2015 No.11

        본 논문은 인텔 에디슨에 탑재된 WiFi 및 블루투스 모듈을 이용하여, 평상시 블루투스 소켓 통신으로 센 서 데이터를 전송하던 중, 센서로부터 위험요소를 감지하였을 때 WiFi 소켓 통신으로 재난 정보를 전송함으 로써 이를 경고하는 시스템을 제안하고자 한다. 이를 위해 인구밀집장소에서의 재난 발생과 유사한 환경을 구성한 후, 재난이 발생했을 때 효율적인 재난 정보 전송을 할 수 있는지 확인하고자 한다.

      • KCI등재

        Economic Growth and Leader Tenure

        박요한 한국자료분석학회 2017 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.19 No.6

        What explains the spell of top national leaders staying in power? Previous research has focused on international political factors, such as war, sanction, and terrorism, or domestic political factors such as democracy, state capacity, and civil war. This study examines the relationship between economic growth and leader tenure. A good economy can help political leadership by increasing (1) citizens’ satisfaction, (2) state resources, and (3) political legitimacy. Using the global cross-national sample for the post-World War period, this study finds a significant negative association between growth and leader exit, suggesting that economic growth reduces the chance that national leaders lose their political power. It also tests whether growth affects leader survival for both democracies and autocracies alike. Despite the previous finding that other important factors for leader tenure rarely affects the political survival of democratic leaders, my multiplicative interaction analysis shows that growth helps both democrats and autocrats maintain their political power.

      • KCI등재후보

        한방의료기관 한약제제 구비 현황 조사 연구

        박요한,황대선,신현규,Bak, Yo-Han,Huang, Dae-Sun,Shin, Hyeun-Kyoo 대한한의학방제학회 2010 大韓韓醫學方劑學會誌 Vol.18 No.1

        Objective : There is a growing need to expand or adjust insurance coverage of herbal prescriptions in National Health Insurance. The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for expansions or adjustments of 56 herbal prescriptions in the National Health Insurance. Method : We surveyed lists of 56 insurance-covered herbal prescriptions, non-covered company-produced herbal medicines and self-prepared herbal medicines in 531 traditional korean medical clinics by mail from 6/1/2008 to 12/9/2008. Result : Among the 56 Prescriptions, Ojeok-san was stocked in 66.7% of clinics (1st), Samso-eum ranked 2nd, Socheongnyong-tang ranked 3rd, Gumiganghwal-tang was 4th, Hyangsapyeongwi-san ranked 5th. Among the non-covered company-produced herbal medicines, Danggwisu-san ranked 1st, Gwakyangjeonggi-san ranked 2nd, Oryeong-san was 3rd, Bangpungtongseong-san was 4th, Maengmundong-tang ranked 5th. Among the self-prepared herbal medicines, Gongjin-dan ranked 1st, Soche-hwan was 2nd, Gyejibongnyeong-hwan was 3rd, Yeongsin-hwan was 4th, Palmi-hwan ranked 5th. Conclusions : It is reasonable to select frequently used company-produced or self-prepared herbal prescriptions in this stock rate survey for improvement of National Health Insurance coverage.

      • KCI등재

        Analysis of Plaque Composition in Coronary Chronic Total Occlusion Lesion Using Virtual Histology-Intravascular Ultrasound

        박요한,김용균,서덕준,서영훈,Chung-Seop Lee,송인걸,Dong Ju Yang,Ki-Hong Kim,Hyun Woong Park,Wan Ho Kim,배장호 대한심장학회 2016 Korean Circulation Journal Vol.46 No.1

        Background and Objectives: Success rates of chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have recently been reported to range from 80% to 90%. A better understanding of the pathologic characteristics of the CTO lesion may helpful to improving CTO PCI success rates. We evaluated the CTO lesion in patients with stable angina (SA) by virtual histology-intravascular ultrasound (VH- IVUS). Subjects and Methods: The study population consisted of 149 consecutive patients with SA underwent VH-IVUS examination. We analyzed demographic and VH-IVUS findings in 22 CTO patients (17 males; mean, 62.3 years old) compared with 127 non-CTO patients (82 males; mean, 61.3 years old). Results: A significantly lower ejection fraction (57.6±13.0% vs. 65.4±8.8%, p=0.007) was detected in the CTO group compared with the non-CTO group. Reference vessel lumen area of the proximal and distal segment was significantly less in CTO group than in non-CTO- group. The lesion length of the CTO group was significantly longer than those of the non-CTO group (24.4±9.6 mm vs. 17.2±7.4 mm, p<0.001). Total atheroma volume (224±159 mm3 vs. 143±86 mm3, p=0.006) and percent atheroma volume (63.2±9.6% vs. 55.8±8.5%, p=0.011) of the CTO group were also significantly greater than those of non-CTO group. However, the lesion length adjusted plaque composition of the CTO group was not significantly different compared with that of the non-CTO group. Conclusion: CTO lesions had a longer lesion length and greater plaque burden than the non-CTO lesion in patients with SA. However, lesion length adjusted plaque composition showed similar between the two groups. These results support that plaque characteristics of CTO lesions are similar to non-CTO lesions in patients with SA

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