경기변동 주기에서 설비투자 순환변동의 대내외적 요인 분석

박영준 한국자료분석학회 2019 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.21 No.2

This study examines the cyclical properties of equipment investment and its determinants by focusing our analysis on the behavior at a business cycle frequency. To this end, both a band-pass filter and vector autoregression with exogenous variables are employed for our analysis. Our VAR model incorporates the OECD world economic composite indicator and Dubai oil price which are exogenous to the small open economy of Korea, in addition to the endogenous variables of corporate bond yields and Won/Dollar exchange rate. The cyclical variations of equipment investment behave similar to the business cycles, and the duration of a full cycle has been getting shorter. The empirical findings reveal that world economic indicator is manifested as the most significant factor since Korea’s industry structure heavily relies on international trade. The impulse responses due to oil price and corporate bond yields decrease after the global financial crisis. These results provide significant implications to current economic condition as the contraction phase of international business cycles are expected. 본 연구는 대역통과 필터 기법과 국내 변수의 충격에 독립적인 해외 변수에 외생성 제약을 부여한 벡터자기회귀모형을 추정하여 우리나라 설비투자의 경기순환적 특징과 순환변동에 영향을 미치는 대내외적 요인을 분석하였다. 실증분석에서 설비투자의 대내적 요인으로 회사채수익률과 원/달러 환율을 사용하였고, 대외적 요인으로는 국제유가와 OECD에서 발표하는 세계경기지표를 이용하였다. 설비투자의 순환변동은 글로벌 금융위기 이전에는 수축기가 상대적으로 더 길었으나 금융위기 이후에는 확장기의 지속기간이 더 긴 것으로 나타났다. 이는 미래의 경기에 대한 기대가 기업의 설비투자 의사결정에 반영된 것으로 판단되며, 설비투자의 순환 주기가 점점 짧아지는 추세를 보이고 있다. 그리고 2000년대 이후 우리나라 설비투자는 세계 경기와 같은 대외 경제 여건에 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 해외 수요적 요인이 중요하게 나타난 것은 우리나라 산업 구조가 대체로 무역에 많이 의존하는 소규모 개방경제의 성격을 갖기 때문인 것으로 여겨진다. 설비투자에 대한 국제유가의 영향력은 글로벌 금융위기를 겪으면서 그 이전보다 상대적으로 감소하였다. 향후 세계 경기의 성장 둔화와 하방위험이 커지고 있는 상황에서 본 연구결과는 급감하고 있는 우리나라 설비투자에 대해 의미 있는 시사점을 제공한다.

A Basic Study to Measure the Effectiveness of the Korean Green Building Certification System in Terms of Sustainability

박영준,손기영,안성진,김선국 한국건축시공학회 2012 한국건축시공학회지 Vol.12 No.6

Humanity is facing a number of serious issues associated with increased energy consumption and environmental pollution. Various studies/guidelines concerning sustainable building construction have suggested solutions to these disastrous problems, including: net-zero energy buildings, the green building certification system, and others. Sustainability pursues three expected effects: environmental, social, and economic merits. Korean Green Building Council (K-GBC) has also announced the Korean Green Building Certification System (K-GBCS) since 2003 based on sustainability. Some positive social and environmental aspects of the K-GBCS have already been reported. However, it is somewhat difficult to verify its economic merits, which are crucial to ensuring the validity of the K-GBCS. This research aims to verify the economic merits of the eco-friendly Korean-style condominiums accredited by K-GBCS. Following this, the expected economic effectiveness of K-GBCS will be examined in terms of sustainability. The underlying assumption is that the potential economic effect should reflect the actual economic merits, and should reflect the value of the housing in particular. According to the analysis of the variance, it can be concluded the value of green certified buildings is statistically higher than the value of non-certified buildings. Furthermore, it was also observed that this tendency was more dominant in Gyeonggi Province than in the City of Seoul. This may be caused by one of the variables: the proximity to downtown. In future studies, this variable should be studied in greater detail.

Load sharing and distributed on the gear flank of wind turbine planetary gearbox

박영준,김정길,이근호,심성보 대한기계학회 2015 JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Vol.29 No.1

In the design of wind turbine gearboxes, the most important objective is to improve the durability to guarantee a service life of morethan 20 years. Planetary gearsets, commonly used in wind turbine gearboxes, should have good load distribution and load sharing amonggears to improve the durability. This work investigates how the optimal helix modification influence both the load distribution over thegear tooth flank and the planet load sharing. A whole system model is developed to analyze a wind turbine gearbox (WTG) that consistsof planetary gearsets. The model includes the nonlinear mesh stiffness of gears and the nonlinear stiffness of bearings as well as the flexibilitiesof the housing, planet carriers, and ring gears. The results presented state that if the optimal helix modification is applied, the edgeloading of gear tooth ends will disappear and the contact pattern will improve significantly. This is why the face load factor will decreaseand the gear safety factor will increase. However, the mesh load factor is decreased slightly after helix modification. This means that thehelix modification is not directly related to the mesh load factor.

일본 〈방위계획대강 2010〉과 한국 안보정책에의 시사점

박영준 재단법인 동아시아연구원 2010 EAI 논평 Vol.- No.16

Rank Distribution of PCA Coefficients for Feature Selection

박영준,김성범 한국경영과학회 2013 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2013 No.5

해상여객운송에서의 강제책임보험제도 도입에 관한 법적 고찰

박영준 한국경영법률학회 2006 經營法律 Vol.17 No.1

U.S. Housing Price Dynamics and the Federal Funds Rate by Timescale

박영준 한국자료분석학회 2010 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.12 No.6

This paper examines U.S. housing price dynamics by timescale and its relationship with the federal funds rate. The real housing price indexes are decomposed into signals at different frequencies by wavelet multiresolution decomposition. I then apply principal component analysis to identify the latent driving forces of housing price movements by defining the national and local components in the wavelet domain. Moreover, Granger causality test is performed to see whether the federal funds rate is an effective policy tool to mitigate housing boom. The findings include (ⅰ) the periodicity of U.S. housing cycles at different time horizon, (ⅱ) tracing out the relative importance between the national and local components, and (ⅲ) that the federal funds rate could be an effective policy tool to mitigate speculative housing transactions in the short run and also to drive the housing boom-bust cycles in the long run.

임대차보증금 반환보장보험제도의 도입에 관한 연구

박영준 한국경영법률학회 2007 經營法律 Vol.18 No.1

【Abstract】 A Study on the Introduction of Rental Deposit Guarantee Insurance Young Joon Park According to recent housing census by Korea National Statistical Office, almost half of koreans are renting their houses for their residence although the rate of national dwelling per household rate has already been over 100%. Thus, rental deposit is the most significant part of common people’s assets and national legal system should protect this as a social safeguard. In order to satisfy this purpose, the Housing Lease Protection Act was enacted on march 1981. This act, which guarantees minimum rental period for 2 years, lessee's prior payment right and a small-sum lessee's top prior payment right, has protected lessees more than ever. However, lessees are still dissatisfied with the protection under the current act. The most severe problem is that lessor does not return the rental deposit to lessee immediately. Therefore, Ministry of Justice, as a part of legal system reformation for improving common people' life, considers the introduction of the Rental Deposit Guarantee Insurance for rapid returning rental deposit by lessor. This paper will study some legal issues on the introduction of Rental Deposit Guarantee Insurance.

일본 민주당 정권의 외교안보정책 변화와 한일관계 전망

박영준,이숙종 재단법인 동아시아연구원 2009 EAI 논평 Vol.- No.3

노인복지시설 종사자의 여가태도, 여가제약 그리고 서비스 질의 인과모형에 관한 연구

박영준,김선희 한국스포츠리서치 2006 한국 스포츠 리서치 Vol.17 No.5