뉴질랜드 어획량 균형 제도: 시행전략모델

남종오 ( Jong Oh Nam ),( Gabriela Dobrot ) 한국환경경제학회 한국자원경제학회 2008 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.17 No.4

경상남도와 전라남도의 수산업 관련 주요 지표에 대한 비교 예측

남종오(Jong-Oh NAM),박철형(Cheol-Hyung PARK),신용민(Yong-Min SHIN),김봉태(Bong-Tae KIM),이헌동(Heon-Dong LEE),손진곤(Jin-Gon SON),권오민(Oh-Min KWON),이무희(Mu-hui LEE),정민경(Min-gyeong JEONG) 한국수산해양교육학회 2023 水産海洋敎育硏究 Vol.35 No.5

노르웨이의 개별어선할당량(IVQ)제도에 관한 연구

남종오(Nam Jong-Oh),이창수(Lee Chang-Soo),김수현(Kim Soo-Hyun) 한국해양수산개발원 2009 해양정책연구 Vol.24 No.1

This paper examines how Norway with fisheries situations similar with Korea has evolved various quota management systems including the Individual Vessel Quota System suitable to its fisheries circumstances. In detail, this paper introduces three major fisheries regulations that are composed of technical regulation including effort regulation, catch regulation, and structural regulation in order to precisely comprehend various quota management systems with Norway. Furthermore, this paper shows that Norway has, by stages, established unique catch regulation systems appropriate to its fisheries environments on a foundation of sound technical and structural regulations. As examples of it, this paper presents Norwegian maximum quota, group quota, unit quota, and IVQ systems based on scientific and systematic catch reporting and monitoring systems and Agreement with neighboring countries to limit annual harvest by Total Allowable Catch. In conclusion, the Norwegian quota management systems were slightly different with general individual transferable quota system with other nations in aspects of transferability and allocations of quotas as well as centralization of capital. The reason for this is that Norway implemented these quota management systems after profoundly considering a variety of problems with which its fisheries industry was faced. Therefore, this paper suggests that Norwegian IVQ system including other quota systems can provide meaningful implications in Korea which is going to consider implementation of the market-oriented ITQ system suitable to its fisheries circumstances in the near future.

바이오경제모형을 이용한 최적 생산량 분석: 수산업을 중심으로

남종오 ( Jong Oh Nam ),최종두 ( Jong Do Choi ),조정희 ( Jung Hee Cho ),이정삼 ( Jung Sam Lee ) 한국환경경제학회 한국자원경제학회 2010 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.19 No.4

본 논문은 이산바이오경제모형을 이용하여 자유입어와 단독소유상황 하에서 지속가능한 자원을 유지하고, 경제적 이윤 극대화를 달성할 수 있는 최적 생산량을 추정하였다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 로지스틱 성장함수, 콥-더글러스 생산함수, 수산물에 대한 비용 및 이윤함수들이 사용되었으며, 대형선망어업에서 주로 어획되는 고등어와 전갱이 자원이 분석대상으로 이용되었고, 관련 모형과 자료를 통하여 각 어종의 최적 생산과 어획노력을 분석하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 단독소유의 생태적 균형 하에서 대체적으로 고등어의 최적 생산량은 17만 2,512톤, 전갱이의 최적 생산량은 1만 6,937톤으로 추정되었다. 아울러 동일한 상황을 가정한 상태에서 최적 어획노력량의 경우 고등어는 8,508 양망횟수, 전갱이는 4,915 양망횟수로 추정되었다. 결론적으로 현행 대형선망어업보다 더 높은 순현재가치 창출을 위한 최적 관리(경영)는 어획노력량 수준을 다소 감소시켜 어업자원을 최적 수준으로 증가시켜야 한다는 것이다. This paper estimates optimal production of fish stock using discrete time bio-economic model to make zero profits or to maximize economic profits with maintaining sustainable resource levels under an open access and a sole owner. Particularly, this study generates optimal yields and efforts of large purse seine fisheries which catch mackerel and jack mackerel by using the logistic growth function, Cobb-Douglas production function, fisheries cost and profit functions. As a result, optimal yields of mackerel and jack mackerel under ecological equilibrium of a sole owner were approximately 172,512 tons and 16,937 tons respectively. Also, optimal fishing efforts of mackerel and jack mackerel under the same situation were about 8,508 hauls and 4,915 hauls respectively. In conclusion, the paper suggests that the large purse seine should reduce fishing efforts and increase fish stock to generate higher net present value in optimally managed fishery than that of the present large purse seine.

Nerlove 부분조정모형을 이용한 일본의 넙치 수요 분석

남종오(Nam Jong-oh),백은영(Baek Eun-young),한병세(Han Byung-sae) 한국해양수산개발원 2008 해양정책연구 Vol.23 No.2

This paper provides the estimation of flounder demand function in Japan, using Nerlove's partial adjustment model in order to forecast short- and long-term changes in flounder consumed in Japan. To estimate the flounder demand function, this paper uses several econometrics methods. First of all, to solve problems of endogenous lag variables related with a dependent variable, this paper uses the Nerlove's partial adjustment model rather than the Koyck's model, the Cagan's adaptive expectation model, and compound geometric lag model of the Nerlove and the Cagan, and etc. Secondly, to cure problems of autocorrelation between error terms, this paper transforms the Nerlove's partial adjustment model through the Cochrane-Orcutt Iterative Method. Thirdly, to forecast short-and long-term demand quantities of flounder in Japan from the Nerlove's model transformed, this paper uses a forecasting equation, using price and income elasticities, increasing rates of population, price, and income, and autocorrelation coefficient(ρ). The results suggests that in short-term, Japanese flounder demand quantities will stay in the current level or very slightly increase, but in long-term, the quantities will increase by 2.73%.

김장굴의 수요 분석 및 예측

남종오 ( Jong Oh Nam ),노승국 ( Seung Guk Nho ) 한국수산경영학회 2011 수산경영론집 Vol.42 No.2

This paper estimates demand functions of oyster as Kimchi`s ingredients of capital area, other areas excluding a capital area, and a whole area in Korea to forecast its demand quantities in 2011~2015. To estimate oyster demand function, this paper uses pooled data produced from Korean housewives over 30 years old in 2009 and 2010. Also, this paper adopts several econometrics methods such as Ordinary Least Squares and Feasible Generalized Least Squares. First of all, to choose appropriate variables of oyster demand functions by area, this paper carries out model`s specification with joint significance test. Secondly, to remedy heteroscedasticity with pooled data, this paper attempts residual plotting between estimated squared residuals and estimated dependent variable and then, if it happens, undertakes White test to care the problem. Thirdly, to test multicollinearity between variables with pooled data, this paper checks correlations between variables by area. In this analysis, oyster demand functions of a capital area and a whole area need price of the oyster, price of the cabbage for Gimjang, and income as independent variables. The function on other areas excluding a capital area only needs price of the oyster and income as ones. In addition, the oyster demand function of a whole area needed White test to care a heteroscedasticity problem and demand functions of the other two regions did not have the problem. Thus, first model was estimated by FGLS and second two models were carried out by OLS. The results suggest that oyster demand quantities per a household as Kimchi`s ingredients are going to slightly increase in a capital area and a whole area, but slightly decrease in other areas excluding a capital area in 2011~2015. Also, the results show that oyster demand quantities as kimchi`s ingredients for total household targeting housewives over 30 years old are going to slightly increase in three areas in 2011~2015.

해밀토니안기법을 이용한 복수어업의 참조기 최적어획량 추정

남종오 ( Jong Oh Nam ),심성현 ( Seong Hyun Sim ),권오민 ( Oh Min Kwon ) 한국수산경영학회 2015 수산경영론집 Vol.46 No.2

This study aims to estimate optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the offshore Stow Net and the offshore Gill Net fisheries using the current value Hamiltonian method and the surplus production model. As analyzing processes, firstly, this study uses the Gavaris general linear model to estimate standardized fishing efforts of yellow croaker caught by the above multiple fisheries. Secondly, this study applies the Clarke·Yoshimoto·Pooley(CY&P) model among the various exponential growth models to estimate intrinsic growth rate(r), environmental carrying capacity(K), and catchability coefficient(q) of yellow croaker which inhabits in offshore area of Korea. Thirdly, the study determines optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker using the current value Hamiltonian method which is including average landing price of yellow croaker, average unit cost of fishing efforts, and social discount rate based on standard of the Korean Development Institute. Finally, this study tries sensitivity analysis to understand changes in optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caused by changes in economic and biological parameters. As results drawn by the current value Hamiltonian model, the optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the multiple fisheries were estimated as 19,173 ton, 101,644 horse power, and 146,144 ton respectively. In addition, as results of sensitivity analysis, firstly, if the social discount rate and the average landing price of yellow croaker continuously increase, the optimal harvesting production of yellow croaker increases at decreasing rate and then finally slightly decreases due to decreases in stock levels of yellow croaker. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts of the multiple fisheries decreases, but the optimal stock level of yellow croaker increases. The optimal harvest starts climbing and then continuously decreases due to increases in the average unit cost. Thirdly, when the intrinsic growth rate of yellow croaker increases, the optimal harvest, fishing efforts, and stock level all continuously increase. In conclusion, this study suggests that the optimal harvesting production and fishing efforts were much less than actual harvesting production(35,279 ton) and estimated standardized fishing efforts(175,512 horse power) in 2013. This result implies that yellow croaker has been overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservative policy on stock of yellow croaker need to be urgently implemented.

AHP 기법을 이용한 우리나라 수산업관측사업의 추진방향에 관한 연구

남종오 ( Jong Oh Nam ),노승국 ( Seung Guk Nho ) 한국수산경영학회 2010 수산경영론집 Vol.41 No.1

AHP 기법을 이용한 우리나라 수산종자 관측체계 구축에 관한 연구

남종오(Jong oh Nam),이정미(Jung mi Lee) 한국해양비즈니스학회 2016 해양비즈니스 Vol.- No.33

The purpose of this paper is to suggest process direction on basic design of the Korean fisheries seed outlook project. To suggest the above purpose to the Korean Fisheries Outlook Center, this paper employs Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis based on surveys obtained by special groups such as professors, aqua-farmers, and public officers. As a result of AHP analysis, first, priorities of upper strategies with the Korean fisheries seed outlook project are analyzed as information collection, information provision, information analysis in order. Secondly, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as contents of information collection, method of information collection, period of information collection, method of information analysis, range of information analysis, time of information provision, target of information provision, and method of information provision in order. Thirdly, priorities of the all lowest strategies reflecting priorities of the lower and the upper strategies are examined as complete enumeration survey, production information collection, quantitative analysis, trend analysis, monthly report, consumption information analysis, sample survey, seasonal report, qualitative analysis, distribution information collection, forecast analysis, weekly report, off-line delivery, online delivery, and new online delivery in order.

냉동 고등어 소비자가격 모형 간 예측력 비교

정민경 ( Min-gyeong Jeong ),남종오 ( Jong-oh Nam ) 한국수산경영학회 2021 수산경영론집 Vol.52 No.4

The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil’s inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.