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인과에 대한 개입(intervention) 이론의 문제와 최적합 모형
김준성 사단법인 인문사회과학기술융합학회 2019 예술인문사회융합멀티미디어논문지 Vol.9 No.2
학제 간에 융합하는 최근 연구의 흐름을 대표하는 인과에 대한 이론이 개입(intervention) 인과 이론이다. 이 이론에 따르면, 원인으로서 요인, 변수, 사건에 대한 개입(변화, 조종)은 결과로서 요인, 변수, 사건에 대한 개입(변화, 조종)이 된다. 개입 인과 이론은 조종 인과 이론에 대한 비판들에 대응하면서 발전된 조종 인과 이론이다. 특별히 개입에 대한 조건들이 구체화되면서 개입 인과 이론은 논리적 엄밀함을 갖춘 이론으로 발전되었다. 또한 개입 인과 이론은 인과 구조 모형 이론의 개념적 토대로서 그 의미와 역할이 크게 부각되었다. 이 글에서 필자는 개입 인과 이론이 인과 구조를 해명하는 데에 유의미한 이론이 될 수 있는지를 비판적으로 검토한다. 첫째, 조종 인과 이론의 특성과 이에 따른 문제들을 소개하고 논의하겠다. 둘째, 조종으로서 인과를 개입 개념으로 해명하는 개입 인과 이론을 소개하고 그 이론의 한계에 주목한다. 셋째, 개입 인과 이론에 대한 반례와 그 반례에 대한 논쟁을 검토한다. 넷째, 그 논쟁을 평가하고 개입 인과 이론과 인과에 대한 확률 이론을 비교하여 개입 인과 이론에 무엇이 필요한지를 밝힌다. The intervention theory of causation is aligned with the recent interests of interdisciplinary studies. The intervention theory has been articulated from manipulation theories of causation. According to the manipulation theories, manipulating a causal factor, variable or event is followed by manipulating an effect factor, variable or event. Several criticisms have arisen of the manipulation theories. The manipulation theories have been articulated rigorously against those criticisms. In particular, the concept of manipulation has been explicated in terms of intervention. The noticeable recent theories of causal modeling are founded on the concept of causality as intervention. In this paper, I critically examine the recently articulated intervention theory of causation while noticing the problems with it and the previous causal theories of manipulation. I show that the intervention theory is merely a disguised theory of instrumental variables while noticing that the probabilistic theory of causation is logically more rigorous and more parsimonious than the intervention theory. I conclude that the intervention theory is replaceable with the probabilistic theory of causation.
김준성,권정이,강세윤,박정원 대한재활의학회 2004 Annals of Rehabilitation Medicine Vol.28 No.6
Objective: To identify the range of the precise locations of the motor points of biceps brachii and brachialis muscles in relation to bony landmarks. Method: Nine upper limbs of five male cadavers were dissected. The number and location of the motor points from the musculocutaneous nerve to biceps brachii and brachialis muscles were identified in relation to the bony landmarks. Bony landmarks were coracoid process and lateral epicondyle of the humerus. The length of the arm was defined as the distance from the apex of the coracoid process to the lateral epicondyle of humerus. The locations of the motor points were expressed as the percentage ratio of the length from the coracoid process to the motor points in relation to the length of the arm. Results: First proximal motor points of the long head, short head of biceps brachii, and brachialis were located in 47.5±5.6%, 53.0±4.6%, 64.3±3.4% and second proximal points of them were 51.8±2.9%, 57.7±3.5%, 68.5±4.4% respectively. Conclusion: The identification of the locations of motor points related to the bony landmarks would increase the accuracy and ease of the motor point blocks to elbow flexors such as biceps brachii and brachialis muscles.
품질/확률모형 : 기관들의 랭킹을 위한 구조방정식 모형의 사용
김준성,조윤주,전치혁 대한산업공학회 2010 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.-
A structural equation model (SEM) is considered for determining rankings of institutions. In the proposed algorithm, we treat the rankings of institutions as missing values and then estimate the construct variables based on SEM using partial least squares. The weights between manifest and construct variables as well as the coefficient between construct variables will be determined iteratively according to regression models. Differently from the usual weight and sum method, weights will be determined internally by the algorithm. Several simulations are performed to validate the proposed algorithm.
김준성,김병욱,김도훈,박찬혁,이혁,주문경,정다현,정준원,최혁순,백광호,이정훈,송교영,허세범,대한소화기학회 가이드라인위원회,대한상부위장관·헬리코박터학회,대한소화기내시경학회,대한위암학회,대한인터벤션영상의학회 대한소화기학회 2020 대한소화기학회지 Vol.75 No.6
Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) refers to bleeding that develops in the gastrointestinal tract proximal to the ligament of Treitz. NVUGIB is an important cause for visiting the hospital and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Although European and Asian-Pacific guidelines have been published, there has been no previous guidelines regarding management of NVUGIB in Korea. Korea is a country with a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection and patients have easy accessibility to receive endoscopy. Therefore, we believe that guidelines regarding management of NVUGIB are mandatory. The Korean Society of Gastroenterology reviewed recent evidence and recommends practical management guidelines on NVUGIB in Korea.
한우 GPD1 유전자의 SNP와 육량 및 육질형질과의 연관성 분석
김준성,방주희,신성철,정의룡 강원대학교 동물생명과학연구소(구 강원대학교 동물자원공동연구소) 2016 동물자원연구 Vol.27 No.3
This study aimed to indentify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in exon region of the glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase 1 (GPD1) gene and to evaluate their associations with meat yield and quality traits in Hanwoo (Korean cattle). Two SNP markers, g.2766C>T and g.5105A>G were identified in the exons 5 and 8, respectively. Genotyping of the two SNPs was carried out using PCR-RFLP analysis in 309 Hanwoo steers to evaluate their associations with meat yield and quality traits. As a result, g.2766C>T in exon 5 was significantly associated with carcass weight (CW) and marbling score (MS). Animals with the CC genotype of g.2766C>T had heavier CW than those with the CA or AA genotype. Animals with the CC genotype of g.2766C>T also had higher MS than those with the CA or AA genotype. Additive effect was also observed with CW and MS traits. We constructed haplotypes by linkage disequilibrium analysis and analyzed association between haplotypes and meat yield and quality traits. Haplotype of GPD1 gene was associated with CW. As a result, animals with CA haplotype had heavier CW than TG haplotype. These findings suggest that the SNPs of bovine GPD1 gene may be a useful molecular marker for selection of meat yield and quality traits in Hanwoo