The Effect of Tariff-tax Reforms on Revenue and Welfare in a Complementary Goods Market

Kieun Shim(심기은),Kyonghwa Jeong(정경화) 한국산업경제학회 2013 산업경제연구 Vol.26 No.5

본 연구는 관세 인하에 따라 줄어드는 세수를 보전하기 위해서 소비세를 인상하는 세제개혁이 정부수입과 후생에 미치는 영향을 보완재시장을 중심으로 분석한다. 본 연구의 분석에 적용된 관세 및 세제정책은, 첫째, 관세 인하 분만큼 소비세를 올리는 정책, 둘째 관세인하 후 수입품의 소비가격을 변하지 않게 유지하는 선에서 소비세를 인상하는 정책 등이 있다. 분석 결과는 다음의 결과를 제시하고 있다. 첫째, 가격 및 수량경쟁 하에서 동 관세 및 세제 개혁 정책은 국내제품과 수입품의 보완성 정도에 상관없이 보완재시장에서 사회전체후생을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 더 나아가 두 제품이 완벽보완재에 가까울 때 사회후생의 감소가 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 동 정책들이 세수에 미치는 영향은 관세 인하 전 부과하고 있던 소비세의 크기와 국내상품과 수입품의 보완성 정도에 따라 달라질 수 있는데, 먼저 소비세가 낮을 때는 교환재 및 보완재 양시장에서 세수가 증가하고, 소비세가 중간정도 일 때는 교환재 시장에서는 세수의 증가가, 보완재 시장에서는 두 제품 간 보완성 정도가 일정 수준 이하 일 때만 세수가 증가한다. 마지막으로 소비세가 높을 때에는 보완재시장에서 세수가 감소하는 반면 교환재 시장에서는 두 제품의 상호 교환성이 강한 경우 세수가 증가하는 결과가 도출되었다. 따라서 보완재 시장에서 관세 인하에 따른 세제 정책은 소비세가 높을수록 또는 국내상품과 수입품 간의 보완성이 강할수록 세수가 감소할 가능성이 높아진지는 결과가 도출되었다. 이는 소비세가 일정 수준 이상으로 부과 되고 있을 때, 관세 인하에 따른 소비세 인상정책이 보완재 시장에서는 교환재시장의 결과와는 달리 세수가 오히려 감소하는 결과가 도출된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존의 선행연구에서 제시된 관세 인하에 따른 소비세 인상정책이 소비세가 특정 수준 이상이고, 여기에 국내제품과 수입품의 상호보완성이 높은 시장에서는 사회후생과 세수를 모두 감소시키는 적절하지 않은 정책임을 보여주고 있다. This paper examines the revenue and welfare effects of tariff-tax reforms that consist of the following: 1) combining a cut in import duties with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes, and 2) leaving consumer prices of imported goods unchanged after the tariff-tax reform, focusing on a complementary goods market. In this study, we find the following three results. Firstly, under both Cournot and Bertrand competition, the reforms are welfare-reducing for any degree of complementarity between domestic and imported goods. Secondly, when the initial consumption taxes are high enough, both reforms are revenue-diminishing in a complementary goods market, whereas identical reforms are revenue-enhancing for a low degree of product differentiation in a substitutable goods market. Thirdly, when domestic and imported goods are close to perfect complements, the reforms are the most welfare-reducing and are highly likely to reduce government revenue even when initial consumption tax rates are moderate. In a complementary goods market, the tariff-tax reforms reduce both revenue and welfare although the primary purpose of the tax reforms is to make up shortfall from tariff cuts. Thus, the tariff-tax reform policies are ineffective in a complementary goods market under the following conditions: 1) when the initial consumption taxes are sufficiently high, and 2) when domestic and imported goods are close to perfect complements and the initial consumption taxes are higher than a certain moderate level.

한-GCC FTA에 따른 관세 및 소비세 개혁정책이 정유사의 이익과 정부세수에 미치는 영향

심기은(Kieun Shim) 한국무역연구원 2014 무역연구 Vol.10 No.3

As the Korea-GCC FTA is expected to be signed in the near future, the Korean government has begun to be concerned about revenue losses following tariff cuts on imported crude oil. This study extends Shim and Jung (2012) taking Korean oil firms exporting activities into account, and examines the effects of tariff cuts and consumption tax reform on the oil firms profits and government revenue. When Korean government implements the plausible tariff-tax reform strategy, which is to increase consumption taxes at a scale of less than the tariff cuts times the pre-tax reform crude oil price. it turns out to increase oil firms profits in domestic supply of petroleum products, but decrease their profits in exports of petroleum products. Therefore, when this strategy is implemented, Korean oil firms increase domestic supply and reduce exports of petroleum products. Regarding the government revenue, this strategy causes revenue loss, which is the similar results of Shim and Jung(2012). However, the negative effect of the strategy on government revenue in this study turns out to be not as big as Shim and Jung(2012) s result. This indicates that the revenue effect of the same strategy suggested by Shim and Jung(2012) is exaggerated.

단위생산 당 온실가스 배출과 우리나라의 수출

심기은(Kieun Shim) 에너지경제연구원 2009 에너지경제연구 Vol.8 No.2

환경오염산업에서 환경규제와 교역의 관계를 설명하는 전통적인 견해인 ‘오염피난처 가설’에 입각하여, 본 연구는 산업별 단위생산 당 온실가스 배출량이 우리나라의 수출에 미치는 영향을 실증분석을 통해 분석한다. 본 분석에서는 1996년부터 2006년까지 11년간의 우리나라의 수출 패널 데이터를 단순 OLS와 연도 및 산업 고정효과를 처리한 OLS 방법으로 실증 분석 한다. 연도 및 산업의 고정효과를 처리한 OLS 분석 결과에 의거, 환경오염산업으로 분류되는 제지 및 인쇄, 석유화학, 1차금속 등 3개 산업에서 우리나라의 산업별 단위생산 당온실가스 배출량이 1% 감소할 경우 수출은 1) 현재가치 생산액 기준을 적용한 경우 1.803% 줄어들고, 2) 생산자 물가를 조정한 경우 2.013% 줄어드는 결과를 본 연구는 보여준다. 이 결과는 부분적으로 오염피난처 가설이 성립함을 보여 주고 있다. Based on 'Pollution Heaven Hypothesis', the introduction of more stringent environmental regulations has been traditionally seen as potentially harmful for exports as it leads to higher costs faced by firms. By applying this to greenhouse gas emissions, the more stringent environmental regulations for air pollution lead to the reduction of greenhouse gas. In the context of pollution haven hypothesis, this study investigates the impact of the reduction of both exporter(Korea) and importers' greenhouse gas on Korea's export flows in dirty industry by estimating the gravity equation. This study uses the data which cover 11 years from 1996 to 2006. The estimation result shows that : (1) our results are partly consistent with pollution haven hypothesis, (2) one percent reduction of the industry size- adjusted greenhouse gas leads to the decline of Korea's export flows in the range between 0.4084% and 2.1032% in dirty industries.

R&D가 수출에 미치는 영향: 고기술산업과 저기술산업의 비교 분석

홍혜정(Hye-Jeong Hong):심기은(Kieun Shim),김효진(Hyo-jin Kim) 한국무역연구원 2016 무역연구 Vol.12 No.6

Existing empirical studies have focused on investigating the impact of R&D on exports by using the data that cover mainly electronics or all manufacturing sectors. Though the studies using the data of the electronics sector find evidence of the positive relationship between R&D and exports, the other studies covering the data of the integrated macro level or the manufacturing sector find no coherent relationship between two variables. These vague results between R&D and exports are attributed to overlooking the technology gap across the industry. Therefore, we estimate the effects of R&D on exports in the high-tech and low-tech industries by using the random-effects tobit regression, and compare them to each other. This study uses samples of companies in the high-tech and low-tech industries during the period from 2008 to 2015, which are listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. The regression results show that R&D has a positive effect on exports in high-tech industries while no clear evidence of the positive linkage between R&D and exports appears in low-tech industries. More importantly, we find that external marketing expenditures turn out to play a more critical role than R&D in increasing exports in low-tech industries.

베트남의 WTO가입 이후 한국의 대베트남 FDI와 중간재 수출의 관계

홍혜정(Hye-Jeong Hong),심기은(Kieun Shim) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.5

As operational costs in China continue to rise, an increasing number of Korean companies are looking at either relocating or moving part of their China-based facilities to lower cost markets elsewhere in emerging Asia. Meanwhile, Vietnam has been actively attracting foreign direct investment through tax incentives and preferential policies since it joined WTO in 2007. This paper investigates the relationship between Korea’s FDI in Vietnam and its exports of intermediate goods in the manufacturing sector during the following two separate periods: 2002-2006 and 2007-2013 using the system GMM technique. Estimation results find the evidence of positive relationship between Korea’s outward FDI in Vietnam and its exports of intermediate goods only during the period from 2007 to 2013. This paper confirms that in the manufacturing sector, the vertical FDI is dominant in Korea’s FDI in Vietnam since 2007. This result shows indirect evidence that Vietnam is fast emerging into Korea’s new manufacturing base and export-driven country as an alternative to China.

후쿠시마 원전 사고 이후 한·일 간 수산물 교역의 변화

김효진(Hyo-Jin Kim),심기은(Kieun Shim) 한국무역연구원 2021 무역연구 Vol.17 No.1

Purpose This paper investigates how the Fukushima nuclear disaster has influenced on trade patterns in fish and fishery products between Korea and Japan. Design/Methodology/Approach We used panel data consisting of 27 groups in Fish and Fishery Products for the periods from 2001 to 2016. The data was analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression technique. In the first analysis;we divided the data into two periods: 2001-2010 and 2011-2016;and compared the estimation results. In the second analysis;using the entire period of data;we additionally used the Fukushima dummy interaction terms;which are added as forms of multiplication of Fukushima dummy variable and independent variables. Findings Empirical results of the first analysis show that for the period after Fukushima nuclear accident;the effect of exchange rate on fish and fishery product exports and imports between Korea and Japan is not statistically significant unlike the period before the accident. In the second analysis;we have found that Fukushima nuclear accident has had negative impacts on not only the import level but also the marginal effects of both Korea’s expenditure and Japan’s production on Korea’s imports in fish and fishery Products. Research Implications This study is the first economic empirical research in Korea’s trade literature;which investigates the economic effects of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on trade patterns between Korea and Japan in fish and fishery Products. Moreover;PPML technique was used in the Korea’s trade literature dealing with exports and imports in fish and fishery products.

석유제품의 유통방법에 따른 시장경쟁구도에 대한 이론적 연구

정경화(Kyonghwa Jeong),심기은(Kieun Shim) 한국경제연구학회 2010 한국경제연구 Vol.28 No.2

석유제품 유통구조는 석유제품시장의 경쟁구도 및 사회후생에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 국내 주유소는 일반적으로 1개 정유사와 임대차계약을 체결하거나, 정유사로부터 독립적으로 존재하면서 거래되는 물량을 관행적으로 1개 정유사로부터 전량 구매하거나 또는 1개 이상의 정유사(또는 현물시장)로부터 혼합 구매하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 주유소별로 구별되는 6가지 제품유통방법에 따른 국내 석유제품시장의 경쟁 및 사회후생을 게임이론모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과에 의하면, 1개 정유사로부터 전량 구매하는 경우보다 정유사로부터 수직적으로 독립되어 있으면서 주유소가 정유사 또는 현물시장에서 혼합 구매하는 경우에 시장가격이 낮고 사회후생이 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 이것은 주유소가 다양한 석유제품공급업자와 거래함으로써 도매시장의 경쟁이 심화되어 시장가격이 하락하고, 이러한 도매시장의 경쟁여건이 소매시장의 경쟁에 연계되어 시장가격을 하락시키기 때문이다. Vertical relationship between suppliers and buyers can affect market competition and thus social welfare in the petroleum products market. According to contractual relationships with fuel suppliers, buyers(gas stations) are categorized into three types: (1) gas station under lease contract with fuel suppliers, (2) gas station conventionally buying fuel from only one firm without a legally binding contract, and (3) gas station purchasing fuel from multiple suppliers and spot market without contract. This paper considers six different cases of petroleum product distribution structure, and analyzes the competition level in the market and social welfare using the game theory model. The analysis shows that lower market price and increased social welfare are resulted in equilibrium of the market where gas stations buy fuel from multiple firms and spot market without contract. The reason is that the increase in the number of firms in the upstream market intensifies competition and thus lowers the market price, which leads to a lower retail price.

COVID-19가 한국의 의약산업 수출에 미친 영향

김효진(Hyo-Jin Kim),심기은(Kieun Shim),정경화(Kyong-Hwa Jeong) 한국무역연구원 2022 무역연구 Vol.18 No.6

Purpose – This paper empirically analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Korea’s exports in the pharmaceutical industry, and this estimation result is compared with that of manufacturing. Moreover, to distinguish those impacts between OECD and non-OECD countries, we divide 76 countries into two groups, OECD and non-OECD countries, and compare the estimation results. Design/Methodology/Approach – We used the panel data of 76 countries and quarterly periods from the first quarter of 2020 to last quarter of 2021 for estimation. The econometric technique employed in the study is PPML (Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood). Findings – We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has positively influenced Korea’s exports in the pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the impact turns out to be statistically more significant in non-OECD countries than OECD countries. The supplementary finding of our study is that there is no clear evidence on the linkage between COVID-19 and Korea’s exports in the manufacturing sector. Research Implications – Unlike existing papers have focused on showing the negative relationship between COVID-19 and international trade, this paper has showed the positive linkage between them.