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- 저자 : ( Eng Seng Chia ) (검색결과 2 건)
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An Analysis of Population Polices in China
( Eng Seng Chia ),( Yan Jia ),( Chenxi Li ),( Yulu Li ),( Manbo Liao ),( Xiaoqi Zhang ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.4
This paper examines the impact of various population policies in China, in particular, how to increase the fertility rate and reduce the age dependency ratio. The investigation carried out involved the identification of relevant factors, the establishment of causal relationships between factors and the building of a causal loop diagram, and subsequent conversion into a stock and flow diagram for running simulations. Data collected were from newspapers, published reports, and official government websites. The results obtained from the simulations revealed that the newly implemented two-child policy would most likely be ineffective in alleviating the issue of ageing population in China. Sensitivity analysis carried out to identify potential points of intervention revealed two possible measures. Both measures were shown to be effective in increasing the Actual Fertility Rate, and also in slowing down the increase in Aged Dependency Ratio. Hence, it is recommended that the Chinese government introduce alternative measures, such as giving cash bonus to families that give birth to a second child, or implementing policies that reduce the cost of healthcare services, in order to ensure that its population is productive, and continues to be so in the future.
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Sustainable Development of Indonesia`s Agricultural Sector
( Eng Seng Chia ),( Dongyu Li ),( Xutong Ma ),( Jixi Wang ),( Yiting Wang ),( Jiaxu Zhu ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.4
The Indonesian agricultural output has been struggling to provide for the demand of the rising population in recent years owing to the sluggish growth rate in this sector as compared to the overall performance of the economy. While the current slash-and-burn technique widely employed by Indonesian peasants is able to boost the output in the short term, its negative implications on the environment and the constraints in available forest area casts doubts to its sustainability in the long run. As the results from our iThink model simulation has illustrated, the output will cease increasing and decline in about 90 years” time due to the drastic drop in forest coverage. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the affecting factors, three policy amendments are proposed to avert the gloomy perspective, namely increasing funding for Research and Development, curbing burning activities, and actively returning abandoned land to forests. With the effective implementation of the suggested policies, the growth in the agricultural sector will be steered back to a sustainable track, which is further confirmed by the model projection.
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