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Future Changes in Drought Characteristics: Regional Analysis for South Korea under CMIP5 Projections
Rhee, Jinyoung,Cho, Jaepil AMERICAN METEORLOGICAL SOCIETY 2016 Journal of hydrometeorology Vol.17 No.1
<P>The future changes in drought characteristics were examined on a regional scale for South Korea, in northeastern Asia, using 17 bias-corrected projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The frequency of severe or extreme drought, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), with time scales of 1, 3, and 12 months (i.e., SPI1, SPI3, SPI12, SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12), was considered, as well as the average duration based on SPEI1. A multimodel ensemble (MME) was produced using selected models, and future changes were investigated in terms of both drought frequency and the average duration for the entire area and four river basins. The changes in drought frequency largely depend on the selection of a drought index, rather than climate projection scenarios. SPEI3 mostly projected future increases in drought frequency, while SPI3 showed varied projections. SPI12 projected decreases in drought frequency for both scenarios in the study area, while differences between river basins were observed for SPEI12. Increases in the average duration of droughts were projected based on SPEI1, indicating an increase in persistent short-term droughts in the future. The results emphasize the importance of regional- and subregional-scale analysis in northeastern Asia. The findings of the study provide valuable information that can be used for drought-related decision-making, which could not be obtained from studies on a global spatial scale.</P>
Quantitative Comparison of the Spatial Distribution of Radar and Gauge Rainfall Data
YOON, SEONG-SIM,PHUONG, ANH TRAN,BAE, DEG-HYO AMERICAN METEORLOGICAL SOCIETY 2012 Journal of hydrometeorology Vol.13 No.6
<P> The common statement that a rain gauge network usually provides better observation at specific points while weather radar provides more accurate observation of the spatial distribution of rain field over a large area has never been subjected to quantitative evaluation. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the statement by using some statistical criteria. The Monte Carlo simulation experiment, inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation method, and cross-validation technique are used to investigate the relation between the accuracy of the interpolated rainfall and the rain gauge density. The radar reflectivity?rainfall intensity (Z?R) relationship is constructed by the least squares fitting method from observation data of radar and rain gauges. The variation in this relationship and the accuracy of the radar rainfall with rain gauge density are evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation experiment. Three storm events are selected as the case studies. The obtained results show that the accuracy of interpolated and radar rainfall increases nonlinearly with increasing gauge density. The higher correlation coefficient (γ) value of radar-rainfall estimation, compared to gauge interpolation, especially in the convective storm, proves that radar observation provides a more accurate spatial structure of the rain field than gauge observation does. </P>