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Monetary Transmission Channels, Sectoral Output and Augmented VAR Analysis
Rao,Doki Tripati,Singh,Sunny Kumar 한국유통과학회 2019 KODISA ICBE (International Conference on Business Vol.2019 No.-
This paper analyzes monetary policy effect on aggregate as well as sectoral output of the Indian economy for the period 1996Q1:2013Q2. We apply the standard vector autoregression (VAR) followed by impulse response function to evaluate the response of aggregate as well as sectoral output to monetary policy. We also augment the basic VAR by including various monetary transmission channels, such as, credit channel, exchange rate channel, asset price channel and direct interest rate channel and analyze the sector specific importance of each of these channels. The findings suggest that the impact of a monetary policy changes at the sectoral output level is heterogeneous. Sectors such as mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction and trade, hotel, transport and communications seem to decline more sharply than aggregate output in response to a monetary tightening. The channels through which monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy are found to be different for every sector. In most of the cases, multiple channels are responsible for the changes in the aggregate and sectoral output to the monetary policy changes.
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China's Ascent in World Trade and Associated Shift in Its Trade Structure
D Tripati Rao,Ravi Pathak 한국유통과학회 2016 KODISA ICBE (International Conference on Business Vol.2016 No.-
The sustained and rapid expansion of China's trade surplus has been a key development in the world economy. While growing trade surplus of China has been viewed with cynicism borne out of an undervalued yuan and for having being a member of WTO since 2001, many others argue that China's trade surplus reflect changes in China's economic and trade structure and associated shifts in its role within regional and global production chains. In order to address the issue, we analyse: (i) China's growing trade surplus with the rest of the world, USA, Europe, Japan and Rest of Asia, (ii) China's changing trade structure in order to see whether or not China has moved up the value chain?, and finally (iii) what role China's trade policies played in the shift of China's trade structure. We find that, not only China has made significant inroads in the world trade since its admission to WTO, but also a shift in China's trade structure with specialization in high-end technology industries and exports aided by well calibrated FDI policy.
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US-China Tariff War: Anti-Globalisation Wave Blowing in the Wind
D. Tripati RAO,Pravakar SAHOO 한국유통과학회 2018 KODISA ICBE (International Conference on Business Vol.2018 No.-
With the right-wing “populist nationalism” usurping across Western-World, there is a rise in anti-globalisation; mainly led by US-China tariff war. But what we find is that the genesis of anti-globalization movement is not globalisation itself but the failure of productivity led growth in industrial sector, particularly in Europe and failure of re-destructive policies in developed west, particularly in USA. Reviewing the history of tariff war and welfare maxims of trade policy, we argue that the correct approach to address trade imbalances and to domestic redistributive gorals is through multilateral negotiations but not one of resorting to an abrupt and unilateral trade distortionary measures such as tariffs or quotas. While China must address correcting its sustained trade surplus, retaliatory imposition of tariffs by US, the major beneficiary of cheap imports from China, are not the panacea for global trade globalisation juggernaut.
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China’s Ascent in World Trade and Associated Shift in Its Trade Structure
D. Tripati Rao,Ravi Pathak 한국유통과학회 2016 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.3 No.3
The rapid expansion of China’s trade surplus since the mid-eighties and picking up until the onset of 2008-09 global financial crisis has been a key development in the world economy. While growing trade surplus of China has been viewed with cynicism borne out of an undervalued Yuan and for having being a member of WTO since 2001, many others argue that China’s trade surplus reflect changes in China’s economic and trade structure and associated shifts in its role within regional and global production chains. We address this issue by analyzing: (i) China’s growing and changing trade structure as well as changing structure of trade surplus with the rest of the world, USA, Europe, Japan and rest of Asia, (ii) China’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) with the rest of the world, and (iii) how China’s trade policies resulted into a shift in China’s trade structure. We find that, not only China has made significant inroads in the world trade since its admission to WTO, but also there has been a noticeable shift in China’s trade structure with specialization in high-end technology industries wherein China’s exports aided by a well calibrated FDI policy.
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External Determinants of Inflation: The India Experience
Abhishek Kumar ROHIT,D,Tripati RAO 한국유통과학회 2018 KODISA ICBE (International Conference on Business Vol.2018 No.-
This study investigates the role of external factors in determining inflation levels in India from 2000:01 to 2016:12 in a time-varying parameter approach of structural vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Our analysis of time-variations in the impact of foreign determinants of inflation in India is based on a time-varying parameter approach of structural vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This model allows for time-variations in both the coefficients and the variance-covariance matrix of theinnovations. We build five TVP-VAR models for each of the five foreign factors to be investigated. These models contain the same set of domestic macroeconomic variables. The foreign factors enter the system of domestic variables, one by one. The structural identification in this TVP-VAR model has been done in the following order. The foreign factors have been ordered as the most exogenous variables in all the models, owing to the small size of the Indian economy as compared to the global factors. We find oil price, commodity price, US monetary policy and global liquidity to be significant in explaining the inflation level in India. Further, we also find their impact to be time-varying which may be impacted by a host of factors.
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