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Changing Security Landscape of Northeast Asia in Transition
Takahashi Sugio(다카하시 스기오) 한국전략문제연구소 2012 전략연구 Vol.55 No.-
Strategic landscape in Northeast Asia is dramatically changing. In North Korea, after repeated provocations, Kim Jong Il was dead in 2011 and Kim Jong Un succeeded the position of the leader of North Korea. April 2012, while it was failed, North Korea launched long range missile. This event illustrates the fact that North Korea seriously continues to develop long-range ballistic missiles. With anotherconsistent effort to develop nuclear weapons, North Korea causes unpredictable instability in Northeast Asia. And rising China brings about even more unpredictability (although not necessarily instability) in this region. After two-decade rapid economic growth, China overtook Japan as a national GDP scale to be the second largest economy in the world. While Chinese economy is now indispensable for regional and world economic growth, China sometimes take assertive behaviors and such behaviors has raised concern among regional countries, especially countries at South China Sea and East China Sea. On the other hand, since economic interdependence with China has deepened and spread, shaping the future of “win-win” for both China and regional countries is the most important regional strategic challenge. In such radically changing region, both Japan and Republic of Korea (ROK)face common strategic challenge, with some difference in nuance. Both countries share democratic values, market economy, being allies of the U.S., threatened by North Korea, and facing complex problems from the rise of China. Given rapidly changing strategic landscape, Japan and ROKshould deepen security cooperation both in the context of the coordination of two bilateral alliances and bilateral relations between Japan and ROK, to broaden range of choices for both countries. (Not to antagonize or to contain China) To think about such challenge, this paper discusses three issues: Japan’s recent development of security strategy, its attitude toward China discussed in Japanese think tank community, and future of Japan-ROK bilateral and Japan-US-ROK trilateral cooperation.
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