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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Sasaki Michiya (검색결과 4 건)
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Calculation of an Indicator for Early Death Using Atomic Bomb Survivors’ Data
Sasaki Michiya,Fujimichi Yuki,Yoshida Kazuo,Iwasaki Toshiyasu 대한방사선방어학회 2022 방사선방어학회지 Vol.47 No.1
Background: A comprehensive, traceable, and easy-to-understand radiation risk indicator is desired for radiological protection. The early-onset hypothesis could be used for this purpose.Materials and Methods: An indicator for early death (IED) was developed and calculated using the epidemiological dataset from the 14th Report of the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By clarifying the calculation process, IED for all-cause mortality was estimated. In addition, the characteristics of IED for solid cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality as well as those of men and women, and their dependence on age at exposure were investigated for detailed analysis.Results and Discussion: The IED for all-cause mortality was estimated to be approximately 4 years for an acute radiation exposure of 1 Gy regardless of the fitting dose range. The cumulative death rate for all solid cancers also indicated the early-death tendency (approximately 7–10 years at 1 Gy). Although, there is a slight difference in the characteristics of the risk obtained from the LSS study and this study, it is considered that the IED in a unit of years can also be used to show the overall picture of risk due to radiation exposure.Conclusion: We developed and calculated the indicator for early death, IED, for the cumulative mortality rate of all causes of death, all solid cancers, and circulatory diseases. The quantitative values of IED were estimated to be 4 years for all causes of death, 7–10 years for all solid cancers. IED has an advantage for intuitively understanding the meaning of radiation risk since it can be obtained by a simple and traceable method.
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SUMRAY: R and Python Codes for Calculating Cancer Risk Due to Radiation Exposure of a Population
Sasaki Michiya,Furukawa Kyoji,Satoh Daiki,Shimada Kazumasa,Kudo Shin’ichi,Takagi Shunji,Takahara Shogo,Kai Michiaki 대한방사선방어학회 2023 방사선방어학회지 Vol.48 No.2
Background : Quantitative risk assessments should be accompanied by uncertainty analyses of the risk models employed in the calculations . In this study, we aim to develop a computational code named SUMRAY for use in cancer risk projections from radiation exposure taking into ac- count uncertainties . We also aim to make SUMRAY publicly available as a resource for further improvement of risk projection . Materials and Methods : SUMRAY has two versions of code written in R and Python . The risk models used in SUMRAY for all-solid-cancer mortality and incidence were those published in the Life Span Study of a cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki . The confidence intervals associated with the evaluated risks were derived by propagating the statisti- cal uncertainties in the risk model parameter estimates by the Monte Carlo method . JRPR Results and Discussion : SUMRAY was used to calculate the lifetime or time-integrated attrib- utable risks of cancer under an exposure scenario (baseline rates , dose[s] , age[s] at exposure , age at the end of follow-up, sex) specified by the user. The results were compared with those calculated using another well-known web-based tool , Radiation Risk Assessment Tool (Rad- RAT; National Institutes of Health) , and showed a reasonable agreement within the estimated confidential interval . Compared with RadRAT, SUMRAY can be used for a wide range of ap- plications , as it allows the risk projection with arbitrarily specified risk models and/or popula- tion reference data . Conclusion : The reliabilities of SUMRAY with the present risk-model parameters and their variance-covariance matrices were verified by comparing them with those of the other codes . The SUMRAY code is distributed to the public as an open-source code under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license .
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Conclusions and Suggestions on Low-Dose and Low-Dose Rate Radiation Risk Estimation Methodology
Sakai, Kazuo,Yamada, Yutaka,Yoshida, Kazuo,Yoshinaga, Shinji,Sato, Kaoru,Ogata, Hiromitsu,Iwasaki, Toshiyasu,Kudo, Shin'ichi,Asada, Yasuki,Kawaguchi, Isao,Haeno, Hiroshi,Sasaki, Michiya The Korean Association for Radiation Protection 2021 방사선방어학회지 Vol.46 No.1
Background: For radiological protection and control, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) provides the nominal risk coefficients related to radiation exposure, which can be extrapolated using the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk obtained from the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). Materials and Methods: Since it is impossible to directly estimate the radiation risk at doses less than approximately 100 mSv only from epidemiological knowledge and data, support from radiation biology is absolutely imperative, and thus, several national and international bodies have advocated the importance of bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology. Because of the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the exposure of the public to radiation has become a major concern and it was considered that the estimation of radiation risk should be more realistic to cope with the prevailing radiation exposure situation. Results and Discussion: To discuss the issues from wide aspects related to radiological protection, and to realize bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology, we have established a research group to develop low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk estimation methodology, with the permission of the Japan Health Physics Society. Conclusion: The aim of the research group was to clarify the current situation and issues related to the risk estimation of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure from the viewpoints of different research fields, such as epidemiology, biology, modeling, and dosimetry, to identify a future strategy and roadmap to elucidate a more realistic estimation of risk against low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure.
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