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이머징 마켓 진출 전략의 인과관계에 대한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 사고에 의한 접근
정창권 ( Chang Kwon Chung ),이동현 ( Dong Hyun Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2012 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.13 No.3
This study suggests a set of Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) of Causality Mechanism which integrates the matter of characteristics of emerging market and its expansion strategies. In order to make CLD more objective, all causalities are articulated from recent 55 studies (2000~2012) of SSCI Top Journals. This approach is valuable in that it is a first try to draw all the causalities from rigorous literature review regarding emerging market strategy. The 5 CLDs will show and clarify the strategies of how to expand into emerging market for MNCs. In sum, political activity and institutional void is a critical factor related to characteristics of emerging market, and CSV and cultural distance should be considered as a leverage point. For all this study`s contribution to clarify the causality of emerging market strategies with abundant literature review, the study has its limits in integrating and testing CLD.
국제통상에서 KIKO 파생금융상품과 그 영향에 대한 시스템 다이내믹스 시뮬레이션
엄재근 ( Jae Gun Eom ),정창권 ( Chang Kwon Chung ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2014 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.15 No.4
국제통상을 하는 기업은 위험 선호도에 따라 금융시장을 통해 외화자산 혹은 외화부채의 헷징(hedging)을 목적으로 파생금융상품을 쉽게 구매할 수 있다. 파생금융상품 시장은 투자와 헷지의 필요에 따라 급속도로 성장해왔다. 기업은 금융 파생금융상품을 통해 환위험 관리를 하면서 위험을 헷징한다. 기초자산을 헷징할 때는 환노출 완화전략으로 헷징이 효과적일 수 있다. 하지만 파생상품을 통한 이익에 대한 욕심과 예상치 못한 환율 변동이 발생할 때 기업에 상당한 위험을 초래할 수도 있다. 본 논문은 환위 험을 다루는 파생상품에 내재된 구조적인 위험을 시스템다이내믹스 관점에서 분석하고 있다. 대표적인 파생금융상품인 KIKO는 구조적인 위험 요인 때문에 금융위기에 크나 큰 손실을 끼쳤다. 본 논문에서는 KIKO의 구조적 위험 요인을 모델링하고 실제 사례를 통해 검증하여 파생금융상품의 시스템 구조를 파악하고 내재되어 있는 구조적 위험을 밝혔다. Derivatives can be easily bought by those companies that need to hedge foreign currency debt or foreign currency assets through the financial market, considering their exchange rate exposure from international trade. The derivatives market has been growing rapidly due to the needs for investment and hedging. To manage foreign exchange risk, companies hedge risks through financial derivatives. According to our study, hedging is an effective way to mitigate the impact of exposure to exchange risk, as long as companies are only hedging underlying assets. Yet, covetous attitude toward the profit from derivatives and unexpected changes in exchange rate can cause problems for companies. This study analyzed the structural risks of derivatives with analysis of system dynamics. In particular, many companies suffered substantial loss due to KIKO during the economic crisis. We explained the problem therein through dynamic analysis. In addition, we revealed the structural problem that could cause a sudden spike in losses through simulations.
전략적 네트워크에서 사회적 자본과 성과의 인과 관계에 관한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 사고를 통한 분석
김동석 ( Dong Seok Kim ),정창권 ( Chang Kwon Chung ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.1
The purpose of this paper is to explore causal relationship between social capital and firm``s performance using systems thinking analysis. In strategic networks, the relationship between the members is an important factor affecting the performance. For this reason, we study relationship between social capital and firm``s performance on strategic networks. The results show: Firstly, as presented in the existing research, trust and performance are positive relationship(+) and verify the entire system on strategic networks. Secondly, due to exclusiveness and embeddedness of social capital, there is nonlinear relationship between social capital and the firm``s performance. Thirdly, the key factor of firm’s performance on strategic networks verify relationship dependency and trust.
환노출과 환노출 완화 전략의 인과관계에 관한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 사고에 의한 접근
엄재근 ( Jae Gun Eom ),정창권 ( Chang Kwon Chung ),설원식 ( Won Sik Sul ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2014 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.15 No.2
The purpose of this study is to analyze Foreign Exchange (FX) exposure and FX hedge strategy based on the systems thinking perspective using causal loop diagrams. FX exposure has been a critical issue on a business management. Many studies in Korea have researches on variables which make effects to the company value. This study displays causal loop diagrams (CLDs) on these issues. In order to make CLD more objective, most causalities are articulated from recent 72 studies (1998~2013) of domestic top journals. This approach is valuable in that it is the first try to draw all the causalities from various literature review regarding FX exposure and FX hedge strategy. This study is expected to make a useful and basic material to research the financial issues of corporate, as the first research to dynamically understand FX exposure and FX hedge strategy.