카타르의 금융정책 분석

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul),김중관(Kim, Joong-Kwan) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2012 중동문제연구 Vol.11 No.4

Qatar is using its fiscal space, generated from an increase in hydrocarbon production and high prices, to implement a large public spending program to maintain strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector in the medium term and improving living standards. Headline inflation remains subdued, but inflation risks have risen somewhat due to a permanent increase in public sector wages, which underscores the need for fiscal policy to monitor aggregate demand and the central bank to manage liquidity. The banking sector remains profitable and strong with a capital adequacy ratio of 22.3 percent, average return on assets of 2.7 percent, and non-performing loans ratio of 2.3 percent at end-June 2011. The non-financial corporations are also in an expansionary phase–profits are at pre-crisis levels, cash is abundant, default rates are low, and financing conditions remain easy. The central bank should monitor its growth and stand ready to use macro prudential instruments to prevent the building up of excessive risks. Closing regulatory gaps in the financial system and continuing with efforts to develop the domestic bond market are needed to further strengthen financial stability while developing the financial system. Further improvements in statistics will be essential, which will also require greater coordination between sectors. A cap on remunerated deposits of QCB and successive reduction in policy deposit rates proved successful in driving out short-term arbitrage funds that were intermediated through the banking system. Issuance of government bonds and sukuk coinciding with the imposition of the cap on central bank deposits, and issuance of treasury bills in lieu of central bank certificates of deposit facilitated the mopping up of structural liquidity from the banking system over a longer period, while shifting the cost from the central bank’s balance sheet to the government.

Post-ArabSpring 시기 중동 패권분쟁과 평화: 패권안정론에 대한 비판적 시각

정상률 ( Jung Sang-ryul ) 한국외국어대학교 중동연구소 2019 중동연구 Vol.38 No.1

In the 1970s when the hegemony of the US was declining considerably, some neo-realist scholars emphasized the necessity of maintaining the supremacy of the United States, and they created the hegemonic stability theory. Therefore, the hegemonic stability theory is an expression of Americanism, a kind of American centrism. However, structuralist scholars and liberal scholars have criticized the hegemonic stability theory. The hegemonic stability theory has been criticized because of the ambiguity of the ‘hegemony’ concept, the problems of the theoretical composition of this theory, ideological bias, and neglecting the connectivity between domestic class-social structure-state within each nation-state and international relations. This article is based on the question of whether the hegemonic stability theory that ‘the existence of hegemon stabilizes the system’ properly explains the instability factors in the Middle East area in the era of Post-ArabSpring. This paper also emphasizes that the competition of hegemony of the three major actors in the Middle East - the United States, which is recognized as a hegemonic state in the Middle East, Shiite central state, Iran which is judged to seeks hegemony in the Middle East, and the Sunni group IS, which has pursued supremacy beyond the Middle East - is an instability factor of the Middle East international order.

이라크 부족주의 연구 - 사담 시대 정치 엘리트와 신부족주의 관계를 중심으로 : 이라크 부족주의 연구

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2006 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.27 No.1

Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time. But the role of tribe and tribalism was being declining in the process of nation-state building. As soon as it came to power in July 1968, the Bath Party announced in its Communique No.1 its rejection of "tribalism." ""We are against religious sectarianism, racism, and tribalism."" In later years, too, in official party ideology tribal shaikhs and tribalism have been regarded as the epitome of backwardness and social reaction. This policy to the tribalism has been continued in Saddam era since 1987. But anti-tribalism policy was changed in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s. The reason was that because Saddam"s regime faced in crisis of legitimacy not only in Arab society but also from outside world. Especially there was shii Intifada, anti-Saddam regime movement in the south Iraq in 1991. Saddam"s tribalism policy was centered on his tribe, the Albu Nasir tribe and some major tribes, the Dulaym tribal confederation, the Shammar tribal confederation, the al-Juburi tribal confederation, the Ubaydis tribal confederation, the Azza tribal confederation, the Takrit tribal confederation. Albu Nasir tribe is composed of core of power and other major tribes the first one of several circles of power. What is the meaning of study of tribalism? First, we have to consider tribe as the political actor in the Middle East, especially in Iraq because tribe is the entity in political process of Iraq. Second, We can ask following; what"s the status of tribe in state-society relations in Iraq? Is the tribe a part of state or a part of society in historical changing era? In Saddam era after 1990, there is the trend of statization of tribe or tribalization of state in Iraq. Third, there is dispute about "the character of state" of Iraq. Is the state of Iraq tribal state, or capitalist state(or state in capitalist society), or bureaucratic authoritative state, or Islamic state, rentier state? These dispute is very important issue in social science, especially political science. Fourth, we have to consider about the trend of political, social, economic change after 2003 Iraq war as social scientist. The study of every social scientist of Middle East, therefore, will be centered on the tribe or tribalism.

이라크 종교엘리트와 부족주의 관계 연구 - 사담시대 정치시아주의를 중심으로

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2007 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.28 No.1

  Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time.<BR>  Political Shi"ism in Iraq was a movement group to resist Baath regime but not anti-Arab nationalist. Because Arab political Shi"ists were alienated from Baath regime in political, economic, social area. Arab political Shi"ists have double identity, Arabs-Iraqi-Shi"ists. The leaders of political Shi"ism were not born in a specific family and tribe, but grown in religious environment of specific family. They have not given emphasis tribal value, but religious value and democratic participation in decision making process.<BR>  After Iraq nation-state building, especially in the Saddam regime era, al-Sadr family and al-Hakim family have been the leader"s families in political Shi"ism. So I think that there is some relation between religious elite and tribe. But these Shi"a religious elites didn"t emphasize tribal value. I think, therefore, that there is Iraqi Shi"a religious elite family or tribe, but there is no meaning relation between religious elite and tribalism.

이라크 군부엘리트와 부족주의 관계 연구 : 사담시대의 군부엘리트의 부족 기반을 중심으로

정상률 ( Sang Ryul Jung ) 韓國中東學會 2009 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.29 No.3

Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time. Before Saddam regime, Iraqi military elite has become an axis of power elite because of frequent military coup and war. In fact, as soon as it came to power in July 1968, the Bath Party announced its rejection of `tribalism` in its Communique No.1. "We are against religious sectarianism, racism, and tribalism." In later years, tribal shaikhs and tribalism have been regarded as the epitome of backwardness and social reaction in official party ideology. This policy to the tribalism has been continued in Saddam era since 1987. But anti-tribalism policy was changed in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s. The reason was that because Saddam`s regime faced in crisis of legitimacy not only in Arab society but also from outside world. Saddam has recruited members of his tribal and clan, Albu Nasir tribal and Beijat clan, as major member of military and information services. He has made Iraq tribal state through the `state-ization` of the tribe and the tribalization of the state, and through the militarization of his tribe and tribalization of military. In post-Saddam era, too, tribalism will be the major factor and variable in Iraqi political, social change.

중동 근대 국민국가 건설

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2014 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.34 No.4

In a long Islamic history, Islam and tribalism has been mixed and coexisted through a process of acceptance and exclusion of the several identities. Modern Middle Eastern nation state that has been built by transplantation of Western forms of nation state - territorial state or sovereign state – by force reached today through a process of acceptance and exclusion each other. In this regard, I will analyze about the process of nation state building and identity fusion phenomenon of the Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Libya in this article. There are many overseas research books concerning "The Middle Eastern modern nation-states building" but are few research books on this subject in Korea. These research books are ones such as general description concerning historical aspects, culture, politics and the parliamentary system, the economy, national ideology, conflict and terrorism. In this paper, I analyzed the process of nation-state building, and that since the nation state building, the various identities mixed each other and we can see identity fusion phenomenon in Middle Eastern states today. Analysing method in this article is narrative method, and analysing states are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya.

알-마와르디의 ｢알-아흐캄｣에 나타난 칼리파제론 연구

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2014 중동문제연구 Vol.13 No.4

This paper reviews Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya that Māwardī wrote about the Imamate in the 11th century. Most of the political Islam groups, including IS (Islamic State), have attempted to build a Caliphate(Imamate), that is, an Islamic state. We need to understand what a Caliphate (Imamate) is, that Islamic political philosophers and political Islamic groups have desired to set up for a long time. Māwardī wrote Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya in the 11th century when the Abbasid Caliphs’political and religious authority was completely lost. He wanted to restore an Imamate political and religious system. He explains a method of succession in which an Imam can be appointed by his predecessor or be elected by the election council composed of 1 - 6 electors. Māwardī adduced several methods of appointment and election in Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya. The Imamate that Mawardi finally proposed was a kind of‘Divine Right of Imamate,’ and it was a theocracy. I think that IS’s Caliphate will be an Islamic theocracy. This means that the state characteristic of IS’s Caliphate is Islamic, in other words, an Islamization of the state.

DABIQ에 나타난 IS의 칼리파제론 연구

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul),이종화(Lee, Jong-Wha) 한국중동학회 2015 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.35 No.3

Ultimate goal of Islamic State(IS), which is based on Iraq-Sham/Lebant and is expanding its control area, is to establish Khilafah, in other words Islamic State. IS separate the world into Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb, and then is pursuing expansion of Dar al-Islam. IS has designed its road map to accomplish this goal as following; hijrah(emigration) →Jamaah(congregation) →destabilization taghut(idolatry) → tamkin(consolidation) → Khilafah(Caliphate). This study is aimed at a critical review on Khilafah(Califate), Islamic state which IS want to establish ultimately through analysis of digital journals for public relations, DABIQ ISSUE series(DABIQ ISSUE NO.1~DABIQ ISSUE NO.6). IS began to publish DABIQ ISSUE series on July, 2014, and on January, 2015, DABIQ ISSUE NO.6 was published. Khilafah is the same kind of Islamic theocracy that several Islamic philosophers or Islamic thinkers deemed a ideal community and many political Islamic organizations longed for establishment. I am sure that, in the basis of this analysis, we can understand what IS’s concluding goal is and what its strategy to establish Khilafah is, and that we can respond to IS’s action.

팔레스타인 국가수립 추진에 대한 오바마 정부의 외교정책 분석

정상률 ( Sang Ryul Jung ) 한국중동학회 2013 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.33 No.3

마우두디(Abul A’ala Maududi)의 정치경제 사상

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2012 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.33 No.1

Abul A’ala Maududi was a Pakistani journalist, theologian, Muslim revivalist leader and political philosopher, and a controversial 20th century Islamist thinker. He was also a political figure in Pakistan and was the first recipient of King Faisal International Award for his services 1979. He was also the founder of Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamic revivalist party and revolutionary organization. He dreamed Islamization of Pakistan society and made an effort to construct Islamic state as an ideal type in Pakistan. He had the transhistorical view of the Islamic state as what Bert de Vries said; ① Every act in the Islamic state is a religious act. This is something that the Prophet Muhammad believed to be the case. ② The state of Medina was a perfect theocracy. ③ In Islamic societies, there is no distinction between the spiritual and political realms, for God express His will directly and clearly to humankind through the body politic. A harmony between humankind and state is therefore achieved. ④ The Qur’an is the literal word of God, communicated through the Prophet Muhammad. It is not simply a ‘holy book’, but a comprehensive guide to every aspect of the Muslim life. ⑤ As the Islamic state is governed by divine law, its full citizens must, by implication, be Muslim. Looking back at the first Islamic state, the ummah consisted of those who had submitted to the will of God. ⑥ The following are characteristic theocratic institutions of the Islamic state: ⅰ. The Caliphate. Prophethood ended with Muhammad, but the role of political leader of the state was passed on in the form of the Caliph; the‘successor’ of prophet of God. The first four Caliphs are considered ‘rightly guided’(rashidun), because they lived concurrently with the Prophet and knew him personally. ⅱ. The ulama. Although it is often stated that there is no ‘priesthood’ in Islam, the ulama-as experts in the Islamic sciences-have often in the past wielded considerable authority. As interpreters of God’s will, they are often seen as the guardians of theocracy and a check against the abuse of power by the political authorities. Maududi’s Islamic reform thought was a kind of an Islamic campaign for enlightenment, and movement of anti foreign influence, anti secularization, Islamic state building. He thought that ideal, perfect Islamic state was such Islamic theocracy as balance of power by separation of power, as guaranteed several right of freedom but not be against divine law politically. And he thought also that ideal, perfect Islamic state was such Islamic capitalism as permission of private ownership but thorough prohibition of haram. I think that theocratic democracy combined Islam and democracy must be a goal that Islam societies today aims for.