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안국신(Kookshin Ahn) 한국경제발전학회 2008 經濟發展硏究 Vol.14 No.1
본 논문은 신고전파적 성장모형에 토지를 도입한 조동철(2000)과 주택까지 도입한 확장모형을 통해 한 나라 지가와 주택가격의 동향에 관한 장기적인 시사점을 탐구한다. 장기에 토지의 실질가격증가율은 (실질)경제성장률과 같고, 주택의 실질가격증가율은 경제성장률에서 주택스톡의 증가율을 뺀 것과 같게 된다는 것이 모형의 시사점이다. 이 모형을 이용하여 1980년대 이래 우리나라 부동산가격의 동향을 고찰할 때 경제 전체로 일반적인 통념과는 달리 지가와 주택가격의 상승률이 지나치게 높다고 평가할 수 없다. 서울 아파트, 특히 강남아파트에 국한하여 보면 2000년대 들어 과도하게 상승한 것으로 평가된다. 그러나 서울 아파트 가격에 거품이 있다고 단정할 수는 없다. This paper investigates the long-run implication of real estate prices by reviewing and extending Dongchul Cho(2000), which is a variant of neoclassical growth model with land. According to these models, in the long run, the increase rate of real land price is equal to the growth rate of the economy, and that of real house price is less than the growth rate of the economy by the increase rate of the number of houses. Using these theoretic models this paper examines whether land and house prices in Korea have bubbles. It argues that there is no bubble in overall real estate prices. As for apartments located in Seoul metropolitan area, their prices rose "too high" since 2001, but one can not claim that there is a bubble in Seoul apartment prices.
한국 경제 , 동태적으로 효율적인가 ( 경제학문헌연보 주제분류 : E0 )
안국신,김형진 ( Kook Shin Ahn,Hyung Jin Kim ) 한국경제학회 1998 經濟學硏究 Vol.46 No.2
Abel · Mankiw · Summers · Zeckhauser(1989)는 한 나라 경제가 동태적으로 효율적인 가의 여부를 가려 주는 새롭고 실용적인 기준을 제시했다. 한 나라의 기업 전체가 자본스톡면에서 창출하는 소득(총자본소득)이 투입되는 비용(총투자)보다 항상 크면 동태적으로 효율적이고 항상 작으면 동태적으로 비효율적이라는 것이다. 이 AMSZ기준에 따르면 서유럽 선진국은 동태적으로 효율적이라고 알려져 있다. 본 논문은 AMSZ기준을 이용하여 한국 경제가 동태적 (비)효율성의 충분조건을 만족시키지 못하며 1980년대 말부터 총자본소득보다 총투자가 더 커 과잉 자본축적의 경향을 띠고 있음을 보인다. 이는 제 1, 2차 석유파동기를 제외하고 볼 때 동태적으로 효율적인 대만과 대조적이다.
安國臣,姜善代 중앙대학교 경제연구소 1990 經濟論文集 Vol.- No.4
Size distribution of income in Korea has been explained by two well-known "stylized facts." Firstly, size distribution of income in Korea is relatively equitable by international standards. Along with Taiwan, Korea is one of only a few developing countries whose distribution patterrn is known to be comparable to that of advanced countries such as the United States, France, and Italy. Secondly, Kuznets's U-shaped hypothesis can be applied to korea as its size distribution of income makes a downturn curve during the 1970s and it makes a upturn curve in the 1980s. The basic purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the "stylized facts" about the size distribution of income in Korea are only hopeful estimates, distorting the real income distribution situation in Korea. It is shown that the size distribution of income is not as equitable as claims made by the "stylized facts" and that the size distribution of income has not improved but deteriorated in the 1980s, vitiating the Kuznets's hypothesis. The organization of this paper is as follows. In section Ⅱ, the data processing and estimation method are presented. In section Ⅲ, estimation of the size distribution of income in Korea for the period of 1970-1988 is given and compared with that of privious studies. In section Ⅳ, possible causes affecting the size distribution of income in Korea are analyzed. Concluding comments are in section Ⅴ.
安國臣 중앙대학교 경제연구소 1991 經濟論文集 Vol.- No.5
Entering 1990s Korean economy is plagued internally by price instability and distribution conflict and externally by growing balance of payments deficit since 1960s. This paper argues that these troubles are inevitalbe consequences of the growth-centered macroeconomic policy. The growth-oriented macroeconomic policy has been revived after a short-lived balanced growth strategy in the Sixth Republic. It is argued that, if the current growth-centered strategy is continued, medium-and long-term prospects of Korean economy will not be bright despite relatively high economic growth because the accompanying wage-price spiral, high interest rate, and land price hike will deepen distribution conflict under inter-sectoral unbalanced growth and worsen balance of payments deficits. A political economy model incorporating class conflict is shown to suggest that price stability-and balance-oriented macroeconomic policy is Pareto improving and conducive to long-term stable economic growth with class harmony. Details of stability-and balance-oriented policy instruments are discussed.