South Korean public opinion on foreign policy : a hierarchical model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The 2002 Presidential Election brought about debates over the seemingly sudden divisions among South Korean people. Considering that South Korea has experienced rapid economic growth and political development in several decades, achieving what others have achieved over several centuries, it should not be a surprise that there are many divergent groups with different postures on policy issues. On the other hand, South Korean government seems to rely more and more on public opinion. However, it is not clear as to whether public opinion can be a sound basis for such policy decisions. Therefore, this paper seeks to test the hierarchical structure of South Korean public opinion on foreign policy. To prove the existence of a hierarchical structure, two hypotheses are tested. Hypothesis 1 is that 'Foreign policy attitude is constrained by core value (ideological position) and socio-economic variables (educational level, income level, gender, age, geography).' Hypothesis 2 is that 'Foreign policy attitude and issue-based (short-term) perceptions constrain issue-based (short-term) policy preference.'A survey of 1000 randomly selected respondents was conducted on August 2003. The survey results showed that foreign policy attitude is constrained by more abstract values. But the values that constrain the foreign policy attitude are not core values but rather socio-economic variables. Therefore, Hypothesis 1 is modified as 'Foreign policy attitude is constrained by socio-economic variables.' Also, the foreign policy attitude exerted influence over policy preference. This result approves Hypothesis 2 as it is. The hierarchical structure of foreign policy attitude provides important analytical yardsticks for future efforts in interpreting and predicting mass reactions to foreign-policy events. It is better and easier to examine general orientations than to focus on the opinions to specific issues. Consequently, it provides policy-makers guidelines on how to persuade the public and gain support for their policies. Instead of hopping this way and that way trying to keep up with public opinion on specific issues, they can follow the foreign policy attitude to estimate how the public opinion will shape itself. In addition, by looking at what factors influence foreign policy attitude to be distributed and how this foreign policy attitude influence one''s preference on specific issue, they will know who to ask for support and how to persuade them.