Spatio-temporal analysis of land use transitions and forest fragmentation patterns in the eastern region of ghana using remote sensing and landscape metrics（2003-2023)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Ghana's Eastern Region, one of the country's most ecologically significant forest zones, has undergone accelerating landscape transformation over the past two decades. The region is currently under unprecedented pressure from agricultural expansion, illegal small-scale mining, urbanisation, and unsustainable logging activities. Despite significant policy interventionsincluding the Forest and Wildlife Policy of Ghana （2012）, the National REDD+ Strategy （2016）, and the Nationally Determined Contributions （NDCs） under the Paris Agreementsystematic and spatially explicit data on long-term land use change and structural forest degradation remain insufficient to guide effective conservation planning.
This study conducts a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of land use/land cover （LULC） change and forest fragmentation dynamics in Ghana's Eastern Region over a 20-year period （2003–2023）. Multi-temporal satellite imagery from Landsat and Sentinel-2 is utilised in conjunction with a Random Forest-based supervised classification approach implemented in Google Earth Engine. A comprehensive range of landscape metrics derived from FRAGSTATS v4.6 is applied to quantify fragmentation dynamics. Land use transition matrices and intensity analysis are employed to compare and evaluate changes across five temporal phases （2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023）. Furthermore, fragmentation indicesincluding patch density, edge density, aggregation index, cohesion, Shannon's diversity index, and Euclidean nearest-neighbour distanceare calculated, and graph theory is applied via Conefor 2.6 to assess forest connectivity patterns.
Key findings reveal that forest cover declined by 50.9% over the study periodfrom 11,245 km² in 2003 to 5,524 km² in 2023while Mining/Industrial land expanded by over 1,022%, from 154 km² to 1,728 km², reflecting the dramatic impact of illegal artisanal gold mining （galamsey）. Farmland expanded by 51.0%, becoming the most extensive land cover class in the region by 2023. Forest fragmentation metrics indicate progressive structural deterioration: the number of forest patches increased by 49% （3,814 to 5,682）, while median patch size declined from 142 ha to just 24 haa near-sixfold reduction. Landscape-scale forest blocks exceeding 10,000 ha declined from 23 to just 2 over the study period, with severe implications for biodiversity, carbon storage, and watershed integrity.
The study is expected to provide critical insights into forest fragmentation hotspots and land use transition pathways, thereby contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals （SDG 13: Climate Action and SDG 15: Life on Land）, as well as supporting Ghana's Land Use and Spatial Planning Act （Act 925, 2016） and the implementation of REDD+ reporting frameworks.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

가나 동부 지역의 산림은 서아프리카 기니 산림대의 잔존 지역 중 생물다양성과 생태적 중요성이 매우 높은 지역에 속하지만, 현재 농업 확장, 불법 소규모 채굴, 도시화, 지속 불가능한 벌목 활동으로 인해 전례 없는 압력을 받고 있다. 또한 가나 산림 및 야생동물 정책（2012）, 국가 REDD+ 전략（2016）, 파리협정에 따른 국가결정기여（NDCs） 등 지난 10여 년간의 정책적 개입에도 불구하고, 장기적인 토지 이용 변화와 산림 구조적 훼손에 대한 체계적이고 공간적으로 명확한 자료는 충분히 제시되지 못하고 있다.
본 연구는 Landsat 및 Sentinel-2 다중 시기 위성영상과 Random Forest 기반 감독분류 기법, 그리고 FRAGSTATS를 활용한 다양한 경관 지수를 적용하여, 2003년부터 2023년까지 20년간 가나 동부 지역의 토지 이용/피복（LULC） 변화와 산림 파편화의 동태를 정밀하게 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 토지 이용 전환 행렬과 변화 강도 지수를 산출하여 다섯 시기의 변화 양상을 비교·분석한다. 또한 패치 밀도, 경계 밀도, 집적 지수, 결속도, Shannon 다양도 지수, 유클리드 최근접 거리 등의 파편화 지수를 산출하고, 그래프 이론을 활용하여 산림의 연결성과 단절성을 평가한다.
본 연구는 산림 파편화 집중 지역과 토지 이용 변화 경로에 대한 중요한 통찰을 제공함으로써, 지속가능발전목표（SDGs） 13번（기후변화 대응）과 15번（육상생태계 보호）, 가나 국토이용 및 공간계획법（법률 제925호, 2016）, 그리고 REDD+ 보고 체계 이행에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER ONE 1
• INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background and Global Significance of Tropical Forests 1
• 1.2 Forest Loss and Degradation in Ghana: National Context 2
• 1.3 The Eastern Region as a Focus Area 3
• 1.4 Statement of the Problem 4
• 1.5 Aim of the Study 4
• 1.6 Specific Objectives 5
• 1.7 Research Questions 5
• 1.8 Significance of the Study 6
• 1.9 Scope and Limitations of the Study 7
• 1.10 Operational Definitions 8
• 1.11 Organisation of the Thesis 9
• CHAPTER TWO 11
• LITERATURE REVIEW 11
• 2.1 Introduction 11
• 2.2 Theoretical Framework 11
• 2.3 Land Use/Land Cover Change in Ghana and West Africa 13
• 2.4 Remote Sensing Methodologies for LULC Classification 15
• 2.5 Landscape Metrics and Forest Fragmentation in African Contexts 16
• 2.6 Forest Connectivity Analysis 17
• 2.7 Forest Governance and Policy Literature 18
• 2.8 Research Gap 19
• 2.9 Conceptual Framework 20
• 2.10 Chapter Summary 21
• CHAPTER THREE 22
• RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22
• 3.1 Introduction 22
• 3.2 Research Design and Epistemological Positioning 22
• 3.3 Study Area 23
• 3.4 Data Sources 23
• 3.5 Image Pre-processing 24
• 3.6 LULC Classification Scheme and Sampling Strategy 24
• 3.7 Accuracy Assessment and Quality Assurance 26
• 3.8 Change Detection and Transition Analysis 26
• 3.9 Landscape Fragmentation Analysis 27
• 3.10 Forest Connectivity Analysis 28
• 3.11 Statistical and Sensitivity Analysis 28
• 3.12 Software, Tools, and Replicability 29
• 3.13 Ethical Considerations 29
• 3.14 Chapter Summary 30
• CHAPTER FOUR 31
• RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 31
• 4.1 Introduction 31
• 4.2 Land Use and Land Cover Change (2003–2023) 32
• 4.3 Change Detection Analysis (2003–2023) 35
• 4.4 Forest Fragmentation Analysis 37
• 4.5 Classification Accuracy Assessment 38
• 4.6 Chapter Summary 39
• CHAPTER FIVE 40
• DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40
• 5.1 Introduction 40
• 5.2 Discussion of Key Findings 40
• 5.3 Implications for Policy and Practice 43
• 5.4 Limitations and Measures Taken to Address Them 45
• 5.5 Conclusions 45
• 5.6 Recommendations 46
• 5.7 Chapter Summary 48
• REFERENCES 49