External Powers and Vietnam? China Relations （2010-2025） : The Island Dispute and BRI Cooperation Through Security, Economic, and Legal Lenses = 외부세력과 베트남-중국관계 （2010-2025）: 안보, 경제, 법적 관점을 통한 도서 분쟁과 일대일로 협력 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines how external powers influence Vietnam’s relations with China between 2010 and 2025, focusing on two parallel spheres: the South China Sea dispute and cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative （BRI）. Existing approaches often explain small-state behaviour through broad strategies such as balancing or hedging. This study argues that such explanations are insufficient because they overlook how the third-party influence operates differently across domains. To bridge this gap, the thesis develops a two-axis, three-lens framework that distinguishes between dispute and cooperation dynamics and analyzes them through security, economic, and legal dimensions. Using a qualitative research design combining structured-focused comparison and process tracing, the study examines six mechanism-rich cases involving key external actors, including the United States, Japan, the European Union, and China. The findings suggest that external powers do not fundamentally alter the structural disparity between Vietnam and China. Instead, they affect how Vietnam manages that imbalance. In the dispute realm, external support enhances Vietnam’s ability to sustain its position through improved maritime capacity, economic diversification, and legal legitimacy. In the cooperation, external actors expand Vietnam’s strategic options by providing alternative financing models, regulatory standards, and institutional frameworks, enabling more selective and controlled engagement with China. The study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that Vietnam’s behaviour is not best understood as a single strategy, but as an adaptive response across domains. It also reveals that external influence operates through specific mechanisms rather than wide structural shifts. These key insights offer a more nuanced framework for analyzing small-state behaviour in hierarchical relationships and highlight the importance of domain-specific pathways in contemporary international politics.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. Introduction 1
• 1. Plan of the thesis 3
• II. Theoretical Framework 6
• 1. Realism in International Relations 7
• 2. Offensive realism and its applications 8
• 3. Strategy of Denial 10
• 4. Hedging Strategy 13
• 5. Origin and structure of the Two-axis – Three-lenses model 16
• 6. Justification of the Two-Axis –Three-Lenses Model 19
• III. Methods and Research Design 24
• 1. Research Approach 25
• 2. Hypothesis and Case Selection 27
• 3. Sources and Data Collection 30
• IV. The Dispute Axis 33
• 1. Security Lens - The United States and Vietnam’s Enhanced Capacity to Resist Coercion in the South China Sea 33
• 2. Economic Lens: Japan and the Economic Foundations of Vietnam’s Maritime Resilience 39
• 3. Legal–Institutional Lens: External Normative Support and Vietnam’s Expanding Legal Space in the South China Sea 42
• V. The Cooperation Axis 48
• 1. Security Lens: Managing Risks and Building Controlled Cooperation in Vietnam-China Relations 48
• 2. Economic Lens: BRI Engagement and Vietnam’s Strategy of Selective Economic Balancing 54
• 3. Legal Lens: Contractual Governance, External Standards, and Vietnam’s Conditional Engagement with China 58
• VI. Comparative Synthesis and Policy Implication 64
• 1. Cross-Lens Comparison （ Dispute vs. Cooperation ）: Security, Economic, and Legal Dimensions 64
• 2. Mechanisms and Causal Patterns 65
• 3. Implications for Vietnam’s Strategy and Policy Recommendations 66
• VII. Conclusion 68
• References 71
• 국문초록 74