코로나19 충격과 소비 동학 : 고빈도 신용카드 데이터를 중심으로 = COVID-19 Shocks and Consumption Dynamics in South Korea: Evidence from High-Frequency Credit Card Data

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines whether changes in consumer spending during the COVID-19 pandemic were more closely associated with local infection risk or with the stringency of government containment policies. Using daily credit card spending data for 218 local districts in Korea from January 5, 2020, to August 31, 2022, this study estimates the relationship between local COVID-19 cases, government policy stringency, and online and offline credit card spending. The empirical analysis employs OLS regressions with region and month fixed effects and further conducts full-period, year-by-year, and province-level subsample analyses.
The results show that, over the full sample period, local COVID-19 cases are positively associated with online spending but negatively associated with offline spending. This finding suggests that the spread of COVID-19 was related not only to a contraction in face-to-face consumption but also to a shift toward online consumption channels. The year-by-year results indicate that the negative association between COVID-19 cases and offline spending was strongest in 2020 and weakened in 2021 and 2022. In contrast, policy stringency is negatively associated with both online and offline spending over the full period and in 2022. Province-level analyses reveal substantial regional heterogeneity, indicating that the relationship between COVID-19-related variables and consumption varies across local consumption structures and spatial characteristics.
This study shows that the consumption effects of COVID-19 cannot be understood as a simple decline in aggregate spending. Rather, they reflect a dynamic interaction among infection risk, government policy stringency, online–offline channel substitution, temporal adaptation, and regional heterogeneity. The findings suggest that future pandemic responses should jointly consider infection-risk management, consumer confidence, differentiated support for online and offline consumption channels, and region-specific policy design.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제2장 선행연구 6
• 제3장 자료 소개 및 분석 방법 10
• 제1절 자료 소개 10
• 1. 신용카드 데이터 10
• 2. COVID-19 확진자 수 및 정책 엄격성 지수 14
• 제2절 요약 통계 16
• 제3절 분석방법 21
• 1. 신용카드 소비 분석모형 21
• 2. 시도별 분석 23
• 3. 연도별 분석 25
• 제4장 결과 26
• 제1절 전체 소비 분석 26
• 제2절 시도별 소비 분석 33
• 제5장 결론 49
• 참고문헌 54
• 부록 57