Research on the Policy Evolution and Agenda Setting of Higher Education Continuing Education in China : Analysis Based on Kingdon's Multi-source Model （1949-2025）

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Against the backdrop of China's strategic transformation from leveraging its demo graphic advantages to prioritizing talent quality, and from being a major education syst em to becoming an education powerhouse, the institutional status and functional essenc e of higher education continuing education are undergoing profound reshaping. As a c rucial institutional bridge connecting the regular higher education system with the lifel ong learning system, higher education continuing education not only plays a vital role in enhancing the human capital of working professionals and alleviating disparities in educational opportunities, but also assumes an increasingly prominent strategic signific ance in serving industrial structure upgrading, advancing the construction of a learning society, and supporting the nation's high-quality development. Since the founding of New China in 1949, China's policies on higher education continuing education have u ndergone a complex evolution—from political mobilization tools to economic incentive mechanisms, and ultimately to comprehensive governance initiatives—with their polic y agendas reflecting distinct contemporary characteristics and institutional features. However, based on existing research, academic attention in this field remains pri marily focused on organizing policy content, evaluating institutional effects, or summar izing phased experiences. Key issues such as how policy agendas are formed, how dif ferent policy elements achieve dynamic coupling, and the adaptation mechanisms of W estern policy process theories within the China context still lack systematic, longitudin al, and mechanism-oriented explanations. Particularly under the practical pressures face d by China's higher education continuing education system—long-standing skepticism r egarding its ＂degree factory＂ nature, uneven educational quality, and fluctuating social recognition—mere textual descriptions of policies are insufficient to reveal their underl ying evolutionary logic. In light of this, this paper takes the evolution of China's high er education continuing education policies as its research subject, employs policy agen da-setting as the analytical framework, introduces Kingdon's multi-source model with c ontextual adjustments, and aims to construct a systematic analytical framework from a policy process perspective that can explain the mechanisms of China's educational pol icy evolution. In terms of theoretical construction, the study first systematically defines core con cepts such as higher education continuing education, policy agenda-setting, and Kingdo n's multi-source model, and employs a combination of bibliometric analysis and conten t analysis to trace the research trajectory both domestically and internationally in Chin a. The study finds that while existing scholarship has accumulated considerable mome ntum, it generally exhibits common limitations, including ＂excessive theoretical transpla ntation with insufficient local interpretation,＂ ＂dominant structural descriptions coupled with weak mechanism analysis,＂ and ＂predominance of static studies versus inadequat e process-oriented research.＂ Addressing these shortcomings, this paper adopts the mult i-source model as a theoretical framework and integrates it with China's governance c ontext characterized by ＂the Party's comprehensive leadership, strong government guida nce, and multi-stakeholder collaboration.＂ It operationalizes key elements of the model, emphasizing the overarching role of political flows, the strategic triggering characteris tics of policy windows, and the organizational forms of policy entrepreneurs, thereby e stablishing a localized explanatory pathway of ＂basic adaptation—partial refinement— mechanistic deepening.＂ The study demonstrates that the Kingdon model exhibits ＂parti al adaptability＂ in the Chinese context: its core logic remains explanatory, but its anal ytical efficacy can only be fully realized when embedded within China's institutional v ariables. In terms of research design, this study adopts a qualitative research paradigm and an analytical approach that integrates historical and logical perspectives. It primarily uses policy documents on higher education continuing education at the central level fr om 1949 to 2025 as research materials, employs systematic coding analysis using NVi vo software, and supplements it with in-depth interviews with key stakeholders to achi eve triangular validation between policy textual evidence and practical experience. The overall study follows a progressive logic of ＂historical review—origins analysis—iden tification of coupling mechanisms—theoretical reflection,＂ aiming to establish an organi c connection between long-term historical evolution and micro-level policy mechanisms. The study particularly emphasizes that under China's non-pluralistic political structure, the operation of the multi-stream model is not entirely random coupling but rather e xhibits a more directional institutionalized coupling process within a strong political gr avitational field. From the perspective of historical institutionalism, this paper divides the evolution of China's higher education continuing education policies since 1949 into four interna lly consistent stages and systematically delineates the key agenda priorities and interact ive characteristics among their origins in each stage. The first stage （1949–1966） was characterized as a period of foundation-building and exploration. The problem-driven a spect of this phase primarily stemmed from literacy campaigns and the rigid demand of the new regime for cadres and technical talent, while the political dimension was d ominated by state consolidation and the construction of socialist ideology; the policy d imension was prominently reflected in the institutional adoption of the Soviet Union's worker-peasant education system. The convergence of these three dimensions exhibited a typical feature of ＂politically driven top-level promotion,＂ with continuing education being integrated into the national talent mobilization framework for development. The second phase （1977–1999） marked the period of restoration and institutional development. With the reinstatement of the national college entrance examination and t he emergence of a talent gap, society's strong demand for academic advancement rapi dly evolved into a significant demand stream; the political focus shifted toward prioriti zing economic development and implementing the ＂revitalizing the nation through scie nce and education＂ strategy; and institutional mechanisms such as the adult college ent rance examination, self-study examinations, and radio and television universities rapidly took shape within policy frameworks. This stage was characterized by a synergistic r elationship between rising social demand and strategic national responses, formally esta blishing adult higher education on an institutionalized trajectory. The third stage （2000–2015） marked a period of scale expansion and diversificati on exploration. Driven by both the popularization of higher education and the rise of internet technology, a range of policy instruments emerged—including distance educati on pilots, online education institutions, reforms to the self-study examination system, a nd university-industry collaborations. Politically, international competitive pressures follo wing China's accession to the WTO, coupled with the strategic goal of building a lear ning society, created policy space for moderate marketization in education. Policy deve lopments during this phase were primarily driven by the interaction between technolog ical progress and market demand; technological empowerment served as a key catalyst for this synergy, yet it also introduced institutional risks regarding quality assurance a nd potential reputation fluctuations. The fourth stage （from 2016 to present） has entered a period of connotation enha ncement and high-quality transformation. The core issues during this phase manifest as the social trust crisis triggered by academic credential inflation and the stringent cons traints on talent quality imposed by building a skills-based society; the political dimen sion is further reinforced under the guidance of the ＂Double First-Class＂ initiative, edu cational evaluation reforms, and the national strategy for talent development; while the policy dimension is primarily reflected in precision governance tools such as the sepa ration of administration, operation, and evaluation, standardization of educational institu tions, and the establishment of credit banks and national qualification frameworks. The coupling mechanism between source and flow exhibits a composite characteristic of ＂ top-level design × problem-driven pressure,＂ marking a profound transition of China's higher continuing education from a scale-oriented approach to a quality-oriented one. The NVivo text analysis results further empirically validate the aforementioned sta ge evolution. The trajectory of high-frequency terms reveals that policy discourse has evolved from early concepts such as ＂workers and peasants＂ and ＂literacy education,＂ through mid-term terms like ＂expansion of enrollment,＂ ＂open universities,＂ and ＂onli ne education,＂ to the current focus on ＂high quality,＂ ＂standardization,＂ ＂substance,＂ and ＂credit banks.＂ Semantic network and node correlation analyses indicate that after 2016, the coupling intensity between the ＂standardized education＂ node and the ＂high- quality transformation＂ phase reached its peak, reflecting a significant enhancement in policy tools 'ability to identify societal pain points. Meanwhile, interview data reveal t hat China's policy entrepreneurs are not individual lobbyists in the Western sense but rather a multi-level collaborative network comprising core decision-makers, expert advi sory bodies, and social support networks—a finding that supplements and expands the classic multi-source theory from an organizational perspective. Based on a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper argues th at the revised multi-source flow model demonstrates strong applicability in explaining the evolution of China's higher education continuing education policies. The political fl ow in China exhibits significant overarching and proactive characteristics; it actively o pens ＂strategic windows＂ through institutional milestones such as five-year plans and n ational strategies, thereby creating a strong gravitational field during the source-flow c oupling process. This mechanism of ＂planned window opening＂ significantly reduces th e uncertainty in policy coupling, enabling the state to drive structural reforms within t he complex education system within a relatively short timeframe. Additionally, the ide ntification of a multi-level network of policy entrepreneurs addresses the limitation of Western models in insufficiently addressing collective institutional actors. At the level of policy implications, this paper proposes that the optimization of C hina's higher education continuing education policy system in the future should focus on five key areas: First, establishing a dynamic problem identification mechanism base d on big data to enhance policy sensitivity to real-world industry-education conflicts; s econd, further strengthening the deep integration between continuing education and the national strategy of ＂talent dividend＂ to reinforce the strategic guidance role of politi cal initiatives; third, enriching policy toolkits by encouraging participation from industr y associations, think tanks, and platform enterprises in designing digital continuing edu cation programs; fourth, precisely timing the implementation of policy measures to im prove control over the pace of major reforms; fifth, accelerating the development of c redit banks and national qualification frameworks to break down institutional barriers b etween academic education, vocational education, and non-academic education. Overall, the more than seven decades of evolution in China's higher education co ntinuing education policies serve as a significant reflection of the ongoing modernizati on of national governance logic. Looking ahead, only by adhering to the strategic co mmitment of enhancing quality and pursuing high-quality development, fully leveraging the opportunities presented by the digital technology revolution, and establishing a cl osed-loop governance system characterized by ＂top-level design—grassroots feedback— continuous evaluation,＂ can we truly address fluctuations in social reputation and achie ve a historic transformation of continuing education from a ＂scale compensation mecha nism＂ to a ＂core infrastructure for lifelong learning,＂ thereby providing sustained huma n capital support for Chinese-style modernization.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1. Research Background and Significance 1
• 1.1.1. The Strategic Importance and Contemporary Challenges of Higher Education Continuing Education 1
• 1.1.2. Limitations of existing policy research and the focus of this study 4
• 1.2. Definition of Core Concepts 9
• 1.2.1. Continuing Education for Higher Educational Qualifications 9
• 1.2.2 Legal Basis Related to Higher Education Continuing Education 12
• 1.2.3 Education Policy, Policy Changes, and Agenda Setting 15
• 1.2.4 Core Concepts of the Kingdon Multi-Source Flow Model 16
• 1.3. Research Questions and Objectives 19
• 1.3.1 Research Questions 19
• 1.3.2 Research Objectives 20
• 1.4. Research Approach and Methods 22
• 1.4.1 Overall Research Approach 22
• 1.4.2 Overview of Major Research Methods 24
• 1.5. Structure and Innovations of the Thesis 27
• 1.5.1 Structure of the Thesis 27
• 1.5.2 Key Innovations of the Study 30
• CHAPTER 2. Theoretical Basis and Literature Review 33
• 2.1. Basic Theories of Higher Education Continuing Education 33
• 2.1.1. Evolution of Connotation and Multiple Values 33
• 2.1.2. Relevant Theoretical Perspectives 33
• 2.2. The Theory of Educational Policy Process 34
• 2.2.1. Review of the Mainstream Western Educational Policy Process Models 34
• 2.2.2. The Nature, Characteristics, and Applications of the Kingdon Multi-Source Flow Model 35
• 2.3. Review of Research on China's Domestic and International Higher Education Continuing Education Policies 37
• 2.3.1. Experiences and Trends of Foreign Policies on Higher Education Continuing Education 37
• 2.3.2. Current Research Status on China's Higher Education Continuing Education Policies 40
• 2.3.3. Summary of This Chapter 48
• 2.4. Development of the Analytical Framework for This Study 49
• 2.4.1. Specify the specific analytical dimensions of the Kingdon model employed in this study 49
• 2.4.2. Define the specific manifestations of ＂problem flows,＂ ＂political flows,＂ and ＂policy flows＂ in the China context, the types of ＂policy windows,＂ and the composition of ＂policy entrepreneurs.＂ 49
• CHAPTER 3. Research Design and Methods 54
• 3.1 Research Paradigm and Methodological Approach. 54
• 3.1.1 Establishment of Research Paradigm: A mixed paradigm dominated by qualitative research with quantitative methods as supplementary 54
• 3.1.2 Research Approach Design: A Systematic Analysis Framework Based on the ＂Four-Dimensional Progressive＂ Approach 55
• 3.2 Basis and Explanation for Historical Periodization 56
• 3.2.1 Theoretical Basis and Core Logic of Phasing 56
• 3.2.2 Details and Comparative Characteristics of the Four-Stage Division 57
• 3.3 Selection and Processing of Policy Texts 59
• 3.3.1 Criteria and Scope for Text Selection 59
• 3.4 In-depth Interviews with Key Informants 67
• 3.4.1 Selection and Characteristics of Interview Subjects 67
• 3.4.2 Semi-structured Interview Outline 72
• 3.4.3 Interview Implementation Process 75
• 3.5 Establishment and Implementation of the NVivo Qualitative Coding System 76
• 3.5.1 Process for Establishing a Coding System. 76
• 3.5.2 Reliability Assurance for the Encoding Process 77
• 3.5.3 General Table of the Three-Level Coding System. 79
• 3.5.4 Frequency of Reference and Distribution Statistics for Each Secondary Code 93
• 3.5.5 Comparison of Four-Stage Coding Distribution 97
• 3.6 Research Process Management and Ethical Considerations 99
• 3.6.1 Progress Management Throughout the Entire Research Cycle 99
• 3.6.2 A Multi-dimensional Ethical Protection System 100
• 3.6.3 Ethical Review and Risk Management 101
• CHAPTER 4. Multi-source Analysis of China's Higher Education Continuing Education Policies 103
• 4.1. Foundation and Exploration Stage （1949–1966）: Initial Construction Under Ideological Guidance 103
• 4.1.1. Source of the Problem: The urgent need for literacy promotion and cadre training, and support for national development 103
• 4.1.2. Political Origins: Consolidation of the new regime, establishment of socialist ideology, and adoption of the Soviet model 107
• 4.1.3. Historical Origins of Policies: Initial explorations included the Workers 'and Peasants' Accelerated Secondary School, night universities, and correspondence education programs. 110
• 4.1.4. Policy Window and Coupling Mechanism: Policy Choices Driven by Strong National Will 116
• 4.1.5. Summary of this stage: Characteristics of policy formation and the interaction model between sources 121
• 4.2. Restoration and Standardization Development Stage （1977–1999）: Demand Recovery Driven by Reform and Opening-Up 125
• 4.2.1. Root Causes: Talent gap compensation, pressure from the single-path college entrance examination system, and economic development's demand for diverse talent pools 127
• 4.2.2. Political Origins: Correcting historical wrongs, placing economic development at the center, and proposing the strategy of revitalizing the country through science and education 132
• 4.2.3. Historical Development of Policies: Restoration of the Adult College Entrance Examination; Development of Self-Study Examinations; Standardization of Radio and Television Universities; Pilot Programs for Academic Diploma Examinations 142
• 4.2.4. Policy Window and Coupling Mechanism: Alignment Between Social Needs and National Strategies 164
• 4.2.5. Summary of this stage: Characteristics of policy formation and the interaction model between sources 165
• 4.3 Scale Expansion and Diversification Exploration Stage （2000–2015）: Dual Influences of Marketization and Informatization 166
• 4.3.1 Root Causes: Massification of Higher Education, Challenges of the Knowledge Economy, and Rising Demand for Academic Qualifications 167
• 4.3.2 Political Origins: Building a Learning Society, Educational Informatization, and the Strategy for a Strong Human Resources Nation 169
• 4.3.3 Historical Background of Policies: Pilot Programs for Modern Distance Education, Transformation of Adult Higher Education Institutions, and Adjustments to the Self-Study Examination System 170
• 4.3.4 Policy Window and Coupling Mechanism: Dual Drivers of Technological Progress and Market Demand 171
• 4.3.5 Summary of This Stage: Characteristics of Policy Formation and the Interaction Model Between Sources 172
• 4.4 Connotation Enhancement and High-Quality Development Transformation Phase （2016–2025）: Systemic Reshaping Under National Strategic Guidance 174
• 4.4.1 Root Causes: Quality trust crisis, pressure to standardize educational operations and align institutional capabilities 175
• 4.4.2 Political Origins: The Strategic Driving Forces Behind Building a Strong Education System, Cultivating a Skilled Talent Pool, and Modernizing Governance 176
• 4.4.3 Policy Origins: Standardized Education Management, Quality Assurance, Credit Bank, and Qualification Framework Development 178
• 4.4.4 Policy Window and Coupling Mechanism: A Composite Coupling of Top-Level Design and Problem-Driven Forces 180
• 4.4.5 Summary of This Stage: Characteristics of Policy Formation and the Interaction Model Between Sources 181
• 4.5 Cross-stage comparisons and enhanced insights through NVivo-assisted analysis 183
• 4.5.1 Comparative Analysis of the Characteristics of the Three Source Streams at Different Stages 183
• 4.5.2 Phased Comparison of Key Policy Windows and Evolution of Coupling Mechanisms 191
• 4.5.3 Analysis of Theme Evolution and Emotional Tendency in Policy Texts Using NVivo 193
• 4.5.4 Exploration of the Role and Mechanisms of Policy Entrepreneurs in the China Context 207
• 4.5.5 Support and Enhancement of the Three Research Questions by Interview Data 223
• CHAPTER 5. Discussion 229
• 5.1. Key research findings: Inductive analysis based on the research question 229
• 5.2 Theoretical Dialogue: Applicability and Modifications of the Multi-Source Flow Model 231
• 5.3 Dialogue with Previous Research 234
• 5.4 Research Limitations and Prospects 237
• CHAPTER 6. Conclusion and Policy Implications 239
• 6.1. Main Conclusions 239
• 6.1.1 The policy agenda for China's higher education continuing education exhibits a phased evolution pattern characterized by ＂political mobilization—institutional restoration— scale expansion—quality governance＂. 239
• 6.1.2 The tri-source coupling mechanism exhibits an evolutionary pattern shifting from unilateral dominance by political flows to a composite driving force combining strategic guidance and problem-driven impetus 241
• 6.1.3 Policy entrepreneurs play a pivotal role in agenda-setting by transitioning from administrative-driven actors to multi-level network collaborative actors. 243
• 6.2 Policy Implications Based on Multi-source Flow Analysis 245
• 6.2.1. Optimization of problem identification and construction mechanisms: Enhancing sensitivity to genuine problems and the ability for scientific definition 245
• 6.2.2 Strengthen strategic guidance and political support to enhance the stability and legitimacy of the policy agenda 246
• 6.2.3 Strengthen policy proposal development and pilot innovation to enhance the maturity and flexibility of policy frameworks 247
• 6.2.4 Identify the optimal timing to activate policy mechanisms and enhance the source-flow integration capability of policy-driven entrepreneurs. 248
• 6.2.5 Establish a systematic and forward-looking policy framework for higher education continuing education 249
• epilogue 252
• References 255