(The) Rise of UAE Regional Power and Normalization of UAE-Israel Relations : An Empirical Study

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This dissertation examines the extent to which the rise of the United Arab Emirates as an emerging regional power contributed to its decision to normalize relations with Israel. It proceeds from the central premise that the UAE Israel normalization should not be understood merely as an isolated diplomatic event or as a short-term reaction to regional pressures, but rather as part of a wider transformation in the UAE’s regional role, strategic autonomy, and foreign policy behavior. The study analyzes the UAE’s regional rise through a multidimensional framework that includes economic diversification, military modernization, diplomatic activism, soft power projection, political stability, governance capacity, and strategic confidence. It then examines normalization with Israel as a complex foreign policy outcome shaped by security concerns, economic and technological incentives, diplomatic repositioning, geopolitical calculation, and identity related considerations.
The dissertation adopts an integrated theoretical framework combining realism and constructivism. Realism provides the analytical basis for examining power, security, national interest, threat perception, and alliance reassessment, while constructivism explains the role of identity, norms, legitimacy, and changing meanings of acceptable diplomatic conduct. Methodologically, the study employs a mixed methods design. It combines qualitative analysis of the UAE’s regional rise and normalization behavior with descriptive statistical analysis of survey data designed to measure respondent perceptions of the relationship between the two variables.
The findings show that the UAE’s normalization with Israel was not caused by one single factor. Rather, it emerged from the interaction of accumulated national capabilities, changing regional threat perceptions, economic modernization priorities, diplomatic ambition, and identity-based narratives of tolerance and future oriented statecraft. The study finds that the UAE’s rise as an emerging regional power significantly contributed to normalization by creating the strategic capacity, political confidence, and foreign policy autonomy necessary for such a consequential diplomatic shift. At the same time, the dissertation recognizes that regional security dynamics, external partnerships, and broader Arab Israeli realignments also shaped the timing and context of the decision.
The dissertation concludes that the UAE Israel normalization represents a major case of foreign policy reorientation by an emerging regional power. It demonstrates how regional power growth can enable states to revise traditional diplomatic positions, diversify alliances, and pursue new forms of strategic partnership. The study contributes to International Relations scholarship by showing that foreign policy change in the Middle East is best understood through the interaction of material power, strategic calculation, identity construction, and regional status seeking. It also offers broader insight into the evolving patterns of Gulf foreign policy, Arab Israeli diplomatic realignment, and the changing structure of regional order in the contemporary Middle East.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. Introduction 14
• 1.1. Background 14
• 1.2. Research Questions 22
• 1.3. Hypothesis 25
• 1.4. Methodology 27
• 1.5. Methods 29
• 1.5.1. Mixed Methods Approach 30
• 1.5.2. Statistical Analysis 32
• 1.5.3. Historical Development Approach 33
• 1.5.4. Close-Ended Survey 34
• 1.6. Research Outline 36
• II. Theoretical Foundations 39
• 2.1. The Integrated Theoretical Framework of the Dissertation 39
• 2.2. Core Tenets of Realism 42
• 2.2.1. Anarchy and Self-Help in the International System 43
• 2.2.2. Power and Security as Central Objectives 46
• 2.2.3. National Interest and Rational Choice 48
• 2.3. Core Tenets of Constructivism 49
• 2.3.1. Social Construction of Reality 50
• 2.3.2. Identity and State Behavior 53
• 2.3.3. Norms and International Relations 56
• 2.4. Complementary Insights from Realism and Constructivism 58
• 2.4.1. Security and Identity as Dual Drivers of State Behavior 58
• 2.4.2. Power, Norms, and Alliance Formation 59
• 2.4.3. Balancing Material and Ideational Factors in International Relations 62
• III. The Rise of the UAE as a Regional Power 65
• 3.1. Analytical Framing of the UAE’s Regional Rise 65
• 3.2. Economic Power and Diversification 67
• 3.2.1. Economic Growth and Wealth Accumulation 67
• 3.2.2. Diversification beyond Oil 68
• 3.2.3. Regional and Global Trade Partnerships 72
• 3.3. Military Modernization and Defense Capabilities 75
• 3.3.1. Investment in Military Technology 75
• 3.3.2. Regional Military Engagements and Influence 77
• 3.3.3. Development of Strategic Defense Alliances 79
• 3.4. Diplomatic Influence and Soft Power 81
• 3.4.1. Regional and Global Diplomatic Relations 81
• 3.4.2. Cultural Diplomacy and Soft Power 84
• 3.4.3. Humanitarian Aid and International Development 87
• 3.5. Political Stability and Governance Model 90
• 3.5.1. Political Stability as a Foundation for Growth 90
• 3.5.2. Visionary Leadership and Strategic Planning 93
• IV. The Normalization of UAE-Israeli Relations. 97
• 4.1. UAE Israel Normalization as a Strategic Outcome 97
• 4.2. Motivations behind the UAE’s Normalization with Israel 100
• 4.2.1. Strategic Security Concerns 100
• 4.2.2. Economic and Technological Incentives 102
• 4.2.3. Diplomatic and Geopolitical Objectives. 104
• 4.2.4. Identity and Ideational Factors 106
• 4.3. Economic Impact and Opportunities of Normalization 108
• 4.3.1. Bilateral Trade and Investment 109
• 4.3.2. Technology and Innovation Partnerships 111
• 4.3.3. Tourism and People-to-People Exchanges 114
• 4.4. Strategic and Security Implications of Normalization 116
• 4.4.1. Counterbalancing Regional Threats 117
• 4.4.2. Regional Power Dynamics and Alliances 121
• 4.5. Public Perception and Societal Impact 125
• 4.5.1. Domestic Reception within the UAE 125
• 4.5.2. Western Reactions and International Image 128
• V. Empirical Analysis of UAE Regional Power and the Normalization Decision 134
• 5.1. Methodological Validity 134
• 5.1.1. Justification of the Closed-Ended Questionnaire 134
• 5.1.2. Appropriateness of the Likert Scale 134
• 5.2. Survey Structure and Theoretical Alignment 135
• 5.2.1. Overview of Survey Data and Sample Profile. 135
• 5.2.2. Geographic and Geopolitical Distribution of the Sample 139
• 5.3. Qualitative Analysis 140
• 5.3.1. Rise of UAE Regional Power 140
• 5.3.2. Normalization of UAE–Israel Relations. 145
• 5.3.3. Causal Link 151
• 5.4. Descriptive Statistical Analysis 159
• 5.4.1. Analysis of Central Tendencies 160
• 5.4.2. Analysis of Dispersion 160
• 5.4.3. Discussion of Empirical Trends 161
• 5.5. Linking Results to Theory 164
• 5.5.1. Realism 164
• 5.5.2. Constructivism 165
• 5.5.3. Complementary Synthesis: Balancing Material and Ideational Factors. 166
• 5.5.4. Systematic Alignment with Theoretical Expectations. 167
• 5.6. Implications for Policy / Strategy 167
• 5.6.1. Practical Insights for Regional Stability 168
• 5.6.2. Strategic Direction for Geoeconomic Statecraft 168
• 5.6.3. Institutional Implications and Multi-Vector Coordination 169
• 5.7. Findings 170
• VI. Conclusion 172
• 6.1. Concluding Synthesis 172
• 6.1.1. General Theoretical and Methodological Approach 173
• 6.2. Summary of Main Findings 174
• 6.2.1. Key Findings on the Rise of UAE Regional Power 174
• 6.2.2. Key Findings on the Normalization of UAE Israel Relations 175
• 6.2.3. Key Findings from the Survey Chapter 176
• 6.2.4. Overall Pattern of Findings 176
• 6.3. Answering the Research Questions 177
• 6.3.1. Answer to the Main Research Question 177
• 6.3.2. Answer to Sub Question One 178
• 6.3.3. Answer to Sub Question Two 180
• 6.3.4. Answer to Sub Question Three and Sub Question Four 181
• 6.4. Evaluation of the Hypothesis 182
• 6.4.1. Evaluation of the Main Hypothesis 182
• 6.4.2. Support from Chapter 3 183
• 6.4.3. Support from Chapter 4 184
• 6.4.4. Support from Chapter 5 and Final Assessment 185
• 6.5. Theoretical Contributions 186
• 6.5.1. Contribution to Realism 186
• 6.5.2. Contribution to Constructivism 187
• 6.5.3. Contribution to the Study of Foreign Policy Reorientation 188
• 6.5.4. Contribution to the Study of Emerging Regional Powers 189
• 6.6. Policy and Practical Implications 190
• 6.6.1. Implications for Gulf Foreign Policy 190
• 6.6.2. Implications for Regional Alliance Behavior 191
• 6.6.3. Implications for Arab Israeli Diplomatic Realignment 191
• 6.6.4. Broader Implications for Strategic Reorientation in the Middle East 192
• 6.7. Suggestions for Future Research 193
• 6.7.1. Comparative Studies on Other Normalization Cases 193
• 6.7.2. Future Research Using Alternative Methods 194
• 6.7.3. Further Theoretical Development on Regional Power and Foreign Policy Change 195
• Bibliography 197