Realist Perspectives on Hegemonic Stability and Regional Security : An Empirical Study of the Collapse Dynamics of the Bashar al Assad Regime in Syria

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This dissertation examines the collapse dynamics of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria through a realist framework that integrates Hegemonic Stability Theory, Regional Security Complex Theory, and realist proxy warfare analysis. Rather than treating the Syrian conflict as a purely domestic uprising or as a linear process of state failure, the study argues that regime collapse emerged from the cumulative interaction between global hegemonic shifts, regional security competition, and the weakening or fragmentation of proxy support structures. The dissertation therefore conceptualizes collapse not as the immediate disappearance of formal political authority, but as the progressive erosion of effective rule, reflected in territorial fragmentation, administrative decline, service breakdown, coercive strain, elite fragmentation, and contested recognition. This structure corresponds to the dissertation’s organization, which moves from theoretical foundations to external structural pressures, regime collapse indicators, empirical assessment, and final hypothesis evaluation.
Methodologically, the research employs a mixed methods design with a predominantly qualitative orientation. It combines process tracing, document analysis, structured case study analysis, and a closed ended questionnaire administered to informed respondents. This design enables the study to connect macro level theories of power and regional security with observable mechanisms of regime weakening in the Syrian case. The empirical chapter evaluates expert perceptions of global hegemonic dynamics, regional security rivalries, proxy warfare, and their combined effect on regime collapse. The survey findings support the central argument, with strong agreement among respondents that external power dynamics, regional interventions, and proxy forces played decisive roles, while also recognizing the importance of internal governance, economic, and societal vulnerabilities.
The dissertation finds that the Assad regime’s collapse was neither purely external nor purely internal. Global powers shaped the strategic environment, regional actors transformed Syria into an arena of security competition, and proxy forces transmitted external rivalry into the domestic conflict field. At the same time, these pressures operated through preexisting domestic weaknesses. The study concludes that external support may preserve formal regime survival without restoring autonomous, legitimate, and effective state authority. Its contribution lies in refining realist explanations of regime collapse by showing how hegemonic disorder, regional rivalry, and proxy dependence interact to produce layered forms of state erosion in heavily penetrated conflict environments.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. Introduction 1
• 1.1. Research Background 1
• 1.2. Research Questions 12
• 1.3. Hypotheses 14
• 1.4. Methodology 17
• 1.5. Methods 22
• 1.6. Research Outline 28
• II. Theoretical foundations 30
• 2.1. Realism in International Relations 31
• 2.2. Hegemonic Stability Theory （HST） 34
• 2.3. Regional Security Complex Theory （RSCT） 37
• 2.4. Proxy Warfare in Realist Theory 40
• 2.5. Power Transition Theory in Realism 42
• 2.6. Integrating HST, RSCT, and Realist Proxy Theory 45
• 2.6.1. Comparative Theoretical Context 45
• 2.7. Realist Perspective on Regime Collapse 48
• III. External Structural Pressures and Regional Security Dynamics in the Syrian Conflict 53
• 3.1. Scope, Concepts, and Boundaries 53
• 3.2. Hegemonic Shifts in the International System 54
• 3.2.1. Capability and Willingness: Defining Hegemonic Leadership 54
• 3.2.2. Indicators of Global Capability （Economic, Military, Technological） 57
• 3.2.3. Posture and Presence （alliances, forward deployments, basing） 59
• 3.2.4. Leadership Signals ＆ Agenda-Setting （doctrines, institutions） 61
• 3.3. External Power Policies and Timelines 65
• 3.4. The Middle East as a Regional Security Complex （RSCT Lens） 69
• 3.4.1. Regional Interdependence ＆ Threat Constellations 69
• 3.4.2. Rivalry Structures and Alignment Patterns 73
• 3.4.3. External Penetration of the Complex 74
• 3.4.4. Issue Linkages （Energy, Borders, Sectarian Fractures） 74
• 3.4.5. Regional Institutions and Informal Regimes 75
• 3.4.6. RSCT Schematic: Clustered Security Dynamics 76
• 3.5. Proxy Architectures and Sponsorship Networks 77
• 3.6. Instruments of External Influence 81
• 3.7. Turning Points in External Posture （Process-Tracing Anchors） 85
• IV. Regime Collapse Dynamics and the Erosion of Effective Rule in Syria 90
• 4.1. Defining and Operationalizing Regime Collapse 90
• 4.2. The manifestation of the regime collapse 91
• 4.2.1. Land lost by the regime 92
• 4.2.2. Breakdown of government services 94
• 4.2.3. Loss of unity in the army and security forces 97
• 4.2.4. Exit of leaders and elites 98
• 4.2.5. Loss of recognition at home and abroad 99
• 4.2.6. Coding rules and checking 100
• 4.3. The Main Causes That Led to Collapse 101
• 4.4. Testing Turning Points 103
• 4.4.1. T1: Regionalization of the Conflict, 2012 104
• 4.4.2. T2: MOC and MOM Coordination Structures, 2013. 106
• 4.4.3. T3, Iran’s Credit Lines to Damascus, 2013 and 2015 107
• 4.4.4. T4, Anti ISIS Coalition Formation, 2014 108
• 4.4.5. T5, United States Train and Equip Program, 2014 to 2015 110
• 4.4.6. T6, Russian Military Intervention, 2015 111
• 4.4.7. T7, Fall of Aleppo, 2016 112
• 4.4.8. T8, United States Alignment with the SDF and YPG, 2017 114
• 4.4.9. T9, Astana Process and De Escalation Zones, 2017 115
• 4.5. Other Possible Explanations 117
• 4.6. Full Narrative of Collapse 120
• 4.7. Main Findings 121
• V. Empirical Assessment of External Power Dynamics and Regime Collapse in Syria 125
• 5.1. Methodological Validity 125
• 5.1.1. The Closed-Ended Questionnaire 126
• 5.1.2. Appropriateness of the Likert Scale 126
• 5.2. Survey Structure and Theoretical Alignment 127
• 5.2.1. Overview of Survey Data and Sample Profile 127
• 5.3. Qualitative Analysis 131
• 5.3.1. Global Hegemonic Dynamics （HST）. 131
• 5.3.2. Regional Security Dynamics （RSCT） 136
• 5.3.3. Proxy Dynamics 140
• 5.3.4. Combined Effect （Main Hypothesis H1） 144
• 5.4. Descriptive Statistical Analysis 149
• 5.4.1. Analysis of Central Tendencies 150
• 5.4.2. Analysis of Dispersion 151
• 5.4.3. Discussion of Empirical Trends 152
• 5.5. Linking Results to Theory 154
• 5.5.1. Hegemonic Stability Theory （HST） 154
• 5.5.2. Regional Security Complex Theory （RSCT） 155
• 5.5.3. Realist Proxy Warfare Theory 156
• 5.6. Implications for Policy / Strategy 156
• 5.6.1. Practical Insights for Client-Regime Survival under Anarchy 157
• 5.7. Main Findings 157
• VI. Conclusion 160
• 6.1. Summary of Main Findings 161
• 6.1.1. Synthesis of the Findings 161
• 6.1.2. General Pattern of Results 164
• 6.2. Answering the Research Questions 165
• 6.3. Evaluation of the Hypotheses 171
• 6.3.1. Main Hypothesis: H1 Supported or Not 171
• 6.3.2. Sub-Hypothesis H1a: Global Level 173
• 6.3.3. Sub-Hypothesis H1b: Regional Level 174
• 6.3.4. Sub-Hypothesis H1c: Proxy Level 174
• 6.4. Theoretical Contributions 176
• 6.4.1. Contribution to Realism 176
• 6.4.2. Contribution to Hegemonic Stability Theory 177
• 6.4.3. Contribution to RSCT 178
• 6.4.4. Contribution to Proxy Theory 178
• 6.5. Policy and Practical Implications 179
• 6.5.1. Lessons for Global Powers 180
• 6.5.2. Lessons for Regional Actors 180
• 6.5.3. Lessons on Proxy Use 181
• 6.5.4. Broader Implications for Conflict Management 182
• 6.6. Suggestions for Future Research 182
• Bibliography 185