From Soviet Legacy to Strategic Partnership : Energy Interdependence, Bilateral Trade Dynamics, And The Evolving Pillars Of Russia–Uzbekistan Relations In The Post-Soviet Era（1991–2024）

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This thesis examines the pillars of Russia-Uzbekistan relations – energy and trade – from an international relations perspective, with a focus on the post-Soviet era and current developments. It explores how historical ties since the Russian Empire and Soviet period laid the groundwork for contemporary interactions. The study reviews academic literature on Central Asian foreign relations and employs relevant International Relations theories （realism, interdependence, and regional geopolitics） to frame the analysis. Using up-to-date data on trade volumes, energy exports and imports, and bilateral agreements, the thesis highlights the evolving dynamics between Moscow and Tashkent. It finds that in the post-Soviet period Uzbekistan has navigated a multi-vector foreign policy: maintaining close economic and energy links with Russia while also expanding partnerships with China and other players. Trade has grown significantly, with China recently overtaking Russia as Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner by the mid-2010s （Eurasianet,2021）, though Russia remains a key market and source of imports . In energy, Soviet-era infrastructure created interdependence that persists, but there have been shifts – Uzbekistan historically exported natural gas to Russia and China, yet recent shortages turned it into a net importer requiring Russian gas supply （Eurasianet, 2024） . The thesis provides detailed analysis of these trends, supported by government trade statistics, international energy data, and case studies of major agreements （such as gas contracts and proposed joint projects like pipelines and a nuclear plant）. Graphs and tables illustrate the trade turnovers and energy flows. The conclusion evaluates how energy and trade bolster the “strategic partnership” between Russia and Uzbekistan, while also noting the balancing act Uzbekistan performs amid broader geopolitical currents in Central Asia. Declaration I, Mokhimbegim Karimova Avazbek Kizi, certify that this work is entirely original, has not been published before, and has not been submitted for credit toward any other degree at any other institution

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Chapter One: Introduction 1
• 1.1. Background Study 1
• 1.2. Research Questions and Objectives 3
• 1.3. Structure of the Thesis 4
• 1.4. Research Methodology 5
• Chapter 2. Literature Review 7
• 2.1. Overview of Existing Research 7
• 2.2. Historical Legacies (Soviet Legacy and Bilateral Relations) 10
• 2.3. Post-Soviet Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Dynamics 13
• 2.4. Energy and Trade Dynamics (Natural Gas, Oil, Regional Infrastructure, Economic Ties)18
• 2.5. Contribution of This Study 24
• Chapter Three. Theoretical Framework 26
• 3.1. Realism and Strategic Interests 26
• 3.2. Complex Interdependence Theory 28
• 3.3 Regional Geopolitics and the “Great Game” Paradigm 31
• Chapter Four. Russia–Uzbekistan Relations 33
• 4.1. Overview of Russian-Uzbekistan Relations 33
• 4.2. The Russian Empire and Early Influences 34
• 4.3. The Soviet Era and Centralized Economic Integration 35
• 4.4. Post-Soviet Disengagement and Gradual Rapprochement. 37
• Chapter Five. Trade Relations 44
• 5.1. Overview of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Trade Policy 44
• 5.1.1. Key characteristics of Exports 44
• 5.1.2. Key Characteristics of Imports 46
• 5.1.3. Volume and Growth 48
• 5.1.4. Major Trade Partners 49
• 5.2. Trade with Russia and the CIS countries 51
• 5.2.1. Trade Volume and Share. 52
• 5.2.2. Uzbekistan’s Exports to Russia 54
• 5.2.3. Uzbekistan’s Imports from Russia 55
• 5.2.4. CIS Partners – Kazakhstan and Others 56
• 5.3. Trade with China and Emerging Partners 57
• Chapter Six. Energy Relations 64
• 6.1. Russia’s Strategic Energy Interests in Central Asia 64
• 6.2. Uzbekistan’s Energy Sector in the Post-Soviet Era 67
• 6.3. Current Energy Relations with Russia 70
• 6.4. Growing Energy Engagement with China 74
• 6.5. Uzbekistan’s Energy Transition Shifting from Exporter to Importer 79
• Chapter Seven. Conclusion 82
• 7.1. Summary of Key Findings 82
• 7.2. Challenges Ahead 86
• 7.3. Recommendations for Future Research 87
• References 90