A study on the effectiveness of the early warning system in flood risk management in Nepal = 네팔의 홍수 위험 관리에서 조기경보시스템의 효과성 분석에 관한 연구

국문 초록 (Abstract)

네팔은 재해 발생 위험이 높은 국가로서, 그중에서도 홍수는 가장 빈번하고 파괴적인
자연재해에 속하며 인명 피해와 재산 및 기반시설의 손실을 지속적으로 초래하고 있다.
이러한 홍수 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 조기경보체계가 매우 중요한 역할을 한다. 네팔
정부는 홍수 조기경보체계를 구축하고 발전시켜 왔으나, 그 효과성은 지역별로 일관되게
나타나지 않는 문제가 존재한다.
본 연구는 네팔의 홍수 위험관리에서 조기경보체계가 얼마나 효과적으로 작동하고
있는지를 네 가지 핵심 요소—① 재해 위험 지식, ② 관측·감시·분석 및 예측 역량, ③ 경보
전달 및 소통 구조, ④ 대비 및 대응 역량—를 중심으로 살펴보았다.
연구 방법으로는 질적 분석을 적용하였으며, 수문기상국, 내무부,
국가재난위험경감관리청, 지방정부, 군과 경찰 등 치안기관, 국제기구·비정부기구 관계자,
지역 주민, 그리고 학계 전문가 등 13명의 주요 이해관계자와의 심층 인터뷰를 통해 자료를
수집하였다. 수집된 인터뷰 내용은 주제 분석을 통해 핵심 논점과 주요 주제를 도출하였다.
연구 결과, 대규모 하천 유역에서는 조기경보체계의 운영성과가 개선되고 있는 것으로
확인되었다. 그러나 산악 지역과 신규 홍수 위험 지역에서는 모니터링 지점 부족, 복잡한
지형적 특성, 상류 수문·기상 정보 부재 등의 문제로 인해 여전히 여러 어려움이 존재하는
것으로 나타났다. 이러한 요인들은 지역별 위험 지식의 격차, 기후변화가 야기하는 예측
78
불확실성, 기술 및 인적 자원 부족과 같은 제도적 한계와 결합되어 네팔 조기경보체계의
전반적인 효과성을 제약하고 있다. 특히 중국과의 상류 수문자료 교환에 관한 공식적인
체계가 부재하다는 점은 조기경보체계 성능 향상에 중요한 걸림돌로 확인되었다.
본 연구는 네팔의 조기경보체계 효과성을 강화하기 위해 △기술 인프라 확충 및 첨단 기술
도입, △전문 인력 양성과 제도적 역량 강화, △국제 협력 기반의 정보 공유 확대, △경보 전달
체계 및 소통 구조 개선, △기후변화에 대응할 수 있는 경보체계 고도화 등이 필요함을
제언한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As a disaster-prone country, Nepal frequently suffers from floods, one of the most common and
destructive natural disasters, which cause casualties, damage property, and infrastructure. Early
warning systems are vital in reducing fatalities and property damage during flood events.
Although Nepal has developed flood early warning systems, their effectiveness persists
inconsistent across the country.
This study examines the effectiveness of Nepal’s early warning system in flood risk management
based on four key pillars: disaster risk knowledge; detection, observation, monitoring, analysis,
and forecasting; warning dissemination and communication; and preparedness and response
capabilities.
A qualitative research method was adopted, drawing insights from 13 interviews with key
stakeholders, including officials from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the Ministry
of Home Affairs, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, Local
Government, Security Forces, INGOs, NGOs, the Public, and a University Professor. The interview
transcripts were examined through thematic analysis to extract main insights and themes.
The findings suggest that the effectiveness of flood early warning systems has improved in the
major river basins. However, mountainous and emerging flood-prone areas continue to face
several challenges. These areas face challenges due to inadequate monitoring stations, complex
topography, and a lack of timely upstream hydrometeorological information. Consequently, the
overall effectiveness of Nepal’s flood early warning system is constrained by uneven risk
knowledge, uncertainty created by the risk of climate change, limited institutional capacity,
including technological and human resource gaps. Moreover, the lack of a formal mechanism for
transboundary data sharing, especially with China, limits the effectiveness of the early warning
system.
The study concludes that enhancing the effectiveness of the early warning system requires
strengthening the technical infrastructure and advanced technologies, enhancing human
resources and institutional capacities, promoting international coordination and information
sharing, improving communication and dissemination mechanisms, and advancing a climate
responsive system.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Table of Contents
• Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1
• 1.1 Background of the study ............................................................................................................. 1
• 1.2 Statement of the problem ........................................................................................................... 2
• 1.3 The Purpose of Research ............................................................................................................. 3
• 1.4 Research Questions ..................................................................................................................... 3
• 1.4.1 Research Question 1 ............................................................................................................... 3
• 1.4.2 Research Question 2 ............................................................................................................... 4
• Chapter 2: Review of Related Literature and Conceptual Analysis .......................................................... 4
• 2.1 Early Warning System .................................................................................................................. 4
• 2.2 Emergence of Early Warning System........................................................................................... 5
• 2.3 Early Warning System in Nepal: .................................................................................................. 5
• 2.4 Early warning systems for flood risk management in Nepal ....................................................... 7
• 2.5 Defining the System’s Effectiveness ............................................................................................ 8
• 2.6 Disaster Risk Reduction Framework .......................................................................................... 10
• 2.7 System Theory ........................................................................................................................... 11
• 2.8 Four pillars in the early warning system .................................................................................... 11
• 2.8.1 Disaster risk knowledge ........................................................................................................ 11
• 2.8.2 Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting ............................................ 12
• 2.8.3 Warning dissemination and communication ........................................................................ 12
• 2.8.4 Preparedness and response capabilities ............................................................................... 12
• 2.9 Five Approaches to Building Functional Early Warning Systems .............................................. 13
• 2.10 Factors affecting the early warning system ............................................................................... 15
• 2.10.1 Institutional Factors .......................................................................................................... 15
• 2.10.2 Technical Factors .............................................................................................................. 16
• 2.10.3 Social Factors .................................................................................................................... 16
• 2.11 Disaster Management ............................................................................................................... 16
• 2.12 Disaster Management System in Nepal .................................................................................... 17
• 2.12.1 Legal and Regulatory Framework ..................................................................................... 17
• 2.12.2 Disaster Risk Reduction Management Institutions ........................................................... 18
• 2.13 Risk of Major Disasters in Nepal ................................................................................................ 19
• 2.14 Risk of Flood in Nepal ................................................................................................................ 20
• 2.15 Causes of Floods in Nepal .......................................................................................................... 22
• vi
• 2.16 Role of the Early Warning System in Disaster Management ..................................................... 23
• 2.17 Responsible Institutions for the flood forecasting and early warning system in Nepal ............ 24
• Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology ...................................................................................... 24
• 3.1 Primary Data .............................................................................................................................. 24
• 3.1.1 Selection of participants ....................................................................................................... 25
• 3.2 Secondary Data .......................................................................................................................... 27
• 3.3 Data Analysis: ............................................................................................................................ 28
• 3.4 Sampling frame and technique ................................................................................................. 28
• 3.5 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................................. 29
• Chapter 4: Data Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 30
• 4.1 Thematic Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 31
• 4.1.1 Disaster Risk Knowledge ....................................................................................................... 31
• 4.1.2 Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting ............................................ 34
• 4.1.3 Warning dissemination and communication ........................................................................ 39
• 4.1.4 Preparedness and response capabilities ............................................................................... 41
• 4.1.5 International Cooperation ..................................................................................................... 42
• 4.1.6 Legal Framework ................................................................................................................... 44
• 4.1.7 Institutional Provision ........................................................................................................... 46
• 4.1.8 Impact Reduction .................................................................................................................. 48
• 4.1.9 Role of NGOs ......................................................................................................................... 50
• 4.1.10 Role of the Private Sector ................................................................................................. 51
• 4.1.11 Suggested Measures for a More Effective Early Warning System .................................... 52
• 4.1.12 Case of Rasuwa Flood, 2025 ............................................................................................. 58
• Chapter 5: Findings and discussions ........................................................................................................... 59
• Chapter 6: Conclusion and Policy Recommendations ................................................................................ 65
• 6.1 Summary and Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 65
• 6.2 Policy Recommendation ................................................................................................................... 68
• 7. Limitations of the study ...................................................................................................................... 70
• Chapter 5: References ............................................................................................................................. 71
• Appendix I ................................................................................................................................................... 75