Multi-layer Network Analysis of the Dynamic Interplay between Production and Technological Capabilities for Economic Development = 경제 발전에서의 생산역량과 기술역량 간 역동적 상호작용에 관한 다층 네트워크 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Innovation, technological advancement, and diversification into more complex products and technologies are key drivers of economic development. Unlike previous studies focusing primarily on single-layer networks (e.g., product space or technology space) for growth toward more complex and sophisticated national economies, this research analyzes the dynamic interplay between production capabilities and technological capabilities using a product-technology multilayer network analysis framework that combines global trade data and patent data.
This study provides comprehensive quantitative evidence on how a country's production and technological capabilities evolve according to its development stage by addressing the following three key areas. First, the middle-income trap is reinterpreted from the perspective of economic complexity. By proposing a new Related Technological Capability (RTC) index, the study identifies a structural breakpoint at an Economic Complexity Index (ECI) level of around 0.63 in 2018. The middle-income trap can be reinterpreted as failing to surpass the economic complexity level corresponding to this structural breakpoint. In order to escape the middle-income trap, a systematic transition is required from a national innovation ecosystem centered on production capabilities to one that co-evolves with related technological capabilities, advancing towards a more complex economy.
Second, this study examines “technology-based product unrelated diversification” as a mechanism for leaping toward a more complex and sophisticated national economy. Evidence shows that the more advanced a country is, the more likely it is that when diversifying into new product areas with less relatedness to its existing export structure, those products are actually relatively related to its existing technological capabilities. Conversely, low-complexity countries appear to struggle with diversifying into more complex products, trapped in a path dependency trap where their limited technological capabilities are locked into low complexity products.
Third, this study quantifies the temporal dynamics (time-lag) between the diversification of related production capabilities and technological capabilities. Empirical analysis confirms that a dominant “learning by doing” pattern prevails, with production capabilities generally preceding technological capabilities by an average of approximately 2.356 years. This time-lag is not fixed but varies significantly depending on country- and sector(product or technology)-specific characteristics such as complexity.
In conclusion, the findings of this study enable a novel and interesting interpretation of the relationship between production capability and technological capability, and provide complementary evidence to the patterns of product-technology diversification according to national development stages discussed in the existing literature. Furthermore, this study has academic and practical implications for the scientification of science and technology innovation policy by providing a quantitative framework that enables the awareness of current positions and policy recommendations for product and technology diversification from the perspective of economic complexity.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

혁신과 기술 발전, 그리고 더 복잡한 상품 및 기술로의 다각화는 경제 발전의 주요 원동력이다. 더 복잡하고 정교한 국가 경제로의 성장을 위한 기존 연구들이 주로 단일 층의 네트워크(예: 상품 공간 또는 기술 공간)에 집중해 온 것과 달리, 본 연구는 글로벌 무역 데이터와 특허 데이터를 결합한 상품-기술 다층 네트워크 분석 프레임워크를 활용하여 생산역량과 기술역량 간의 역동적 상호작용을 분석한다.
본 연구는 다음과 같은 세 가지 핵심 영역을 다룸으로써 국가의 생산 및 기술역량이 국가 발전 단계에 따라 어떻게 진화하는지에 대한 포괄적인 정량적 증거를 제공한다. 첫째, 경제 복잡성 관점에서 중진국 함정을 재해석한다. 본 연구는 새로운 연관 기술역량(RTC) 지표를 제안함으로써, 2018년 기준 경제 복잡성 지수(ECI) 약 0.63 수준에서 발생하는 구조적 변화점(breakpoint)을 식별하였다. 중진국 함정은 이러한 구조적 변화점에 해당하는 경제적 복잡성 수준을 넘어가지 못하는 현상으로 재해석할 수 있으며, 중진국 함정을 벗어나기 위해서는 생산역량 중심의 국가 혁신 생태계에서 연관된 기술역량과 함께 공진화하며 더 복잡한 경제로 나아가는 국가 혁신 생태계로의 체계적 전환이 요구된다.
둘째, 더 복잡하고 정교한 국가 경제로의 도약을 위한 메커니즘으로서 “기술 기반 상품의 비연관 다각화”를 탐구한다. 선진국일수록 기존 수출 구조와는 연관성이 적은 새로운 상품 영역으로 다각화할 때, 사실 해당 상품은 이미 보유한 기술역량과 상대적으로 연관되어 있는 상품일 가능성이 높음을 입증하였다. 이는 산업 고도화를 위한 전략적 우회 경로를 제공한다. 반면, 저복잡성 국가들은 제한된 기술역량이 저부가가치 상품에 묶여 있는 경로 의존성 함정에 빠져 더 복잡한 상품으로의 다각화에 어려움을 겪는 것으로 나타났다.
셋째, 연관된 생산 및 기술역량 다각화 사이의 시간적 역학(time-lag)을 정량화한다. 실증 분석 결과, 전반적으로 생산역량이 기술역량보다 평균 약 2.356년 선행하는 “실행에 의한 학습(learning by doing)” 패턴이 지배적임을 확인했다. 이러한 시차는 고정된 것이 아니라 흡수 역량과 같은 국가 특성과 복잡성과 같은 해당 부문(상품 혹은 기술)의 고유한 특성에 따라 매우 이질적으로 나타난다.
결론적으로 본 연구의 결과들은 생산역량과 기술역량 사이 관계에 대한 새롭고 흥미로운 해석을 가능하게 하며, 기존 문헌에서 다루고 있었던 국가 발전 단계에 따른 상품-기술 다각화 패턴에 대한 보완적인 증거를 제시한다. 더 나아가, 본 연구는 경제적 복잡성 관점에서 상품 및 기술 다각화를 위해 현재 위치를 인식하고 정책적 제언을 할 수 있는 정량적 프레임워크로써 과학기술혁신정책의 과학화에 기여하는 학문적, 실용적 의의가 있다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract iii
• Contents vi
• List of Tables ix
• List of Figures x
• Chapter 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1 Background and Motivation 1
• 1.2 Outline of the Study 6
• Chapter 2. Literature Review 11
• 2.1 The Role of Technology in National Development and the Middle-Income Trap 11
• 2.2 Economic Complexity and the Principle of Relatedness: Path-dependent Diversification 21
• 2.3 Two Types of National Innovation Capabilities: Production and Technology 27
• 2.4 Research Gap 34
• Chapter 3. Timing of National Innovation Capability Transition to Escape the Middle-income Trap 36
• 3.1 Introduction 36
• 3.2 Data and Methodology 42
• 3.2.1 Data 42
• 3.2.2 Methodology and Variables 43
• 3.3 Results 49
• 3.3.1 Relationship between RTC and ECI 49
• 3.3.2 Identifying the Breakpoint Through Segmented Regression 55
• 3.3.3 Explaining the Middle-income Trap Using the Breakpoint 58
• 3.3.4 Validation: Comparison with GDP Per Capita 65
• 3.3.5 Robustness Check 67
• 3.4 Discussion and Sub-conclusion 72
• 3.4.1 Discussion 72
• 3.4.2 Sub-conclusion 76
• Chapter 4. Revealing Unrelated Product Diversification through Technology-based Cross-relatedness 79
• 4.1 Introduction 79
• 4.2 Data and Methodology 83
• 4.2.1 Data 83
• 4.2.2 Multi-layer (Product–Technology) Space 85
• 4.2.3 Relative Measure of Density and Cross-density 87
• 4.2.4 Categorizing Diversification Events 89
• 4.2.5 Empirical Regression Model 95
• 4.3 Results 98
• 4.3.1 Patterns of Unrelated Product Diversification 98
• 4.3.2 Patterns of Related Technology-based Product Diversification in Unrelated Product Diversification 101
• 4.3.3 Coupling Patterns of Technology Relatedness and Product Relatedness: Regression Analysis Results 105
• 4.3.4 Clues for Unrelated Product Diversification: Regression Analysis Results by the Four Types of Diversification 109
• 4.3.5 Robustness Check 113
• 4.4 Discussion and Sub-conclusion 114
• 4.4.1 Discussion and Implications 114
• 4.4.2 Limitation and Future Research 117
• 4.4.3 Sub-conclusion 118
• Chapter 5. Time-lag in Diversification between Production and Technological Capabilities 121
• 5.1 Introduction 121
• 5.2 Materials and Methods 126
• 5.2.1 Data 126
• 5.2.2 Conceptual Framework and Operational Definition of Time-lag 128
• 5.2.3 Cox Proportional Hazards Model with Time-varying Covariates 130
• 5.2.4 Robustness Check: SHAP Framework 140
• 5.3 Results and Discussion 141
• 5.3.1 The Overall Average Time-lag 141
• 5.3.2 Heterogeneity Across Product–technology Pairs 146
• 5.3.3 Determinants of Time-lag: Survival Analysis Results 149
• 5.3.4 Robustness Check: SHAP Analysis Results 157
• 5.3.5 Time-lag and the Principle of Relatedness 163
• 5.4 Sub-conclusion 168
• Chapter 6. Conclusion 172
• 6.1 Summary of the Study 172
• 6.2 Implications 174
• 6.3 Limitations and Directions of Future Research 175
• Bibliography 177
• Appendix 1: List of abbreviations (country codes) for country names 195
• Appendix 2: Results of segmented regression analysis by year (Chapter 3) 197
• Appendix 3: Historical development paths of specific countries in the ECI-RTC plot (Chapter 3) 200
• Appendix 4: Descriptive statistics and correlation for variables by the four diversification types (Chapter 4) 208
• Appendix 5: Average number of events and options for diversification by country and type (Chapter 4) 212
• Appendix 6: List of countries by national income group (Chapter 5) 216
• Appendix 7: Distribution of the average time-lag in the technology–product pair (Chapter 5) 217
• Appendix 8: Number of related product–technology diversification events by country (Chapter 5) 220
• Abstract (Korean) 223