입지 및 점포 특성이 편의점 매출과 생존에 미치는 영향 : 서울(강남)과 평택지역 상권비교를 중심으로

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 서울시 강남지역과 평택시를 대상으로 편의점의 매출 성과와
생존 구조가 어떠한 요인에 의해, 그리고 어떠한 메커니즘을 통해 결정
되는지를 실증적으로 규명하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 국내 편의점 산업은
1990년대 이후 대표적인 생활밀착형 소매업으로 급속한 성장을 이루어
왔으나, 최근에는 상권 포화, 과잉 출점, 임대료 및 인건비 상승, 소비
구조의 변화, 인구 고령화와 1인 가구 증가 등 복합적인 구조적 요인으로
인해 점포 간 매출 격차와 폐점률이 동시에 확대되는 국면에 진입하고 있다.
특히 동일한 브랜드, 동일한 운영 시스템하에 있는 점포라 하더라도 입지
조건, 배후 인구구조, 유동 인구 특성, 주거유형, 상업시설 집적도, 지역
경제 수준 등에 따라 매출 성과와 생존 기간이 극명하게 달라지고 있다는
점에서, 편의점 성과는 점포 내부 요인뿐만 아니라 도시 공간 구조와 지역
상권의 맥락적 특성에 의해 구조적으로 규정되는 문제라 할 수 있다.
그러나 기존의 편의점 관련 연구는 대부분 특정 시점의 매출을 종속변수로
설정한 단면적 분석에 집중됐으며, 점포가 시장에 진입한 이후 얼마나 오랫
동안 존속할 수 있는지, 그리고 어떠한 요인이 폐점 위험을 구조적으로
변화시키는지에 대한 동태적 분석은 상대적으로 부족하였다. 또한 기존
연구들은 대체로 단일 도시 또는 단일 유형의 상권을 분석 대상으로
설정함으로써, 도시 성장 단계나 상권 성숙도의 차이가 매출과 생존구조를
어떻게 다르게 변화시키는지에 대한 비교분석 역시 충분히 이루어지지
못하였다. 이에 본 연구는 성숙형 상권을 대표하는 서울 강남지역과 성장형
상권을 대표하는 평택시를 비교 대상으로 설정하여, 편의점의 매출과 생존을
동시에 분석하는 이중 성과 구조(Double Performance Structure)의 관점
에서 문제에 접근한다.
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본 연구는 2014년부터 2024년까지의 기간 동안 구축한 편의점 패널
자료를 활용하여, 총 700여 개 이상의 점포를 대상으로 실증 분석을 수행
하였다. 분석 방법으로는 매출 성과를 종속변수로 하는 다중회귀분석
(Multiple Regression Model)과, 폐점 위험을 종속변수로 하는 콕스 비례
위험모형(Cox’s Proportional Hazards Model)을 결합 적용하였다. 독립변수는
점포 특성(점포 면적, 24시간 운영 여부, 담배판매 여부, 본사 운영 여부
등), 입지·경쟁특성(지하철 접근성, 경쟁지수 등), 인구 특성(고령인구, 1인
가구, 근로자 수, 유동 인구 등), 경제 특성(아파트 가격), 시설 특성(상업
면적), 주거 특성(아파트 지역·연립지역 더미)으로 구성하였다. 이를 통해
매출과 생존에 영향을 미치는 요인의 구조적 차이를 지역별로 단계적으로
비교·검증하였다.
매출 분석 결과, 서울 강남지역은 고령인구, 1인 가구, 아파트 지역, 상업
시설 집적도 등 주거 기반·소득 기반 요인이 매출에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을
미치는 성숙형 상권 구조를 보였다. 반면 점포 면적, 유동 인구, 경쟁지수와
같은 운영 및 유동 중심 변수의 영향력은 제한적으로 나타나, 강남지역
편의점 매출이 이미 고정된 주거 기반 수요와 고소득 소비력에 의해
구조적으로 안정화된 포화형 상권 구조에 놓여 있음을 시사한다. 이에 비해
평택시는 고령인구, 1인 가구, 배후 세대, 종사자 수, 상업 면적 등 생활
기반 인구 규모 요인이 매출을 지배하는 전형적인 성장형 상권 구조를
나타냈다. 특히 평택시에서는 점포 면적과 상업 면적의 영향력이 상대적으로
크게 나타나, 신도시형 근린 상업지와 산업단지 배후 수요를 중심으로 한
생활형 소비 구조가 매출 형성의 중심축으로 작용하고 있음을 확인하였다.
생존분석 결과 또한 두 지역은 뚜렷하게 상이한 구조를 보였다. 서울 강
남지역의 편의점 생존은 매출, 담배판매 여부, 24시간 운영, 본사 임차, 아
파트 가격, 배후 세대, 아파트 주거 입지 등이 결합될 때 가장 안정적인
구조를 형성하는 것으로 나타났다.
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이는 강남지역 편의점 생존 구조가 고(高) 주거–고(高) 소득–운영 안정성
요인에 의해 지배되는 안정형 생존구조임을 의미한다. 반면 유동 인구
증가는 오히려 폐점 위험을 증가시키는 요인으로 작용하여, 강남지역의
생존 구조가 ‘고(高) 유동–고(高) 매출’이 아니라 ‘고(高) 주거–고(高) 소득
–고(高) 안정’ 구조임을 실증적으로 입증하였다.
평택시의 생존 구조는 강남과는 또 다른 양상을 보였다. 평택시에서는
매출, 점포 면적, 고령인구, 1인 가구, 배후 세대, 유동 인구, 상업 면적이
모두 폐점 위험을 유의하게 감소시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 경쟁지수와
상업시설 집적 역시 생존 안정성을 높이는 집적 외부경제 효과를 보였다. 이는
평택시가 아직까지는 생활 기반 인구 유입과 상업시설 확장이 동시에
진행 중인 성장형 상권 단계에 위치해 있음을 보여주는 결과라 할 수 있다.
즉 평택시의 편의점 생존은 고정된 고소득 소비 기반보다는 인구 유입,
유동 수요, 생활권 형성 과정 자체에 의해 구조적으로 지지되는 성장형
생존 구조를 갖는 것으로 해석된다.
또한 본 연구는 매출 결정요인과 생존 결정요인이 반드시 일치하지 않는
‘고매출–고위험’ 이중 구조가 일부 변수에서 존재함을 실증적으로 확인하였다.
종합하면, 본 연구는 편의점의 성과(매출)와 지속가능성(생존)을 공간적·
동태적·비교적 관점에서 통합 분석한 연구로서, 동일 업종이라 하더라도
도시의 성장 단계와 상권 성숙도에 따라 매출 및 생존을 지배하는 구조적
메커니즘이 근본적으로 다르게 작동함을 실증적으로 규명하였다.
이러한 연구 결과는 편의점의 출점 전략, 점포 구조조정, 폐점 리스크
관리, 그리고 도시 유형별 맞춤형 유통 정책 수립을 위한 실증적 근거를
제공한다는 점에서 중요한 학술적·정책적 시사점을 갖는다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 ····································································································1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 필요성 ································································· 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 ·························································································· 1
• 2. 연구의 필요성 ······················································································ 3
• 제2절 연구의 목적 및 연구문제 설정··················································· 7
• 1. 연구의 목적 ·························································································· 7
• 2. 연구문제 설정······················································································ 9
• 제3절 연구의 범위 및 대상 ··································································· 11
• 1. 연구의 범위 ························································································ 11
• 2. 연구의 대상 ························································································ 12
• 제4절 연구의 방법 및 구성 ··································································· 15
• 1. 연구의 방법 ························································································ 15
• 2. 연구의 구성 ························································································ 18
• 제2장 이론적 배경 및 선행연구 검토 ················································21
• 제1절 입지이론(Location Theory) ······················································· 21
• 1. Nelson 소매입지론 ············································································· 21
• 2. Reilly 소매인력법칙 ··········································································23
• 3. Huff 확률모형 ·····················································································25
• 4. Christaller 중심지이론 ····································································· 27
• 5. Hotelling 선형시장모형····································································29
• 6. Lösch 경제지역이론 ········································································· 31
• 7. 입지 및 점포특성의 중요성 ···························································· 35
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• 제2절 선행연구 검토 ··············································································· 38
• 1. 상업지역 입지특성과 매출 및 생존관련 선행연구 ···················· 38
• 2. 편의점의 입지특성과 매출 및 생존관련 선행연구 ···················· 46
• 제3절 연구의 차별성과 의의 ································································· 53
• 1. 연구의 차별성 ···················································································· 53
• 2. 연구의 의의 ························································································ 55
• 제3장 연구설계 및 가설 설정 ······························································ 58
• 제1절 연구모형 ························································································· 58
• 제2절 가설 설정······················································································· 60
• 제3절 변수의 조작적 정의 및 측정 방법 ··········································· 66
• 1. 변수의 조작적 정의 ·········································································· 66
• 2. 변수의 측정 방법 ·············································································· 70
• 제4절 분석모형 및 통계 방법 ······························································· 72
• 1. 다중회귀 분석(Multi Regression Model) ···································· 72
• 2. 생존분석(Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model) ····························· 73
• 제4장 실증 분석 ······················································································· 79
• 제1절 자료의 수집 및 표본 특성 ························································· 79
• 1. 자료의 수집 ························································································ 79
• 2. 표본의 특성 ························································································ 80
• 제2절 지역별 상권 특성 비교 ······························································· 84
• 1. 기술 통계량 분석(서울시 강남지역) ············································· 84
• 2. 기술 통계량 분석(평택시) ······························································· 88
• - ix -
• 제3절 다중회귀분석 모형을 활용한 매출 성과 분석······················· 92
• 1. 다중회귀 분석(Multi Regression Model) 추정 결과(강남) ····· 92
• 2. 다중회귀 분석(Multi Regression Model) 추정 결과(평택) ····· 97
• 3. 서울시(강남지역)과 평택시의 다중회귀분석 결과 비교 ········· 102
• 제4절 편의점 생존분석 ········································································· 105
• 1. Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model 추정 결과(강남) ··············· 105
• 2. Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model 추정 결과(평택) ··············· 112
• 3. 서울시(강남지역)과 평택시의 생존분석 비교 ··························· 118
• 제5절 소결론 ··························································································· 121
• 제5장 결론 및 시사점 ···········································································124
• 제1절 연구 결과 요약 ··········································································· 124
• 1. 주요 가설 검증 결과······································································ 124
• 2. 연구의 실증적 결과 ········································································ 126
• 제2절 학문적 의의 ················································································· 128
• 1. 유통관리(Distribution Management) 분야 ································ 128
• 2. 상권이론(Trade Area & Retail Location Theory) 분야 ······· 130
• 3. 소상공인 연구 분야 ········································································ 132
• 제3절 실무적 의의 ················································································· 135
• 제4절 연구의 한계 및 제언 ································································· 138
• 부록. 국내·외 편의점 현황 ··································································140
• 참고문헌 ····································································································158
• ABSTRACT ··························································································· 168