선박충돌 영향요인 기반 해상교통 위험도 평가모델 개발에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to develop an integrated maritime traffic risk assessment based on a weighted ship domain(MTRAS) by extracting and formalizing ship collision risk factors from AIS data.
First, the concept of ship domains and their applications are reviewed. Subsequently, collision risks associated with various encounter situations, as defined by the convention on the international regulations for preventing collisions at sea(COLREGs), are analyzed. Furthermore, the risk associated with relative speed is assessed using relative velocity vectors. In the development of the MTRAS model, the average overlap rate of the ship domain and the basic causation probability factors from IWRAP are utilized to normalize encounter situation risks and relative speed risks. These normalized values are then combined with specific weights for each factor to derive a comprehensive collision risk Index.
To validate the model, its applicability was examined in the coastal waters of Mokpo and Yeosu-Gwangyang. High risk areas identified by the model were analyzed using Kernel Density Estimation(KDE) and DBSCAN clustering. Spatial consistency was assessed by comparing the model results with historical collision data and existing risk assessment models, thereby demonstrating the reliability and practicality of MTRAS.
In conclusion, the MTRAS model, capable of identifying high risk collision locations, can support the phased response procedures of Vessel Traffic Services(VTS) and aid in establishing risk based policies for navigational safety inspections.