Enhancing flood resilience in South Sudan's Sudd Wetland : policy insights and mitigation strategies

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Flooding in South Sudan’s Sudd Wetland has become a significant environmental and socio-economic challenge, driven by the expansion of inundation and rapid land- use changes. This study assessed (i) land use and land cover (LULC) changes from 1990 to 2023, (ii) socio-economic impacts of major floods between 2013 and 2020, and (iii) policy gaps limiting effective flood management. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified to assess long-term ecological changes, while flood-impact information was obtained from OCHA and FSLC reports. To assess institutional readiness, policy documents—including the National Environment Policy, National Adaptation Program of Action, and Sudd Wetlands Management Strategy—were reviewed. The results reveal major landscape transformation: forest cover decreased from 32% in 1990 to 6% in 2023, while wetland and open-water areas increased significantly. These changes, driven by deforestation, grazing pressure, settlement growth, and persistent inundation, reduced the wetland’s natural flood-buffering capacity. Between 2013 and 2020, over one million people were affected by floods, particularly in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile States, where displacement, food insecurity, and infrastructure damage were most severe. Policy analysis indicates weak coordination, limited enforcement, and insufficient integration of flood risk considerations into land-use planning. The study recommends strengthening Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM) through community-based early warning systems, wetland restoration, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive livelihood strategies such as floating agriculture. Keywords: Sudd Wetland, Flooding, Land Use Change, Socio-Economic Impacts, IFRM, South Sudan.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

초록
남수단 수드(Sudd) 습지에서 발생하는 홍수는 범람 지역 확대와 급속한 토지 이용 변화로 인해 중대한 환경적 및 사회경제적 문제로 부상하고 있다. 본 연구는 (i) 1990년부터 2023년까지의 토지이용·토지피복(LULC) 변화, (ii) 2013–2020년 주요 홍수의 사회경제적 영향, (iii) 효과적인 홍수 관리를 제한하는 정책적 공백을 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 다년도에 걸친 Landsat 영상을 분류하여 장기 토지이용 변화를 분석하였으며, 홍수 영향 자료는 OCHA와 FSLC 보고서에서 수집하였다. 기관의 준비 수준을 평가하기 위해 국가환경정책, 국가기후변화적응계획(NAPA), 수드 습지 관리전략 등 주요 정책 문서를 검토하였다.
연구 결과, 1990년 32%였던 산림 면적이 2023년 6%로 감소하는 등 현저한 경관 변화가 나타났으며 습지 및 개방수역 면적은 크게 증가하였다. 이러한 변화는 벌채, 방목 압력, 정착지 증가, 지속적 범람으로 인해 수드 습지의 자연적 홍수 완충 기능을 약화시켰다. 2013~2020년 동안 100만 명 이상이 홍수의 영향을 받았으며, 특히 종글레이(Jonglei), 유니티(Unity), 어퍼나일(Upper Nile) 지역에서 이주, 식량 불안, 인프라 피해가 두드러졌다.
정책 분석 결과, 기관 간 조정 부족, 집행력 미흡, 홍수 위험 요소의 토지 이용 계획 반영 부족이 핵심 문제로 나타났다. 본 연구는 지역사회 기반 조기경보체계, 습지 복원, 회복력 있는 인프라 개발, 부유식 농업과 같은 적응형 생계 전략을 포함한 통합 홍수위험관리(IFRM)의 강화를 권고한다.
주요어: 수드 습지, 홍수, 토지 이용 변화, 사회경제적 영향, IFRM, 남수단

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background Information 1
• 1.2 Problem Statement and Justification 3
• 1.3 Research Questions 4
• 1.4 Research Objectives 4
• 1.5 Hypotheses 4
• 1.6 Significance of the study 5
• 1.7 Conceptual Framework 5
• CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 8
• 2.1 Overview 8
• 2.2 Recent Causes of Floods in the Sudd Wetland 10
• 2.2.1 Hydroclimatic Drivers 10
• 2.2.2 Local Wetland Processes 11
• 2.2.3 Anthropogenic Hydrology and Infrastructure 12
• 2.2.4 Synthesis and Knowledge Gaps 13
• 2.3 The Influence of Land Use Changes on Flood Risks in the Sudd Wetland 14
• 2.3.1 Conceptual pathways: From Land Use Land Cover Change to Flood Risk in the Wetland 14
• 2.3.2 Recent Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Dynamics in the Sudd and Upper White Nile Context 15
• 2.3.3 Vegetation loss (papyrus/grassland) and hydrologic regulation 17
• 2.3.4 Conversion to Bare and Built-Up Surfaces; Roads and Dykes as Flow Controls 19
• 2.3.5 Agricultural Expansion, Grazing Pressure, and Soil-Surface Change 20
• 2.3.6 Hydro-Climatic forcing interactions with LULC: Compound drivers of Sudd Floods 22
• 2.3.7 Feedback between flood alteration and ecosystem resilience in the Sudd 24
• 2.4 Socio-Economic Impact of increasing flood frequencies and severity in local communities in the Sudd Wetland 25
• 2.4.1 Impacts on Livelihoods and Food Security 25
• 2.4.2 Displacement, Migration, and Human Security 27
• 2.4.3 Health and Public Well-being 31
• 2.4.4 Economic Costs and Infrastructure Loss 34
• 2.4.5 Gendered and Socially Differentiated Impacts 36
• 2.5 Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM) and Policy Insights. 38
• 2.5.1 Understanding Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM) 38
• 2.5.2 Global Approaches to Integrated Flood Risk Management 41
• 2.5.3 Lessons from Flagship Applications 45
• 2.5.4 Application to the Sudd Wetland 49
• CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 51
• 3.1 Description of the Study Area 51
• 3.1.1 Soil Type, Vegetation, and the Community of Sudd Wetland 52
• 3.2 Research Design 53
• 3.3 Data Collection 53
• 3.3.1 Secondary data 53
• 3.3.2 Satellite Imagery and GIS 53
• 3.3.3 Hydrological Data and Historical Flood Maps 54
• 3.3.4 Climate and Rainfall Records 54
• 3.4 Data Analysis 54
• CHAPTER 4: RESULT AND DISCUSSION 58
• 4.1 Introduction 58
• 4.2 Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Sudd Wetland (1990–2023) 59
• 4.2.1 Overview 59
• 4.2.2 Temporal Dynamics of Land Cover (1990–2023) 59
• 4.2.3 Quantitative Changes (1990–2023) 67
• 4.2.4 Implications of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity 71
• 4.3 Objective 2: Socio-Economic Impacts of Flooding (2013–2020) 74
• 4.3.1 Flood occurrence, affected population, displacement 74
• 4.3.2 Spatial Distribution of Flood-Prone Settlements 77
• 4.3.3 Livelihood and Economic Impacts 79
• 4.4 Objective 3: Policy Recommendations via an IFRM Framework 82
• 4.4.1 Policy and Legal Context for the Sudd Wetland 82
• 4.4.2 Stakeholder Landscape for Integrated Flood Risk Management in the Sudd Wetland 85
• 4.4.3 Prioritization of IFRM Actions for the Sudd Wetland 90
• 4.4.4 Findings 93
• 4.4.5 Priority Action Package for the Sudd Wetland 94
• CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 98
• 5.1 Introduction 98
• 5.2 Summary of Major Findings 98
• 5.2.1 Land Use and Land Cover Change (1990-2023) 98
• 5.2.2 Socio-Economic Impacts of Flooding (2013-2020) 99
• 5.2.3 Institutional and Policy Context for Flood Management 99
• 5.3 Conclusion 100
• 5.4 Recommendations 101
• 5.5 Areas for Further Research 103
• REFERENCES 104