소규모 전원주택 단지 개발사업의 면적별 리스크 관리 연구 = A study on the area-based risk management in small-scale suburban housing complex development

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to systematically analyze the structure and relative importance of development risks in small-scale rural housing development projects according to lot size and project stage, and to propose practical risk management strategies from a developer’s perspective. While previous studies on rural housing have largely focused on residents’ characteristics and housing satisfaction, this research addresses the lack of empirical studies that examine development-stage risks, particularly in small-scale housing projects where financial and operational risks directly affect project feasibility.
The spatial scope of the study is limited to Giheung-gu, Yongin City, a representative suburban area in the Seoul metropolitan region with sustained demand for rural housing complexes. The analysis focuses on three representative lot sizes—200㎡, 248㎡, and 331㎡—commonly applied in small-scale rural housing developments. The content scope covers the entire project life cycle, including the planning and review stage, land acquisition stage, development and building permit stage, sales stage, construction stage, and completion and occupancy stage.
Methodologically, key risk factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and two rounds of focus group interviews (FGI) with industry experts. Based on these results, a multi-level decision-making model was constructed. A survey was then conducted with 50 experts who have more than ten years of experience in real estate development, construction, design, permitting, finance, and brokerage. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to evaluate the relative importance of risk factors, and the Fuzzy-AHP method was additionally applied to mitigate subjectivity and uncertainty in expert judgments.
The analysis results indicate that the importance and priority of risk factors differ significantly depending on both the development stage and lot size. In the planning and land acquisition stages, risks related to site suitability, land-use regulations, and financing conditions were found to be the most critical. During the sales stage, market demand volatility and unsold inventory risk emerged as key factors. Furthermore, as lot size increases, financial risks associated with infrastructure investment and delayed capital recovery become more pronounced.
This study contributes to the literature by quantitatively identifying stage-based and area-based risk structures in small-scale rural housing development projects. The findings provide a practical decision-support framework for developers to proactively manage risks and enhance project feasibility. In addition, the study expands the scope of rural housing research from a demand-oriented perspective to a development-process-oriented approach and offers valuable implications for future rural housing development projects and policy formulation.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 1
• 2. 연구의 목적 2
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 4
• 1. 연구의 범위 4
• 2. 연구의 방법 5
• 제3절 연구의 구성 및 체계 7
• 제2장 이론적 고찰 10
• 제1절 전원주택개발의 개요와 특성 10
• 1. 전원주택의 정의 및 유형 10
• 2. 전원주택개발의 유형 및 특징 17
• 3. 전원주택개발의 변천과정 23
• 제2절 전원주택개발 리스크의 개요 및 관리 절차 29
• 1. 리스크의 개념 29
• 2. 리스크의 분류 31
• 3. 리스크의 관리 절차 37
• 제3절 전원주택개발 단계별 리스크관리 38
• 1. 개발기획 단계 리스크 39
• 2. 개발준비 단계 리스크 40
• 3. 개발시행 단계 리스크 41
• 4. 관리·운영 단계 리스크 42
• 제4절 선행연구 고찰 및 차별성 43
• 1. 부동산개발 관련 연구 43
• 2. 전원주택 관련 연구 58
• 3. 연구의 차별성 64
• 제3장 연구대상지역 및 연구설계 66
• 제1절 FGI 분석결과 66
• 1. FGI 참여자 및 방법 66
• 2. FGI 분석결과 68
• 제2절 단계 및 분류별 항목과 연구모형 73
• 1. 규모별 전원주택 개발단계 분류 및 세부항목 73
• 2. 연구모형 75
• 제3절 분석 기법의 고찰 76
• 1. AHP 기법의 개요 76
• 2. AHP 기법의 적용 단계 78
• 3. 퍼지 이론(Fuzzy Theory) 83
• 제4장 분석결과 89
• 제1절 AHP 분석 89
• 1. 일관성 분석 89
• 2. 분류별 중요도 분석 90
• 3. 종합 중요도 분석 108
• 제2절 Fuzzy 분석결과 115
• 제3절 Fuzzy-AHP 분석결과 129
• 제4절 종합 분석결과 136
• 제5장 결론 및 시사점 149
• 제1절 연구의 요약 및 시사점 149
• 1. 연구의 요약 149
• 2. 시사점 151
• 제2절 연구의 한계 및 향후과제 152
• 참고문헌 154
• ABSTRACT 160
• 설문지 163