도심형 아울렛 매출액 결정요인 연구 : 아울렛 개별특성 및 패널모형을 중심으로 = A study on the determinants of sales in urban outlet malls : focusing on store-specific characteristics and the panel model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of the study is to systematically identify location characteristics, store characteristics, and external environmental factors that affect outlet sales, and to present the success strategy and differentiation of urban outlets. In particular, it was intended to expand the scope of research in the commercial real estate field academically and provide meaningful implications for the urban distribution industry by considering individual characteristics of outlets (location accessibility, size, tenant composition, etc.) and macro-environmental changes (consumption tendency, online sales expansion, etc.).
As a result of regression analysis, it was found that location accessibility and store components have a complex effect on sales of urban outlets. First of all, in terms of location, the location of the metropolitan area showed a significant positive (+) effect on sales, and the outlets located in the metropolitan area showed higher sales. Transportation accessibility is also important, and sales increase as the number of lines or connections to subway stations increases, and on the contrary, sales decrease as the distance to the subway station increases (-), confirming that access to public transportation is a key factor in sales.
In terms of store characteristics, tenant density (the ratio of the number of brands entered to the rental area) was the variable that had the greatest influence on sales, indicating that the higher the abundance and fidelity of the tenant composition, the more decisive it is to revitalize sales. In addition, the effect of complex entertainment facilities was remarkable, and the presence of food halls and large household goods stores showed a significant positive (+) effect over the entire period. The entry of movie theaters was positive (+) in the average of the entire period, but the significance tends to weaken during the pandemic and after that, so an interpretation is needed considering the context of each period.
Looking at the competition and complementary relationship within the commercial district, it was found that as the number of nearby outlets increased, the sales of target outlets decreased significantly, and competition between outlets in the same business type was strong.
In summary, various factors such as location factors (metropolitan area, access to public transportation, access to roads), physical characteristics (floor number, area), and surrounding competitive commercial areas (competitive and complementary facilities) work in combination, but the key finding of this study is that factors such as tenant intensity and accessibility are particularly influential and the competitive environment is sensitive only within the same industry (outlet).
The panel analysis results further investigated the changes in factors affecting sales and the effects of the external environment over time through analysis including time series data and macro variables. In therandom-effects (panel) model, interest rates showed a statistically significant positive (+) effect, and private consumption expenditure growth rates were also shown to increase sales (+). The economic growth rate is estimated to be negative (-), and the significance is weakened in the dynamic panel (system GMM), suggesting that structural factors such as online conversion and asset preference are mediated in the phase of economic expansion.
In the demographic variable, the youth population ratio (19–39) is estimated to be positive (+) and the aging index and total fertility rate are estimated to be negative (-), confirming that the age composition of the core customer group is structurally important to sales. It was confirmed that the increase in the proportion of online sales eroded (negative (-) sales of offline outlets. These results are generally consistent in dynamic analysis, and in system GMM, a positive (+) effect of interest rates, private consumption, and employment rates along with the inertia effect of lagged sales was observed, and the significance of some macro variables was gentle.
As a result of understanding the temporal trend and exogenous variable effects of urban outlet sales through panel analysis, it was confirmed that external factors such as changes in the macroeconomic environment and online market growth have a significant impact on outlet sales and that their influence is fluctuating over time. This shows that the performance of urban outlets is largely influenced by external economic and technological environments as well as internal location and structural factors.
The practical implications derived based on the results analyzed through this study are as follows.
First, as it has been confirmed that the location of urban outlets and securing transportation access are key factors in determining the success or failure of sales, strategies are required to select locations that can secure abundant demand in the city and increase public transport connectivity when developing and operating outlets in the future.
Second, confusion of outlets within the same commercial district should be avoided. As a result of the analysis, the presence of nearby competitive outlets has a fatal reduction effect on sales, so it is important to carefully review whether or not the commercial districts overlap when new stores open and maintain an appropriate opening interval.
Third, it is necessary to consider complex development with complementary commercial facilities such as department stores. Department stores around the outlet act as supplements that contribute to sales growth, and developing urban outlets into complex shopping spaces or linked to department stores and entertainment facilities can have a positive effect on revitalizing commercial districts.
Fourth, it is required to improve the diversity and professionalism of the composition of tenants inside the outlet. In particular, the effects of anchors such as food and beverage (F&B) and large household goods stores are consistently significant, and the significance of movie theaters has weakened since the pandemic, so it is necessary to review the relocation and alternative utilization according to the demand and regional conditions of each store.
Fifth, the size and structure of the outlet should be optimized to meet demand. As the analysis confirmed that the higher the number of business floors, the lower the efficiency, the more desirable a strategy to increase operational efficiency and shopping convenience through optimization of low-floor center and horizontal movement lines in an appropriate scale is more desirable than unreasonable enlargement.
Sixth, it is necessary to prepare for the trend of continuous decline in offline sales. During this study, sales per unit area of urban outlets showed a trend of decreasing year by year, which is interpreted as the influence of market saturation and online shopping substitution. Therefore, the industry should come up with a strategy to break through stagnant sales through innovation such as experience-based store operation and O2O connection.
Seventh, it is necessary to respond sensitively to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Interest rates showed a positive (+) relationship with sales according to empirical results, and the expansion of private consumption supports the increase in sales. A preemptive response is required to flexibly adjust promotions, category mix, and price policies according to changes in indicators such as economy and prices.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 1
• 2. 연구의 목적 5
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 7
• 1. 연구의 범위 7
• 2. 연구의 방법 9
• 제3절 연구의 구성 및 체계 12
• 제2장 이론적 고찰 15
• 제1절 상업용 부동산의 의의 15
• 1. 상업용 부동산의 개요 15
• 2. 대규모 상업용 부동산의 분류 및 특성 18
• 제2절 상업용 부동산 매출액 정의 및 영향요인 21
• 1. 상업용 부동산 매출액 개념 21
• 2. 상업용 부동산 매출액 영향요인 23
• 3. 주요 유통업태 매출액 추이와 유통환경 구조적 변화 28
• 제3절 아울렛의 개념과 현황 35
• 1. 아울렛의 정의와 변천 35
• 2. 국내 아울렛 현황 55
• 3. 도심형 아울렛 현황 57
• 제4절 매출액 결정 메커니즘에 관한 이론 60
• 1. 유통입지이론 60
• 2. 공간경제 및 상권내 집적·경쟁 메커니즘에 관한 고찰 64
• 3. 거시환경 및 사회구조적 수요 요인에 관한 이론적 고찰 67
• 4. 이론적 논의의 종합 69
• 제5절 선행연구 고찰 및 차별성 71
• 1. 상업용 부동산 매출액 관련 선행연구 71
• 2. 선행연구와의 차별성 87
• 제3장 연구모형 및 연구설계 91
• 제1절 분석방법 고찰 91
• 1. 하우스만(Hausman) 검정 91
• 2. 다중회귀분석 93
• 3. 패널분석 95
• 제2절 매출액과 변수의 고찰 100
• 1. 변수의 선정 100
• 2. 거시경제특성 변수와 매출액 104
• 3. 사회환경변화특성 변수와 매출액 109
• 4. 개별특성 변수와 매출액 122
• 제3절 변수의 조작적 정의 150
• 제4절 연구모형 및 가설 설정 153
• 1. 연구 모형의 구성 및 이론적 체계 153
• 2. 회귀분석 모형 및 연구가설 158
• 3. 패널 모형 및 연구가설 165
• 제4장 실증 분석 170
• 제1절 기초데이터 분석 170
• 1. 변수의 기술통계량 분석 170
• 2. 주요 변수 간 상관관계 분석 172
• 제2절 OLS 회귀모형 분석 결과 175
• 1. 기간별 회귀모형 분석 결과: 코로나19 전·중·후 변화 중심 175
• 2. 전 기간 통합 회귀모형 분석 결과 187
• 제3절 패널모형 실증분석 결과 191
• 1. 패널데이터 기초 분석 191
• 2. 하우스만 검정(Hausman Test) 결과 194
• 3. 확률효과모형(Random Effects Model) 분석 결과 195
• 4. 동적패널모형(시스템 GMM 모형) 분석 결과 198
• 제4절 실증분석 결과의 종합 및 시사점 207
• 1. 도심형 아울렛 매출액 결정요인의 시계열적 변동 분석 207
• 2. 도심형 아울렛 매출액 결정요인별 해석 214
• 3. 실증분석 결과의 통합적 고찰 222
• 4. 종합 분석 및 연구의 시사점 224
• 제5장 결론 227
• 제1절 연구결과 및 시사점 227
• 1. 연구결과 227
• 2. 시사점 231
• 제2절 연구의 한계 및 향후 과제 240
• 1. 연구의 한계 240
• 2. 향후 과제 241
• 【참고문헌】 243
• ABSTRACT 253