타지키스탄과 우즈베키스탄의 면화 산업 개혁과 무역정책에 대한 비교연구 = A Comparative Study of Cotton Industry Reforms and Trade Policies in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study compares and analyzes the trade policies and cotton- sector reforms of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with the aim of deriving policy implications for Tajikistan’s long-term export diversification and industrial upgrading. While Tajikistan has traditionally shown a high dependence on exports of raw cotton and aluminum, Uzbekistan has advanced its cotton–textile industry structure by moving away from a state-directed command system and implementing market-oriented reforms since 2017. By examining these contrasting reform trajectories, this study identifies how institutional design and reform sequencing have influenced the development of the value chain. The research relies entirely on secondary data analysis, using government strategy documents, statistical data, reports from international organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, ADB, and ILO, as well as existing academic literature. The analysis focuses on four key areas: (1) trade policy and tariff structures, (2) the governance of cotton production and marketing systems, (3) the development of the textile and apparel industries, and (4) participation in regional and international trade regimes. The findings show that Uzbekistan strengthened incentives for private investment and shifted its export structure toward higher-value textiles and garments through measures such as foreign exchange liberalization, tariff reductions, abolition of state production quotas, and the introduction of cotton–textile clusters. In contrast, Tajikistan has not achieved comparable outcomes due to partial reforms, institutional weaknesses, limited rural finance, and underdeveloped market infrastructure. Despite recent government efforts such as expanding investment incentives and establishing industrial zones, constraints such as insufficient processing capacity and lack of policy consistency continue to hinder progress. The comparative analysis suggests that Tajikistan can draw lessons from Uzbekistan in areas such as sustaining political commitment, defining a balanced role for the state, implementing complementary reforms in infrastructure and finance, enhancing farmer participation and land-use security, and promoting transparency and competition. Uzbekistan’s experience provides useful guidance for Tajikistan to pursue value-chain integration in a manner suited to its own conditions. Overall, this study contributes to the comparative literature on agricultural and trade structural transformation in Central Asia and offers practical insights for designing cotton-sector reforms in Tajikistan.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1장 서 론 10
• 1.2 연구의 내용 및 방법 11
• 1.3 논문의 구성 13
• 제 2장 타지키스탄의 경제 및 농업현황과 면화 산업의 배경 14
• 2.1 연구방법론 14
• 2.1.1 연구 설계 14
• 2.1.2 자료 출처 15
• 2.1.3연구 범위 16
• 2.2 타지키스탄의 경제현황 16
• 2.3 농업현황 20
• 2.3.1 타지키스탄 면화 산업의 배경 23
• 2.4 선행연구 검토 24
• 2.4.1 우즈베키스탄의 면화 산업에 관한 연구 27
• 제 3장 타지키스탄의 면화산업 위기와 우즈베키스탄의 수출구조 비교 30
• 3.1 면화 산업의 부채 위기 31
• 3.2 면화 부채 위기 해결 32
• 3.3 면화 수출 구조의 비교적 변화 35
• 3.3.1 우즈베키스탄의 면화 수출 구조 38
• VIII
• 제 4장 타지키스탄의 무역정책 및 산업 개혁의 개선 방향 43
• 4.1 타지키스탄 면화 산업 개혁 45
• 4.2 우즈베키스탄의 무역정책 변화 및 개혁 48
• 4.2.1 2016년 이후의 개방·자유화 추진 48
• 4.2.2 면화 및 섬유 부문 개혁 51
• 4.3 우즈베키스탄–타지키스탄 개혁 비교의 시사점 53
• 제 5장 결론 61
• 5.1 한계점 및 향후 연구 방향 62
• 참고문헌 64