원산지결정기준 엄격성이 특혜배제에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Impact of Rules of Origin Stringency on Preferential Tariff Denial

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

While the use of preferential tariffs under free trade agreements (FTAs) has expanded with the proliferation of FTAs, complex or stringent rules of origin often impose significant compliance burdens on firms and may result in the denial of preferential treatment during post-clearance origin verification. This study empirically examines how the stringency of product-specific rules of origin affects the likelihood of preferential tariff denial. Using Korea Customs Service’s origin verification records from 2017 to 2021, a logistic regression model was estimated with preferential denial as the dependent variable and variables such as the stringency index, import value, verification type, certification method, and industry classification as independent variables. Probit and linear probability models (OLS) were additionally applied to conduct robustness checks. The empirical results indicate a U-shaped nonlinear relationship between the stringency index and preferential denial. Specifically, lower levels of stringency are associated with reduced denial risk, whereas beyond a certain threshold, higher stringency increases the difficulty of satisfying rules of origin, raising the likelihood of denial. The same pattern is observed when the analysis is restricted to cases involving substantive criteria (PSR = 1), demonstrating that the complexity and rigor of rules of origin structurally influence actual verification outcomes. Furthermore, larger import volumes are associated with a lower risk of denial, confirming statistical differences in origin-management capacity across firm sizes. This study is the first to empirically link the stringency of rules of origin to actual preferential tariff denial outcomes. Its findings provide important implications for establishing appropriate product-specific rules of origin, enhancing FTA utilization, and improving risk-management strategies in origin verification. Keywords: origin verification, rule-of-origin stringency index, preferential tariff denial, product-specific rules of origin

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론 1
• 제1절 연구 배경 및 목적1
• 제2절 연구 방법 및 범위2
• 제2장 이론적 배경 및 선행연구4
• 제1절 원산지개요 및 원산지규정 4
• 제2절 원산지규정의 엄격성 지수 30
• 제3장 한국이 체결한 FTA 원산지 엄격성 동향 38
• 제1절 협정별 원산지결정기준 분포 현황38
• 제2절 산업별 원산지 엄격성 동향42
• 제4장 연구방법론 58
• 제1절 로지스틱회귀분석 개요 58
• 제2절 분석모형 및 자료63
• 제5장 분석 결과 73
• 제1절 기술통계 및 모형추정 개요 73
• 제2절 엄격성지수가 특혜배제에 미치는 영향 분석 결과74
• 제3절 모형적합도 및 예측력 평가 86
• 제4절 모형 강건성검증(Robustness Check) 89
• 제6장 결론 및 시사점 93
• 참고문헌96