계층분석법(AHP) 기반 의사결정을 통한 논 지역 최적 메탄 감축 방안 = Optimal Methane Mitigation Strategies in Rice Paddies Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to identify and prioritize optimal technological, policy, and economic strategies to effectively reduce methane (CH4) emissions from rice paddy cultivation, thereby contributing to the realization of carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector. To achieve this, a scientific and quantitative evaluation framework based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed, using four multidimensional criteria: effectiveness, economic feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptability.
A comprehensive review of both domestic and international methane mitigation practices was conducted, leading to the selection of candidate strategies, including Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), organic matter management, and the dissemination of low-methane rice cultivars as technological alternatives. Policy and economic instruments such as emissions trading schemes, direct payment incentives, low-methane certification programs, and local government partnerships were also incorporated. The AHP model was structured in four hierarchical levels (overall goal – evaluation criteria – support type – specific alternatives), and expert evaluations were conducted across two groups: academic researchers and policy practitioners, allowing for the integration of diverse perspectives.
The results indicate that AWD was identified as the highest priority among technological options, while emissions trading and direct payments were highly rated in policy and economic categories, respectively. Notable differences emerged between expert groups: researchers emphasized technical efficacy and environmental impact, whereas policy experts focused on institutional feasibility and farmer participation. A scenario-based simulation was subsequently conducted, combining high-priority strategies. The scenario integrating AWD, direct payments, and emissions trading yielded the greatest methane reduction and economic benefits.
This study provides an integrated, field-applicable mitigation model that reflects both scientific rigor and practical viability. By combining AHP-based policy evaluation with simulation analysis, the research establishes a strategic framework that can support agricultural climate policy formulation, carbon market integration, and region-specific action plans. The methodological approach and findings offer meaningful contributions toward the achievement of carbon neutrality in agriculture and can be expanded to other crops or environmental sectors.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서 론 1
• 1.1 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 1.2 연구의 내용 및 범위 4
• Ⅱ. 문헌 연구 5
• 2.1 국내외 탄소중립 관련 실천 동향 5
• 2.2 논 지역에서의 온실가스 배출 기작 및 감축기술 14
• 2.3 AHP 기법의 개념 및 이론 17
• 2.4 선행연구 분석 22
• 2.5 기존 연구와 본 연구의 차별성 25
• Ⅲ. 연구 방법론 30
• 3.1 연구 설계 및 분석 개요 30
• 3.2 논 메탄 감축 대안 도출 및 평가기준 수립 방법론 31
• 3.3 AHP 기법 적용 절차 및 분석 방법 35
• Ⅳ. 논 메탄 배출 감축 기술 및 전략 대안 도출 39
• 4.1 현행 논 메탄 저감 기술 및 정책, 경제적 현황 분석 39
• 4.2 포커스 그룹 인터뷰(FGI) 및 서면 질의응답 결과 41
• 4.3 논 메탄 저감 대안 도출 및 평가 기준 설정 43
• 4.4 AHP 기법을 통한 최적 감축 대안 평가 55
• Ⅴ. 최적 대안조합의 메탄 감축 시뮬레이션 80
• 5.1 시뮬레이션 개요 및 목적 81
• 5.2 시뮬레이션 방법론 및 분석결과 81
• 5.3 시나리오별 경제 환산 분석 85
• 5.4 시사점 및 실행방안 86
• Ⅵ. 결 론 88
• 6.1 연구의 종합적 결론 88
• 6.2 향후 연구방향 90
• 참고문헌 91
• Abstract 104
• 부록 106