The Impact Mechanism of Digitalization on the Resilience of China’s Manufacturing Supply Chains under the Context of Sino-US Trade Frictions

국문 초록 (Abstract)

전 세계적인 지정학적 갈등의 심화와 국제 통상구조의 급격한 재편 속에서 미·중 무역마찰은 글로벌 공급망의 안정성과 재편에 중대한 영향을 미치는 핵심 외생 변수로 부상하고 있다. 외부 충격의 빈발, 시장 불확실성 확대, 국제 경쟁 심화 등 복합적 위험 요인이 증가함에 따라 중국 제조업 기업은 국제화 과정에서 그 어느 때보다 더 큰 도전에 직면하고 있다. 공급망의 취약성과 외부 의존도는 기업의 운영 연속성과 산업 안전에 대한 위험을 가중시키고 있으며, 변화하는 국제 환경 속에서 유연성·신속한 대응력·자기 회복 능력을 갖춘 공급망 체계를 구축하는 것은 제조업 고도화의 핵심 과제로 부상하고 있다. 국가 정책 역시 「14차 5개년 계획」을 통해 산업·공급망의 안정성과 회복탄력성 제고를 명확히 강조하고 있다.
디지털화는 공급망 회복탄력성을 강화하는 새로운 기술적·조직적 경로를 제공한다. 디지털화는 단순한 정보화나 자동화를 넘어, 데이터를 핵심 생산요소로 활용하고 알고리즘을 자원 배분 메커니즘으로 삼으며, 플랫폼 기반 협업을 중심으로 하는 시스템적 전환을 의미한다. 인공지능, 클라우드 컴퓨팅, 사물인터넷, 빅데이터 분석 기술의 확산과 함께 디지털화는 외부 위험 대응, 자원 최적화, 산업 생태 재구성을 이끄는 중요한 동력으로 부상하고 있다.
그러나 기존 연구는 디지털 전환이 기업 성과·혁신 효율·산업 업그레이드에 미치는 영향에 주로 초점을 두고 있으며, 디지털화가 기업 내부 역량을 어떻게 재구성하여 공급망 회복탄력성을 강화하는지, 특히 미·중 무역마찰이라는 특수한 환경에서 어떠한 경로로 작용하는지에 대한 실증적 분석은 부족하다.
이에 본 연구는 중국 제조업 기업을 대상으로 디지털화 수준이 공급망 회복탄력성에 미치는 영향과 그 작동 메커니즘을 체계적으로 규명하였다. 자원기반이론(RBV), 동태적 역량이론(DCV), 자본순환이론(CCT), 정보처리이론(IPT), 위험관리이론(RMT) 및 산업분업이론(DLT)을 종합적으로 고려하여, 디지털화가 기업의 감지·통합·재구성 능력을 강화함으로써 공급망 회복탄력성을 제고한다는 분석 틀을 구축하였다. 또한 미·중 무역마찰을 외생적 충격 요인으로 설정하여 외부 불확실성이 디지털화 효과를 어떻게 조절하는지 검증하고, 디지털화가 작업 효율 개선을 통해 공급망 회복탄력성에 간접적으로 영향을 미치는 중개 경로를 분석하였다.
연구 설계 측면에서, 본 연구는 디지털 기초·디지털 운영·디지털 혁신의 세 차원에서 기업 디지털화를 측정하고, 2012~2024년 중국 A주 제조업 상장기업 데이터를 기반으로 고정 효과(FE) 모형, 패널 회귀, PSM 매칭 및 매개 효과 분석을 종합적으로 활용하여 가설을 검증하였다.
주요 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 디지털화 수준은 공급망 회복탄력성에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미친다. 디지털 기초는 정보 투명성과 위험 감지 능력을 향상시켜 저항력을 높이고, 디지털 운영은 실시간 연계성과 프로세스 최적화를 통해 적응력을 강화하며, 디지털 혁신은 지식 공유와 플랫폼 협업을 촉진하여 회복력을 제고하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 미·중 무역마찰은 디지털화와 공급망 회복탄력성 간의 관계를 유의하게 조절하며, 무역마찰이 심화될수록 기업의 디지털 역량 의존도가 높아져 디지털화의 긍정적 효과가 더욱 확대된다. 셋째, 작업 효율은 디지털화와 공급망 회복탄력성 간의 관계에서 부분 매개효과를 나타내어, 디지털화가 프로세스 개선과 자원 배분 효율 향상을 통해 간접적으로 공급망 안정성과 대응력을 제고함을 확인하였다.
본 연구의 이론적 기여는 세 가지로 요약된다. (1) 디지털화의 3차원 구조를 기반으로 공급망 회복탄력성의 세 요소(저항·적응·회복)에 대한 작용 경로를 제시하여 이론적 설명력을 확장하였다. (2) 미·중 무역마찰을 상황 변수로 도입하여 외부 환경 불확실성의 조절 메커니즘을 규명하였다. (3) 자본순환이론·정보처리이론·위험관리이론 등과 연계하여, 디지털화가 내부 운영능력과 자원 통합능력을 강화함으로써 회복탄력성을 제고하는 내재적 논리를 실증하였다.
본 연구는 높은 불확실성 환경에서 제조업 기업이 디지털화를 통해 공급망 거버넌스를 강화하고 산업 안전성을 확보하는 데 중요한 실질적 시사점을 제공한다. 향후 연구는 글로벌 가치사슬(GVC) 관점에서 다양한 무역환경에 따른 디지털 역량의 동태적 변화를 보다 심층적으로 탐구할 필요가 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In the context of intensifying global geopolitical tensions and profound adjustments in the international trade system, Sino–US trade frictions have become a major external factor influencing the stability and restructuring of global supply chains. Amid frequent external shocks, weakening market expectations, and intensifying international competition, Chinese manufacturing firms are confronted with unprecedented challenges in their process of internationalization. The vulnerability and external dependence of supply chains significantly increase operational uncertainty and industrial security risks. How to build supply chains with high flexibility, rapid responsiveness, and self-recovery capacity has thus become a key issue for the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector. The national “14th Five-Year Plan” explicitly emphasizes “enhancing the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains,” highlighting the strategic importance of supply chain resilience at the macro-policy level.
The ongoing wave of digitalization provides new technological and organizational pathways to strengthen supply chain resilience. Digitalization is not merely an extension of informatization or automation; rather, it constitutes a systemic transformation driven by data as a key production factor, algorithms as allocation mechanisms, and platform-based collaboration as the core organizational form. With the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, IoT, and big data analytics, digitalization has become a significant force enabling firms to mitigate external risks, optimize resource allocation, and reshape industrial chain ecosystems. However, existing research has primarily focused on the impact of digital transformation on firm performance, innovation efficiency, or industrial upgrading. Systematic theoretical and empirical analysis remains limited regarding how digitalization enhances supply chain resilience through internal capability reconstruction, particularly under the contextual condition of Sino–US trade frictions.
To fill this gap, this study investigates the mechanisms through which digitalization affects supply chain resilience in Chinese manufacturing enterprises. Drawing on the resource circulation theory, dynamic capability theory, and contingency theory, this study proposes an analytical framework in which digitalization—treated as a strategic organizational resource—enhances resilience by strengthening firms’ sensing, integration, and reconfiguration capabilities. Furthermore, Sino–US trade frictions, as a major contextual shock, are incorporated into the framework as a moderating variable that may alter the magnitude of digitalization’s effects. In addition, the study posits that digitalization may influence supply chain resilience indirectly through improvements in operational efficiency.
In terms of research design, this study measures digitalization from three dimensions—digital infrastructure, digital operation, and digital innovation—to construct a comprehensive index that captures data infrastructure, intelligent processes, and innovation ecosystems. Based on data from 2012 to 2024 for Chinese A-share manufacturing firms, combined with digital disclosure texts, financial indicators, and supply chain characteristics, the study employs fixed-effects models, panel regressions, propensity score matching (PSM), and mediation analysis to empirically test the hypotheses.
The empirical findings are threefold. First, digitalization significantly enhances supply chain resilience. Specifically, digital infrastructure improves firms’ information transparency and risk identification capabilities, strengthening their resistance to external shocks; digital operation enhances supply chain flexibility and adaptability through integrated processes and real-time responsiveness; and digital innovation contributes to recovery and innovation resilience by facilitating knowledge sharing and platform collaboration. Second, Sino–US trade frictions exert a significant moderating effect: when trade tensions intensify and external uncertainty increases, the dependence on digital capabilities rises, amplifying the positive impact of digitalization on resilience. Third, operational efficiency plays a partial mediating role between digitalization and supply chain resilience. Digitalization improves process efficiency and resource allocation, thereby enhancing supply chain stability and responsiveness—supporting the pathway of “Digitalization → Operational Efficiency → Supply Chain Resilience.”
Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of digitalization varies across firm types. Large manufacturing firms—with greater investment capacity, richer data resources, and more mature governance capabilities—benefit more significantly. Although small and medium-sized firms face resource constraints, they exhibit potential advantages in adaptability and innovation-driven resilience. Moreover, export-oriented firms rely more heavily on digital tools for real-time response and intelligent coordination when confronted with trade disruptions.
The theoretical contributions of this study are threefold:
(1)By decomposing digitalization into three dimensions, the study systematically uncovers its distinct effects on the resistance, adaptability, and recovery dimensions of supply chain resilience, enriching the theoretical understanding of resilience formation mechanisms.
(2)By incorporating Sino–US trade frictions into the analytical framework, the study highlights the contextual moderating role of external uncertainty, offering a dynamic perspective for resilience research.
(3)By introducing operational efficiency as a mediating variable, the study reveals the internal logic through which digitalization improves resilience via enhanced operational and resource integration capabilities.
These findings provide practical implications for Chinese manufacturing firms seeking to achieve stable operations in high-uncertainty environments. Firms should (a) strengthen digital infrastructure and operational platforms, (b) adopt data-driven decision-making mechanisms, and (c) build flexible risk-response systems and multi-layered collaboration networks to enhance supply chain agility and sustainability. Future studies may expand to a global value chain perspective to explore the dynamic evolution of digital capabilities under diverse trade environments and cross-national institutional conditions.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. Introduction 1
• 1. Research Background and Significance 1
• 1.1 Research Background 1
• 1.2 Research Significance 4
• 1.2.1 Theoretical Significance 4
• 1.2.2 Practical Significance 6
• 2. Research Content and Framework 7
• 2.1 Research Content 7
• 2.2 Research Framework 10
• 3. Research Framework and Methodology 11
• 3.1 Research Framework 11
• 3.2 Research Methodology 13
• 4. Main Contributions and Research Innovations 15
• II. Literature Review 18
• 1. Review of Research on Digitalization 18
• 1.1 Research Related to Digitalization 18
• 1.1.1 Evolution of Digitalization 18
• 1.1.2 Concept and Connotation of Digitalization 20
• 1.1.3 Economic Effects Triggered by Digitalization 21
• 1.2 Measurement of Digitalization 25
• 1.2.1 Macro-Level Measurement of Digitalization 25
• 1.2.2 Micro-Level Measurement of Digitalization 27
• 2. Research on Supply Chain Resilience 29
• 2.1 Origins and Connotations of Resilience 29
• 2.2 Concept and Components of Supply Chain Resilience (SCR) 31
• 2.3 Measurement of Supply Chain Resilience 33
• 3. Relationship Between Digitalization and Supply Chain Resilience 36
• 4. Impact of Sino–US Trade Frictions 39
• 5. Literature Review and Commentary 42
• III. Conceptual Definitions and Theoretical Foundations 46
• 1. Definition of Core Concepts 46
• 1.1 Digitalization 46
• 1.2 Supply Chain Resilience 49
• 1.3 Sino–US Trade Frictions 51
• 1.4 Working Efficiency 54
• 2. Theoretical Framework 57
• 2.1 Theoretical Foundations of Digitalization 57
• 2.2 Theoretical Foundations of Supply Chain Resilience 66
• IV. Digitalization and Supply Chain Resilience in Manufacturing 74
• 1. Problem Statement 74
• 2. Theoretical Analysis and Hypothesis Development 76
• 2.1 Digitalization and Supply Chain Resilience in Manufacturing Firms 76
• 2.2 Moderating Effect of Sino–US Trade Frictions 79
• 2.3 Mediating Role of Working Efficiency 82
• 3. Research Design 85
• 3.1 Sample Selection and Data Sources 85
• 3.2 Variable Selection and Definitions 88
• 3.3 Model Construction 99
• 4. Empirical Analysis 101
• 4.1 Descriptive Statistics 101
• 4.2 Correlation Analysis 104
• 4.3 Multicollinearity Test 107
• 4.4 Regression Analysis 108
• 5. Robustness Tests 110
• 5.1 Parallel Trend Test 110
• 5.2 Placebo Test 113
• 5.3 PSM–DID Analysis 116
• 6. Mechanism Analysis 120
• 6.1 Moderating Effect of Sino–US Trade Frictions 120
• 6.2 Mediating Effect of Working Efficiency 123
• 7. Section Summary 127
• V. Conclusions and Prospects 130
• 1. Main Research Findings 130
• 2. Management Implications 135
• 3. Policy Recommendations 137
• 4. Research Limitations and Future Prospects 139
• References 142
• 국문요지 151