해안도시의 복합수재해 특성과 회복탄력성 강화 방안 = Comprehensive Analysis of Compound Water-Related Disasters in Coastal Cities and Strategies for Enhancing Resilience

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Coastal cities are important settlement spaces where more than 40% of the world’s population resides and serve as hubs for industry, logistics, and tourism. However, risks of flooding and inundation are intensifying due to overlapping disaster factors such as sea-level rise, increased frequency of extreme rainfall, storm surges, tidal variations, and typhoons driven by climate change. These compound flood disasters generate much greater uncertainty and damage than single disasters, threatening the sustainability and safety of coastal cities. Therefore, it is an urgent task to understand the characteristics of compound flood hazards and to establish comprehensive response strategies that can enhance resilience.
This study aims to mitigate damage to coastal cities by analyzing the occurrence mechanisms and characteristics of coastal flooding and by conducting inundation analysis and disaster risk assessment in Pohang City, which has previously suffered severe flood damage, in order to establish an optimal resilience plan. Specifically, under climate change scenario conditions, flood volumes caused by sea-level rise, river flooding, and limited drainage capacity of sewer systems were used as inputs for simulating inundation with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The variation of inundation depth at major locations simulated by the two-dimensional model ranged from 0.195 to 1.299 m when both internal and external water influences were considered under the tidal levels of Typhoon Hinnamnor. When applying the maximum tidal levels projected under climate change, the inundation depth ranged from 0.284 to 1.552 m.
In the event of coastal flood damage, the study quantified the scale of damage in the Naengcheon watershed by integrating system dynamics and GIS through an Access DB-based data processing method. The inundation depth results from the two-dimensional model were mapped at the GIS grid unit and then input as variable values into the Vensim model. Using a stock–flow diagram analysis, inundation area, duration of flooding, proportion of vulnerable population, and property damage were quantified to assess the inundation characteristics and damage scale of the Naengcheon watershed. Furthermore, by applying the integrated system dynamics and GIS-DB model, flood-prone areas were spatially visualized under scenarios for the present, 40 years, 70 years, and 100 years into the future. The results showed a gradual expansion of flood-prone areas over time, reflecting the compound effects of increased rainfall intensity and rising river water levels due to climate change.
A flood risk perception survey was conducted to identify public awareness and attitudes toward flood risks, with 186 citizens participating. The survey covered experiences of flood damage, risk perception, response attitudes, and policy demands, and it was designed to serve as baseline data for future flood-response policy development.The results revealed that most respondents recognized climate change as a factor exacerbating flood risks. About 77% answered that the impact of climate change was significant, while 79% cited heavy rainfall as the main cause of flooding. Although most participants rated the accuracy of the flood forecasting system as moderate to high, 16% considered it low, indicating persisting distrust. Only 21% evaluated local governments’ flood preparedness positively, reflecting limited public trust in their response capacity. More than half of respondents reported being unaware of the operation of local community disaster prevention groups, but 47.3% expressed willingness to participate if given the opportunity, revealing a gap between awareness and participation. In summary, citizens perceived flood risks as a serious and realistic threat, particularly in the context of climate change. While many expressed concern over the likelihood of flooding, they also showed limited knowledge of response measures and distrust toward disaster management systems. Given that heavy rainfall, river flooding, and urban inundation were identified as key risk factors for coastal flood response, improvements to urban drainage systems and river management are needed. In addition, raising awareness of community disaster prevention groups and encouraging public participation can strengthen community-based disaster response systems.
To prepare for climate change, disaster management should be expanded beyond prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery to resilience enhancement within an integrated life-cycle perspective, linking national resilience policies with engineering solutions to establish successful models. Legal and institutional frameworks for resilience planning should be established to guide implementation, and cost–benefit analysis should be used to select optimal mitigation measures. To this end, key strategies include strengthening infrastructure against compound flood hazards, promoting digital-based real-time disaster management technologies, designing tailored resilience strategies at the local level, leveraging leadership and human resources of municipal governments, building inclusive governance that accounts for vulnerable populations, and ensuring the sustainability of policy implementation systems. Ultimately, constructing flood-resilient coastal cities requires innovative approaches that integrate both soft and hard countermeasures, supported by continuous investment.
Compound flood hazards in coastal cities stem from multiple causes, trigger widespread and cascading damage, and are increasingly exacerbated by climate change.
Addressing such complex risks cannot rely solely on strengthening disaster prevention infrastructure but requires multidimensional approaches encompassing urban planning, legal and institutional reforms, social participation, and advanced technologies. Ultimately, a paradigm shift toward resilience-centered strategies is essential so that coastal cities can rapidly recover their functions after disasters and continue pursuing sustainable development.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서 론 1
• 1.1 연구배경 및 목적 1
• 1.2 연구동향 3
• 1.3 연구범위 8
• 제 2 장 기후변화에 의한 해안지역 복합재해 특성 11
• 2.1 기후변화를 고려한 해상 변화 11
• 2.2 국내외 해안지역의 복합재해 17
• 2.3 해수면 상승영향 분석 26
• 제 3 장 해안지역 복합재해에 의한 침수해석 33
• 3.1 대상유역의 GIS 분석 33
• 3.2 유역-하구부에 대한 계산격자망 구축 42
• 3.3 2차원 유한체적모형의 적용 46
• 3.4 2차원 침수해석 결과 53
• 제 4 장 시스템 다이내믹스에 의한 침수피해 분석 71
• 4.1 시스템 다이내믹스 구조와 행태 71
• 4.2 인과루프 관계도와 저량-흐름 다이어그램 77
• 4.3 복합재해에 의한 인명 및 재산피해 분석 86
• 제 5 장 복합수재해에 회복탄력성 강화방안 97
• 5.1 홍수피해에 대한 주민의식조사 97
• 5.2 주요 국가별 회복탄력성 확보 전략 108
• 5.3 복합수재해에 대비한 적응능력 강화 116
• 5.4 지방자치단체의 재해 대응능력 강화 122
• 5.5 국내 해안도시에서의 회복탄력성 강화 방안 128
• 제 6 장 결 론 132
• 참 고 문 헌 136
• 영문초록 143