X-12ARIMA와 X-13A-S를 이용한 주택가격 계절성의 지역적 이질성 비교 분석 = A Comparative Analysis of Regional Heterogeneity in Housing Price Seasonality Using X-12-ARIMA and X-13A-S

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the seasonal characteristics of the housing purchase price index for
Korea and its 17 regions, evaluating the validity and limitations of the current X-12-ARIMA
seasonal adjustment. At the national level, the index is dominated by a strong long-term
trend with no statistically significant seasonality. However, the current seasonally adjusted
index was confirmed to provide critical qualitative information for identifying market turning
points.

In-depth regional analysis revealed significant heterogeneity, with only Seoul exhibiting
statistically significant seasonality among the 17 regions. Based on these findings, this study
argues for the necessity of introducing a new seasonal adjustment index that reflects regional
heterogeneity. By applying the advanced X-13-ARIMA-SEATS methodology to generate and
compare new regional indices against the existing one, the validity and utility of publishing
region-specific seasonally adjusted indices are verified.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1 서론 1
• CHAPTER 2 이론적 배경 3
• 2.1 주택가격매매지수 3
• 2.2 X-12-ARIMA 모형 5
• 2.3 X-13-ARIMA-SEATS 모형 7
• CHAPTER 3 전국 주택가격매매지수 계절조정 8
• 3.1 전국 주택가격매매 원지수 계절성 분석 8
• 3.2 전국 주택가격매매 원지수와 계절조정지수 비교 14
• CHAPTER 4 주택가격의 지역적 이질성 분석 19
• 4.1 지역별 계절성 분석의 필요성 20
• 4.2 매매가격의 지역적 이질성 21
• 4.3 서울특별시의 X-12ARIMA 계절조정 22
• CHAPTER 5 X-13A-S를 이용한 신규 계절조정지수 제안 24
• 5.1 신규 지수 도입의 필요성 24
• 5.2 서울특별시의X-13ARIMA-SEATS 계절조정 26
• CHAPTER 6 결론 30
• REFERENCES 32
• ABSTRACT (in ENGLISH) 33