분 단위 강우자료를 이용한 도시 및 비도시 지역의 극치 강우 특성 분석과 임의시간-고정시간 확률강우량 평가 = Analysis of Extreme Short-Duration Rainfall Characteristics in Urban and Non-Urban Areas Using Minute-Scale Rainfall Data and Evaluation of Arbitrary- and Fixed-Time Probable Rainfall

국문 초록 (Abstract)

지구 온난화에 따른 기후변화와 급격한 도시화의 영향으로 극한 강우의 강도는 지난 수십년간 지속적으로 증가해 왔으며, 향후에도 이러한 경향이 강화될 것으로 전망된다. 국내에서도최근 기록적인 강우 사례가 빈발하며, 이에 따른 도시 침수와 대규모 피해가 반복적으로 발생하고 있다. 이러한 극한 강우는 짧은 시간에 집중되는 특성을 가지며, 도시 배수 체계를 단시간내 임계 상태에 도달하게 함으로써 대응 가능 시간을 크게 단축시키는 것으로 보고되고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Climate change driven by global warming and rapid urbanization has led to
a sustained increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall over recent decades,
and this tendency is expected to further intensify in the future. In Korea, rec
ord-breaking rainfall events have occurred more frequently in recent years, re
peatedly causing urban inundation and large-scale damage. Such extreme rain
fall is characterized by highly concentrated peaks over short durations, which
can drive urban drainage systems to critical conditions within a short time and
substantially reduce the available lead time for response.
In this study, minute-resolution rainfall observations from disaster-prevention
meteorological stations were used to analyze long-term trends in rainfall events
with various durations during the wet season (May–October). Particular atte
ntion was given to short-duration rainfall lasting from a few minutes to seve
ral tens of minutes, and temporal changes in extreme rainfall characteristics were systematically examined.
First, long-term trends in the occurrence frequency, mean rainfall depth, and
maximum rainfall depth of extreme rainfall were compared and analyzed for dur
ation bins ranging from 1 to 60 minutes. The trends in event frequency and rai
nfall depth were found to vary with the degree of urbanization across regions.
Second, the limitations of fixed-clock-hour rainfall indices were assessed by co
mparing the 60-min maximum rainfall depth based on a moving (arbitrary) 60-
min window with the clock-hour (on-the-hour) 1-h rainfall depth. At most statio
ns, the moving-window 60-min continuous rainfall depth exceeded the correspon
ding clock-hour 1-h rainfall depth, indicating that moving-window estimation is
more effective than fixed-hour aggregation for representing peak rainfall depths.
Third, 30-year return-period rainfall quantiles for moving-window durations of
60, 120, and 180 minutes were estimated and compared with the corresponding fi
xed-duration design rainfall (fixed-time) quantiles. The moving-window design r
ainfall was greater than the fixed-time design rainfall at many stations.
This study is subject to uncertainties associated with the relatively short obs
ervation period (approximately 25 years) and the limited number of stations, inc
luding the selection of probability distributions, parameter estimation, and criteri
a for storm event separation. Nevertheless, the study is of both scientific and p
ractical value in that it simultaneously evaluated changes in extreme rainfall cha
racteristics using minute-resolution data and examined the adequacy of fixed-ti
me design rainfall. The proposed methodology and findings are expected to provi
de a basis for upgrading flood risk management criteria under climate change and
for establishing region-specific stormwater and flood mitigation strategies

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서론 1
• 1.1 연구배경 1
• 1.2 연구동향 2
• 1.3 연구내용 및 범위 3
• 제 2 장 연구이론 및 자료구축 5
• 2.1 이론적 배경 5
• 2.1.1 Sliding Selection Method(SSM) 5
• 2.1.2 Minimum Inter-event Time (MIT) 6
• 2.1.3 빈도분석7
• 2.2 대상지역 및 강우관측소 선정9
• 2.3 자료구축12
• 제 3 장 지역별 강우 특성 변화 14
• 3.1 지역별 극한 강우 발생빈도 변화 14
• 3.2 지역별 극한 강우 평균 강우량 변화 18
• 3.3 지역별 극한 강우 최대 강우량 변화 21
• 3.4 극한 강우 종합 분석 결과 24
• 제 4 장 지속시간별 강우사상 및 빈도 분석25
• 4.1 지속시간별 강우사상 발생빈도 비교 25
• 4.2 지역별 60분 연속 최대강우량 분석26
• 4.2.1 도시지역 60분 연속 강우 26
• 4.2.2 도농복합지역 60분 연속 강우 31
• 4.2.3 농촌지역 60분 연속강우36
• 4.2.4 지역별 60분 연속 강우 발생 및 강우량 분석 결과40
• 4.3 강우 빈도분석 및 확률강우량 비교41
• 4.3.1 임의시간 최대강우 데이터 41
• 4.3.2 빈도분석 결과 및 비교 52
• 제 5 장 결론 55
• 참 고 문 헌 57
• 요 지 59
• ABSTRACT60