(A) Study on Korea’s Energy Security Strategy : An Analysis of the Relationship Between Critical Minerals Prices and China-Related Factors

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically examines how China’s macroeconomic and policy-related factors influence the prices of four major critical minerals—lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements—using an ARDL-ECM. The objective is to identify mineral specific price volatility risks and propose policy directions to enhance Korea’s Strategy for Securing Critical Minerals(2023). To construct the empirical model, statistically significant China-related macro-financial, policy, geopolitical, and environmental variables are selected through backward stepwise selection. The findings show that the determinants affecting the prices of the four critical minerals differ substantially. Specifically, lithium prices respond sensitively to financial and speculative factors; nickel is affected by short term real sector shocks; cobalt reacts to long term real sector supply–demand fundamentals; and rare earth elements are influenced primarily by China’s policy and supply factors. These results suggest that each mineral follows a distinct market structure and price formation mechanism, implying differentiated risk profiles. Accordingly, this study argues that Korea’s critical mineral strategy should shift toward tailored resource-security measures that reflect the unique risk factors associated with each mineral.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 자기회귀시차분포 오차수정모형(ARDL-ECM)을 활용하여 중국의 거시·정책 요인이 리튬, 니켈, 코발트, 희토류 등 4대 핵심광물 가격에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석한다. 이를 통해 우리나라 에너지 안보를 강화하기 위해 광물별 가격 변동 리스크를 규명하고, 한국의「핵심광물 확보전략(2023)의 고도화 방안을 제안한다. 분석 과정에서는 후진제거법을 활용하여 다양한 중국의 거시·금융, 정책·지정학·환경 변수 중 통계적으로 유의한 요인을 선별하고, 각 변수가 광물 가격에 미치는 장단기 효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 네 가지 핵심광물 가격에 영향을 미치는 세부 중국변수는 상이하게 나타났다. 구체적으로 리튬은 금융 및 투기적 요인에, 니켈은 단기 실물 충격 요인에, 코발트는 장기 실물 수급 요인에, 희토류는 중국의 정책 및 공급 요인에 민감하게 반응하는 특성을 보였다. 이러한 결과는 각 광물이 각기 다른 시장 구조와 가격 변동 메커니즘을 지니고 있으며, 가격 리스크 요인 또한 차별화됨을 시사한다. 따라서 본 연구는 한국의 핵심광물 확보정책이 모든 광물을 포괄적으로 접근하는 것에서 벗어나 각 광물의 고유한 리스크 요인에 기반한 맞춤형 자원 안보 전략으로 개선되어야 함을 제안한다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION 1
• Ⅱ. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW 3
• 1. Definition of Critical Minerals and Selection of Minerals Analyzed 3
• 1.1. Definition of Critical Minerals 3
• 1.2. Selection of Minerals for Analysis 4
• 2. Theoretical Background - Characteristics of the Global Critical Minerals Market 5
• 2.1. Cournot Oligopoly Market 6
• ⑴ Market Dominance by a Few Producers and Strategic Output Decisions 6
• ⑵ Structural Constraints on Cartel Formation 7
• 2.2. Supply-Inelastic Market 9
• 2.3. Demand Structure of Industrial Essential Inputs 10
• 2.4. Theoretical Assumptions 11
• 3. Literature Review: Determinants of Mineral Price Volatility and Supply Chain Structures 13
• 3.1. Literature Review on Determinants of Mineral Price Movements 13
• ⑴ Real Supply–Demand Factors 14
• ⑵ Macroeconomic and Financial Factors 15
• ⑶ Policy, Geopolitical, and Climate Factors 16
• ⑷ Speculative Factors 16
• 3.2. Supply Chain Structures Across Value-Chain Stages for Critical Minerals 18
• ⑴ Lithium 18
• ⑵ Nickel 22
• ⑶ Cobalt 25
• ⑷ Rare Earth Elements 28
• 3.3. Research Questions and Hypothesis 31
• Ⅲ. DATA AND EMPIRICAL MODEL 33
• 1. Data 33
• 2. Empirical Model 40
• 3. Unit Root Tests (ADF, PP Tests) 42
• 4. Selection of the Optimal Model 43
• Ⅳ. EMPIRICAL RESULTS 45
• 1. Cointegration Test (ARDL Bounds Test) 45
• 2. Estimation Results of the ARDL Models 46
• 2.1. Lithium Model 47
• ⑴ Long-Run Effects 48
• ⑵ Short-Run Effects 50
• ⑶ Error-Correction Term 51
• ⑷ Model Stability Test 51
• 2.2. Nickel Model 52
• ⑴ Short-Run Effects 53
• ⑵ Model Stability Test 55
• 2.3. Cobalt Model 56
• ⑴ Long-Run Effects 57
• ⑵ Error-Correction Term 60
• ⑶ Model Stability Test 60
• 2.4. Rare Earths Model 61
• ⑴ Long-Run Effects 62
• ⑵ Error-Correction Term 64
• ⑶ Model Stability Test 64
• 2.5. Global Common Factors 65
• ⑴ Crude Oil Prices 66
• ⑵ Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 67
• 2.6. Summary of Results 68
• Ⅴ. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 71
• 1. Market Characteristics of Each Mineral 71
• 2. Mineral-Specific Risk Profiles and Implications 74
• 3. Structural Limitations of Korea’s Strategy for Securing Critical Minerals 76
• 4. Policy Prioritization for Strengthening Critical Mineral Security 77
• 5. Integrated Policy Recommendations 81
• Ⅵ. CONCLUSION 82
• REFERENCES 85
• APPENDICS 88
• KOREAN ABSTRACT 91