Projection of Rainy Season Onset and Cessation in Future Climate Scenarios : A Case Study of Java Island, Indonesia = 미래 기후 시나리오에서의 우기 시작 및 종료 예측 : 인도네시아 자바 섬 사례 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Java Island, which has a monsoon climate, is highly vulnerable to seasonal changes influenced by climate change. Accurate predictions about the start and end of the rainy and dry seasons are crucial. This study aims to determine the future distribution of rainfall patterns and project changes in the onset and end of the rainy season on Java Island using climate model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and a model weighting process was also carried out. Model performance was evaluated using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric, Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) bias correction method. The analysis results show that rainfall in the future is projected to decrease during the MFR period and then increase during the FFR period. Additionally, the dry season is projected to become shorter, with the rainy season starting earlier compared to normal conditions over the past ten years. The western and central parts of Java have wetter conditions compared to the eastern part. The findings of this research can be used to improve understanding of climate dynamics and the potential impacts of seasonal changes in the future, so policymakers in the Java region need to implement adequate adaptation and prevention measures.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract i
• Table of Contents ii
• List of Tables vi
• List of Figures vii
• Chapter 1 Introduction 1
• 1.1 Research Background 1
• 1.2 Research Objectives 5
• 1.3 Research Design 7
• Chapter 2 Literature Review. 10
• 2.1 Basic Theory of Seasons and Climate 10
• 2.1.1 Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia 10
• 2.1.2 The Influence of Climate Variability 12
• 2.1.3 Seasonal Zone (ZOM) in Indonesia 22
• 2.1.4 Season Prediction Information 24
• 2.2 Climate Change and It Is Effects 29
• 2.2.1 Global and Regional Climate Change 29
• 2.2.2 Impact of Climate Change 32
• 2.3 Climate Projection Models and Scenarios 36
• 2.3.1 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) . 36
• 2.3.2 Climate Scenarios 38
• 2.3.3 Projections based on CMIP6 42
• Chapter 3 Methodology 44
• 3.1 Research Design 44
• 3.2 Research Procedure 44
• 3.2.1 Study Area 44
• 3.2.2 Data Collection Procedures 47
• 3.3 Data Processing and Analysis 53
• 3.3.1 Bias Correction Methods 53
• 3.3.2 Weighted Ensemble 56
• 3.3.3 Data Processing 57
• 3.4 Research Framework 59
• Chapter 4 Results and Analysis 60
• 4.1 General Overview 60
• 4.1.1 Overview Data 60
• 4.1.2 Area Study Climatology 62
• 4.2 Evaluation of Raw and Bias-Corrected Model Output 67
• 4.2.1 Comparison of Model Performance Between Bias and Non-
• Bias Conditions 67
• 4.2.2 Quantitative Evaluation of Model Bias Using NRMSE and
• KGE 70
• 4.3 Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Rainfall in the Future 73
• 4.3.1 Spatial Distribution of Average Rainfall 73
• 4.3.2 Average Spatial Rainfall Anomaly 77
• 4.3.3 Temporal Pattern of Precipitation 79
• 4.4 Potential Shifts in Seasonal Onset 81
• 4.4.1 Boxplot of 10-Day Average Rainfall 81
• 4.4.2 Projected 10-Day Rainfall Distribution 84
• 4.5 Discussion 86
• Chapter 5 Conclusion 90
• 5.1 Summary 90
• 5.2 Research Implications 92
• 5.3 Limitations and Recommendations for Future Research 96
• References 98
• 국문초록 123
• Acknowledgment 124
• Appendix 1 125
• Appendix 2 126
• Appendix 3 127