Evaluating the Efficacy of Tanzania’s Climate Policy : Understanding the Sectoral Contributions = 탄자니아 기후 정책의 효능 평가 : 부문별 기여도 이해 각 구성 요소에 대한 설명

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study evaluates the effectiveness of Tanzania's climate policy using a
quantitative time-series analysis of data from 2000 to 2024, with an emphasis on
mitigation and adaptation strategies in the important agriculture and transport sectors.
The method combines descriptive analysis, correlation, the Error Correction Model
(ECM), and Differenced OLS modeling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in
connection to macroeconomic (GDP), demographic (population), and biophysical
(Agricultural Yields and Rainfall) parameters. To provide a more precise view of
efficiency and decoupling, this study generates normalized indicators (emission
intensity per capita and per GDP). The findings show that Tanzania faces a
significant difficult in achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
targets due to a strong historical relationship between economic growth and
emissions. Econometric simulation indicates a high long-run absolute
coupling between transport emissions and GDP for the ECM term). The research
indicates that the intensity of transport emissions remains constant. and that the
policy intervention dummy (DNDC) had no statistically significant effect on causing a short-run shock. This policy failure highlights the substantial link between transport per capita and population increase (= 0.93), emphasizing the influence of urbanization and mobility demand. Agriculture sector has notable long-term relative decoupling (emission intensity drop from 2.0 to 0.66 GHG per $1000 GDP).
However, the Differenced OLS model confirms that the CSA and NDC policy
interventions had no statistically significant effect on effectiveness, implying that
the decoupling is caused by structural trends rather than policy shocks. In addition,
analysis identified rice yield as the most important biophysical determinant of
emission, which is consistent with methane emission from continuously flooded
paddy fields.
The analysis finds that Tanzania's climate policy has worked well to make the
agriculture sector more efficient and help it adapt, but it hasn't worked as well to cut
emissions in the rapidly increasing transport sector and the rice sector, which has a
lot of emissions. To fulfill the NDC obligations, more general policy steps are
needed, such as speeding up the use of CSA (such Alternate Wetting and Drying) in
irrigated rice and putting in place strong low-carbon transport policies.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract i
• Table of Contents iii
• List of Tables v
• Abbreviations vii
• CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION １
• 1.1 Background １
• 1.2 Problem statement ３
• 1.3 Research objectives ４
• 1.3.1 Main objectives ４
• 1.3.2 Specific Objective ４
• 1.4 Relevance of the Study ４
• 1.5 Scope of the Study ５
• 2.1 Introduction ６
• 2.2 Climate Change and Policy in the Global South ６
• 2.2.1 The Development Mitigation Dilemma ６
• 2.2.2 Decoupling and the Growth Emissions Debate ７
• 2.3 Tanzania’s Climate Policy Commitment ８
• 2.4 Sectoral Contributions to Emissions ９
• 2.4.1 Agriculture as an Emission Hotspot ９
• 2.4.3 Transport as a Rapidly Growing Contributor １１
• 2.5 Empirical Evidence on Drivers of Emissions １２
• 2.6 Normalized Indicators in Policy Evaluation １４
• 2.7 Implementation Challenges and Policy Efficacy １５
• 2.8 Methodological Gaps in Existing Research １６
• 2.9 Synthesis and Relevance of key Findings １７
• 2.10 Conclusion １８
• CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY １９
• 3.1 Study area description １９
• 3.2 Research Design ２０
• 3.3 Data Sources ２０
• 3.4 Variables ２１
• 3.4.1 Dependent Variable: ２１
• 3.4.2 Independent Variables: ２２
• iv
• 3.4.3 Control Variables ２２
• 3.5 Analytical Methods ２３
• 3.5.1 Data Cleaning and Preparation: ２３
• 3.5.2 Descriptive Analysis:. ２３
• 3.5.3 Correlation Analysis: ２３
• 3.5.4 Regression Analysis: Differenced OLS ２３
• 3.5.6 Normalized Indicator Construction: ２５
• 3.5.7 Policy Linkage and Interpretation: ２５
• 3.6 Methodological Contributions and Gaps ２６
• CHAPTER 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ２８
• 4.1 Introduction ２８
• 4.2 Dataset presentation analysis ２８
• 4.3 Trendline and Correlation Analysis ３４
• 4.4 Regression Analysis and policy efficacy ３９
• 4.4.1 Transport sector Absolute coupling ３９
• 4.4.2 Agriculture sector Decoupling and Hotspot Analysis ４０
• 4.5 Normalization and Relative indicators in policy evaluation ４４
• CHAPTER 5: RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION. ５１
• 5.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ５１
• 5.2 CONCLUSION ５３
• Reference ５４
• 국문 초록 ６１
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ６３
• v